The final regular season weekend is on deck and the bubble is full of hopeful teams when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. That includes Virginia, who hosts Georgia Tech on Saturday night. How does the bracketology stack up with March Madness on the horizon?
My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX and can be viewed here. It is my 7th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. Last year I finished tied for 4th for the most accurate bracket! I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com. Discuss it on the message board. This bracket release focuses on where teams stand as of 9 a.m. on Friday, March 8.
For Sabre fans,we are in crunch time now for UVA’s at-large tournament chances. I have Virginia as my 5th team in the bracket as of Friday, the last bye. Some teams around Virginia (Seton Hall and Colorado) improved their chances this week, while others (Villanova, Utah, Wake Forest) did not. I think UVA is likely anywhere from the 2nd or so team in to the 5th or 6th team in. So they are in the zone of teams that could lose their spot easily with a bad loss or if multiple teams picked up big wins below them.
For Virginia, the game against Georgia Tech on Saturday is a must win. A loss would be a Q3 loss and let’s not forget that Notre Dame’s NET is only 128 this morning If the Irish get blown out in Blacksburg on Saturday or pick up a bad loss in the ACC Tournament next week, that could slide into Q3 range as well. The best case scenario for Virginia is to blow out Georgia Tech, which would improve the Hoos’ metrics and for teams around and below them to lose. A perfect scenario of that combo could have the Wahoos in pretty good shape heading into the ACC Tournament. A loss would likely slide Virginia into the first four out heading into the ACC Tournament and mean they may need to make the Finals to get a bid. A close win is ok too at this point.
I think simply if Virginia wins this game and its quarterfinal game Thursday, it is likely in the field. A win against GT and a close loss in the QFs and the Hoos may be fine but will be dependent on other teams. A blowout loss Thursday may imperil their bid.
This weekend is huge not only for Virginia but for many bubble teams across the country so we will have a much better idea Monday what the Hoos need to do to get a bid. Just beat Georgia Tech and go from there.
| Seed | Power | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Purdue* |
| 1 | 2 | Houston* |
| 1 | 3 | UConn* |
| 1 | 4 | Tennessee* |
| 2 | 5 | Arizona* |
| 2 | 6 | North Carolina* |
| 2 | 7 | Iowa St. |
| 2 | 8 | Baylor |
| 3 | 9 | Marquette |
| 3 | 10 | Kansas |
| 3 | 11 | Duke |
| 3 | 12 | Creighton |
| 4 | 13 | Alabama |
| 4 | 14 | Illinois |
| 4 | 15 | Auburn |
| 4 | 16 | Kentucky |
| 5 | 17 | BYU |
| 5 | 18 | San Diego St. |
| 5 | 19 | Clemson |
| 5 | 20 | South Carolina |
| 6 | 21 | Florida |
| 6 | 22 | Wisconsin |
| 6 | 23 | Utah St.* |
| 6 | 24 | Texas Tech |
| 7 | 25 | Washington St. |
| 7 | 26 | Nevada |
| 7 | 27 | Dayton |
| 7 | 28 | Saint Mary's (CA)* |
| 8 | 29 | Oklahoma |
| 8 | 30 | Gonzaga |
| 8 | 31 | Northwestern |
| 8 | 32 | Colorado St. |
| 9 | 33 | Michigan St. |
| 9 | 34 | Boise St. |
| 9 | 35 | Texas |
| 9 | 36 | Nebraska |
| 10 | 37 | TCU |
| 10 | 38 | Fla. Atlantic |
| 10 | 39 | Mississippi St. |
| 10 | 40 | Virginia |
| 11a | 41 | Seton Hall |
| 11b | 42 | Colorado |
| 11c | 43 | Villanova |
| 11d | 44 | New Mexico |
| 11 | 45 | Indiana St.* |
| 11 | 46 | South Fla.* |
| 12 | 47 | Richmond* |
| 12 | 48 | Princeton* |
| 12 | 49 | Grand Canyon* |
| 12 | 50 | McNeese* |
| 13 | 51 | App State* |
| 13 | 52 | Samford* |
| 13 | 53 | UC Irvine* |
| 13 | 54 | Vermont* |
| 14 | 55 | Col. of Charleston* |
| 14 | 56 | Oakland* |
| 14 | 57 | Akron* |
| 14 | 58 | High Point* |
| 15 | 59 | Eastern Washington* |
| 15 | 60 | Morehead St.* |
| 15 | 61 | Sam Houston St.* |
| 15 | 62 | Colgate* |
| 16 | 63 | Quinnipiac* |
| 16 | 64 | South Dakota St.* |
| 16a | 65 | Stetson* |
| 16a | 66 | Norfolk St.* |
| 16b | 67 | Merrimack* |
| 16b | 68 | Grambling St.* |
- Last Four In: New Mexico, Villanova, Colorado, Seton Hall
- First Four Out: St. Johns, Providence, Iowa, Texas A&M
- Next Four Out: Utah, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Drake
When you look at the rest of the bracket,there are a ton of big bubble games this weekend.
Missouri Valley Tournament. This kicks into full swing Friday night with the quarterfinals as Indiana State battles Missouri State. I am not sure if Indiana State’s resume is good enough for at-large inclusion or not. The team is 1-3 vs Q1 and 4-1 vs Q2, that is 5-4 so not bad. It has 1 Q4 loss though and no wins over at-large worthy teams. The metrics aren’t bad so ISU has a shot at inclusion, unless it loses to someone not named Drake or Bradley. Bubble teams should pull for Indiana State to win this tournament this weekend.
Georgetown @ St. Johns. A must win for St. Johns. A win may not put the team in, but a loss would make it very difficult. The Red Storm needs to win this one and probably pick up at least one quality win in the Big East Tournament to have a chance.
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss. Ole Miss has fallen far enough down that the Rebels likely have to win out to at least the SEC semis to have a shot. A&M would pick up a 5th Q2 win here to give it 11 Q1/Q2 wins, but it also has 4 Q3 losses. The Aggies probably need to win this one and 1 or 2 quality wins in the SEC Tournament to get a bid.
Iowa State @ Kansas State. KSU is not even in my first 8 out right now. But this would be a Q1 win and if the Wildcats stack this with a couple quality wins in the Big 12 Tournament, they would be in the convo.
Creighton @ Villanova. Huge game for Nova. A win would put the Wildcats in decent shape heading into the Big East Tournament. They would have to avoid a bad loss, but picking up 1 quality win there and they are probably in. However a loss and they fall to 17-14, only 3 games above .500, which is usually a disqualifier though not always. A loss would mean they probably have to at least get to the semifinals to have a decent chance. Odd resume.
South Carolina @ Mississippi State. I think Miss. St. is probably in regardless of this although a loss here and a bad loss in the SEC Tournament would make things perilous. Win here and most doubt is removed.
South Florida @ Tulsa. USF has an odd resume as well. The Bulls have to win here. But a win here and avoiding a bad loss in the AAC Tournament would present an interesting case to the committee.
Colorado @ Oregon State. A must win for Colorado to not pick up a bad loss right now. Win here and pick up a quality win in the PAC-12 Tournament and the Buffs are likely in.
Clemson @ Wake Forest. A must win for Wake, which would give it a third Q1 win to go with 5 Q2 wins and only one bad loss. But the Deacs likely have to also pick up at least 1 quality win in the ACC Tournament to have any shot.
Utah @ Oregon. A must win Q1 opportunity for Utah. But the Utes likely have to stack this with at least 1 more quality win in the PAC-12 Tournament.
NC State @ Pittsburgh. This isn’t a quality win opportunity for Pitt, so it will likely need to pick up at least 2 quality wins in the ACC Tournament on top of winning this one.
UConn @ Providence. Win this one and Providence is back in the picture and maybe back in my field. The Friars need to win and maybe pick up one more quality win in the Big East Tournament to get a bid.
Georgia Tech @ Virginia. A must win for Virginia. The Hoos can’t afford to pick up a bad loss right now. Win this one and avoid a bad loss in the ACC Tournament and they may be in, win this one and pick up a quality win in the ACC Tournament would likely be a lock.
Depaul @ Seton Hall. A must win for Seton Hall as a loss would be disastrous. A win and 1 quality win in the Big East Tournament would have the team sitting pretty.
New Mexico @ Utah State. A big opportunity for New Mexico. A win here would would put it in pretty good shape. But even with the win, it may need one more quality win in the MWC Tournament.
Notes on my selection process:
- I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
- Conference champions (* teams) in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
