It’s March so that means one thing in college basketball: it’s almost time for the madness! Team around the country have entered the final games of the regular season schedule so the chances to make impressions on the NCAA Tournament selection committee are now slim. Where do Virginia and other teams stand in the bracketology?
My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX and can be viewed here. It is my 7th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. Last year I finished tied for 4th for the most accurate bracket! I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com. Discuss it on the message board. This bracket release focuses on where teams stand as of 12 p.m. on Friday, march 1.
For Sabre fans, a big win for UVA on Wednesday at Boston College gave the Hoos a 4th Q2 win to go with 3 Q1 wins. Notre Dame also as of this update has a NET of 135, which raised the road loss there from Q3 to Q2, erasing a bad loss. But the cutoff for that being a Q2 loss is the top 135, so ND needs to keep playing well or that will slide back to Q3.
I have Virginia as the 6th team clear in the field right now and a 10 seed. The game this weekend is an opportunity to lock up a bid. I think a win at Duke would move UVA up several spots on the S Curve to probably 9,10,11 teams safely in pending other results. This would probably be enough to get a bid even with a loss to Georgia Tech assuming the Hoos didn’t pick up another bad loss at the ACC Tournament. Two wins to close the season would make Virginia a lock.
I think the more realistic scenario is that the Hoos play Duke competitively to semi-competitively and beat GT. That probably has UVA in the field heading into the ACC Tournament, but having to still avoid a bad loss and in the position where picking up a quality win may clinch a bid. The key this weekend is to avoid a humiliating blowout. Anything other than that is either positive or neutral. Let’s recreate the 2022 magic in Cameron. Go Hoos.
Here’s the full bracketology for this update.
| Seed | Power | Team | Seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Purdue* | 1 |
| 1 | 2 | Houston* | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | UConn* | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | Arizona* | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | North Carolina* | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | Tennessee* | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | Marquette | 2 |
| 2 | 8 | Kansas | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | Baylor | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | Iowa St. | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | Duke | 3 |
| 3 | 12 | Alabama | 3 |
| 4 | 13 | Creighton | 4 |
| 4 | 14 | Illinois | 4 |
| 4 | 15 | Auburn | 4 |
| 4 | 16 | San Diego St. | 4 |
| 5 | 17 | Kentucky | 5 |
| 5 | 18 | Clemson | 5 |
| 5 | 19 | Dayton | 5 |
| 5 | 20 | BYU | 5 |
| 6 | 21 | Wisconsin | 6 |
| 6 | 22 | Utah St. | 6 |
| 6 | 23 | Washington St. | 6 |
| 6 | 24 | South Carolina | 6 |
| 7 | 25 | Saint Mary's (CA)* | 7 |
| 7 | 26 | Florida | 7 |
| 7 | 27 | Texas Tech | 7 |
| 7 | 28 | Oklahoma | 7 |
| 8 | 29 | Colorado St. | 8 |
| 8 | 30 | Northwestern | 8 |
| 8 | 31 | TCU | 8 |
| 8 | 32 | Boise St.* | 8 |
| 9 | 33 | Nevada | 9 |
| 9 | 34 | Michigan St. | 9 |
| 9 | 35 | Nebraska | 9 |
| 9 | 36 | Mississippi St. | 9 |
| 10 | 37 | Texas | 10 |
| 10 | 38 | Fla. Atlantic | 10 |
| 10 | 39 | Virginia | 10 |
| 10 | 40 | Gonzaga | 10 |
| 11a | 41 | New Mexico | 11a |
| 11b | 42 | Seton Hall | 11b |
| 11c | 43 | Providence | 11c |
| 11d | 44 | Utah | 11d |
| 11 | 45 | Indiana St.* | 11 |
| 11 | 46 | Princeton* | 11 |
| 12 | 47 | Grand Canyon* | 12 |
| 12 | 48 | Richmond* | 12 |
| 12 | 49 | South Fla.* | 12 |
| 12 | 50 | McNeese* | 12 |
| 13 | 51 | App State* | 13 |
| 13 | 52 | Samford* | 13 |
| 13 | 53 | Louisiana Tech* | 13 |
| 13 | 54 | UC Irvine* | 13 |
| 14 | 55 | Vermont* | 14 |
| 14 | 56 | Akron* | 14 |
| 14 | 57 | Col. of Charleston* | 14 |
| 14 | 58 | High Point* | 14 |
| 15 | 59 | Oakland* | 15 |
| 15 | 60 | Eastern Washington* | 15 |
| 15 | 61 | Morehead St.* | 15 |
| 15 | 62 | Colgate* | 15 |
| 16 | 63 | Fairfield* | 16 |
| 16 | 64 | South Dakota St.* | 16 |
| 16a | 65 | Norfolk St.* | 16a |
| 16a | 66 | Eastern Kentucky* | 16a |
| 16b | 67 | Merrimack* | 16b |
| 16b | 68 | Grambling St.* | 16b |
- Last Four In: Utah, Providence, Seton Hall, New Mexico
- First Four Out: Wake Forest, Colorado, St. Johns, Kansas St.
- Next Four Out: Villanova, Oregon, Ole Miss, Iowa
When you look at the rest of the bracket, it was a big win for Gonzaga on Thursday night, adding a 2nd Q1 win. I moved them up to my last 10 seed this morning and out of Dayton for now. A win @ St. Mary’s on Saturday would likely lock in a bid no matter what happens in the WCC Tournament.
Other big bubble games this weekend:
Fresno State @ Nevada. Nevada is pretty safely in but a loss here would be Q4 and would knock them down closer to the bubble. A win though would probably lock up a bid as their last two games are against quality competition.
Tulane @ FAU. FAU is probably going to be in, but the resume is not so great that it can lay an egg here. This is the last chance for a bad loss before the end of the season. The Owls need to win this one and then they are probably a lock. A loss here though with two tough games to end the season and the possibility of a bad loss opportunity in the AAC Tournament would increase the risk they may not make the field. Also, for bubble teams the best case is either FAU tanks out of the field or they get hot and carry that momentum into the AAC Tournament and win it.
Villanova @ Providence. A very bubbly game. Providence is my 2nd to last team in and Villanova my 5th team out. A Q1 chance for Nova and Q2 for Providence. A 4th Q1 win for Nova may get it in my bracket on Monday as the NET would probably rise into the top 30 as well. For Providence this is a chance to add another quality win and solidify a spot. One of these teams will be in decent shape Monday the other with work to do.
Oregon @ Arizona. Oregon needs a needle-moving win and this is the chance. It would be a 3rd Q win to go along with 4 Q2 and only 1 bad loss. The metrics are mediocre but would take a big rise with a win here. The Ducks finish with Colorado and Utah at home, which are also good chances to add quality wins. If Oregon wins out, it probably makes the field, but 2 out of 3 may have the team right on the edge heading into the PAC-12 Tournament.
Oklahoma St @ Texas. Texas is in decent shape and games after this are quality. So a win here may secure a bid for Texas but a loss would increase the anxiety.
USF @ Charlotte. South Florida is ranked in the national poll thus it would seem hard to keep it out of the field. But South Florida has a NET of 85, mediocre quads, 1-0 vs Q2, 4-3 vs Q2, 2 Q4 losses, and bad predictive metrics average of 97 but ok performance metrics average of 54.5. This is the Bulls’ last chance of a quality win before the conference tournament. A win here and winning out could bust their NET into the 70s which may have them in possible consideration of an at-large bid if they can avoid a bad loss in the AAC Tournament.
Mississippi State @ Auburn. MSU is pretty safely in the field at the moment and it has no more bad loss opportunities ahead. The next two on the road are Q1 opportunities and the Bulldogs finish with a Q2 chance at home. Winning 1 of the last 3 would probably seal a bid, but losing all 3 would probably have them in a somewhat precarious situation heading into the SEC Tournament though likely still in the field.
Iowa @ Northwestern. Iowa is my 8th team out of the field this morning. But the Hawkeyes’ last two games are quad 2 chances and wins in both would give them 4 Q1s, 5 Q2s, and only one bad loss (Q3) plus respectable metrics. Win the last two and Iowa may be in the field heading into the B1G Tournament. A split would probably leave work to do.
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech. Wake finishes with this Q1 chance, GT at home (Q3), and Clemson at home (Q1). I think if Wake wins 2 of these, it is probably in good shape heading into conference tournament week.
Virginia @ Duke . Virginia finishes up with this Q1 road game and Q3 game at home vs Georgia Tech. The recipe for a bid may be avoid a blowout Saturday, beat GT, and avoid a bad loss at the ACC Tournament.
Texas A&M @ Georgia. Texas A&M has fallen off a cliff with 5 straight losses and now a bad record at 15-13 and 4 bad losses (Q3). The Aggies’ last 3 games are Q2 chances. They may need to win all 3 and then at minimum avoid a bad loss in the SEC Tournament to have a chance.
Kansas State @ Cincy. Both of these teams are out as of now with KSU closer in for me. KSU finishes with 3 Q1 chances. Winning 2 of 3 may be enough to get it in. Cincy’s schedule doesn’t afford the same opportunities with this 1 Q2 and 1 Q1. It probably isn’t enough even if the Bearcats win out to get them close yet. Winning out and winning a couple at the Big 12 Tournament games could change things. If the committee cares about the conference tournament.
New Mexico @ Boise State. Boise St. is safe. New Mexico on the other hand has work to do. The quads are mediocre 3-4 vs Q1, 2-1 vs Q2, 2 bad losses (Q3/Q4). The NET is good at 25, but the performance and predictive metrics averages are mediocre at 45.5 and 46. The Lobos have 2 Q1 roads games left and a Q4 home game vs Fresno. Win out and they are good. Lose both Q1s and they are probably barely in or out heading into the MWC Tournament. A 2-1 finish and avoiding a bad conference tournament loss could be enough.
Ole Miss @ Missouri. A must win for Ole Miss and it won’t really help the resume anyway. The Rebels finish with 2 Q2 games so winning out would at least keep them in the convo heading into the SEC Tournament if not really close.
Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s. I talked about Gonzaga above. Simply, I think if the Zags avoid a bad loss the rest of the season they are probably in the field now. A win here would clinch it.
Notes on my selection process:
- I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
- Conference champions (* teams) in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
