WASHINGTON D.C. – For most of Tony Bennett’s tenure at the University of Virginia, Selection Sunday has been a stress-free experience for Cavalier fans. However, according to most college basketball experts, the Hoos enter the ACC Tournament in a precarious position. Despite a 22-9 regular season record and a third-place finish in the conference, Virginia finds itself squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
According to Bracket Matrix, a site that aggregates the opinions of college basketball pundits and other bracketologists, the Cavaliers are in a decent position to receive an invite. At the time of this writing, Virginia was included in the field in 89 of 98 submitted brackets. Many of these predictions have the Hoos opening tournament play in the “First Four” games in Dayton on Tuesday or Wednesday.
However, most blue-and-orange clad fans we spoke to at Capital One Arena on Wednesday expressed confidence in UVA’s resume. According to long-time Virginia fan Jack: “I think finishing third in the regular season in the ACC which is perennially one of the hardest basketball conferences in the country is enough on the resume to make the tournament.” The emphasis on conference positioning was the most common response among Virginia supporters.
Greg, a Washington D.C native and Virginia graduate, pointed to the Cavaliers’ consistently stifling defense as a justification for making the field. “I just think their defense is too good not to be in the tournament. A team like that is always going to be able to make a run if they get hot.” Indeed, UVA’s defense ranks third in the nation in points allowed per game and seventh in adjusted efficiency.
However, many predictive metrics are not as supportive of Virginia receiving a bid. The Cavaliers have struggled with offensive production throughout the season, scoring fewer than 60 points on 12 occasions. If the Hoos are left out of the Big Dance, the team’s 191st ranked adjusted efficiency on offense will be the primary reason. However, several UVA fans expressed consternation at the barrage of rankings and statistics that are frequently cited by the media. Hank, a former tennis player at the university, expressed confusion over the team’s subpar NET ranking: “They win the last game, and they go down in the rankings?”
Not everyone was as positive about the prospects for Virginia as most fans we encountered. When we asked Buck about whether the Cavaliers had done enough to earn a spot in the tournament, he succinctly answered “No.” He, like many commentators, felt that UVA needed to win at least one game in the conference tournament to secure a spot. Even the optimistic Greg expressed concern that the Cavaliers “don’t have that many signature wins” to hang their hats on.
Despite Virginia’s turbulent basketball season, the fans we spoke to remain confident in Tony Bennett’s coaching ability and the team’s chances if they are chosen for the NCAA Tournament.
Karen expressed the most confidence of anyone we spoke to in the arena: “I’m optimistic. I mean, I know looking at the history, our tournament play hasn’t been as great as we would have liked, but I’m always optimistic.” Jack expressed similar feelings despite early exits from Virginia the last two years: “I think we have the best coach in the country, and I always feel good about any game we play, honestly. Maybe there’s a little bit more pressure with the NCAA because last year’s loss was tough, but I always feel good going in.”
Facing Virginia With The Defensive Player Of The Year
On Monday, Reece Beekman became just the third player ever to win back-to-back ACC Defensive Player of the Year awards, joining North Carolina’s John Henson and Duke’s Shelden Williams. For four years now, Beekman has been terrorizing opposing guards, and he looks to continue that on Thursday against Boston College’s Jaeden Zackary. Beekman had had 18 points and 8 assists in the game at BC too.
When asked about facing Beekman, Zackary said, “I know what he’s capable of – a great player defensively [and] offensively … probably one of, if not the best point guard in our conference.” Quentin Post also brought up Beekman during his postgame remarks. “The key to me is I think Reece Beekman. I think he’s a really good player. I think he really hurt us in the first game. We’ve got to find a way to stop him.”
Beekman was primarily matched up against Zackary in the first meeting, keeping the talented junior to 12 points, which is right at his season average. Beekman may also spend time chasing Claudell Harris Jr., who scored a game-high 27 points against Clemson on Wednesday. It may take another vintage defensive performance from the ACC’s best defender to propel the Hoos to the conference semifinals.
Letting It Fly
When Virginia traveled to Chestnut Hill two weeks ago, it was a must win game for the Cavaliers to keep their NCAA hopes alive. The Hoos escaped with a 72-68 victory thanks to timely outside shooting from Jacob Groves and Isaac McKneely. Though the Hoos have one of the conference’s most capable 3-point shooters in McKneely, Virginia takes fewer shots from behind the arc per game (17.6) than any other ACC program. However, defeating Boston College in a rematch may require the Cavaliers to let it fly when the opportunity arises. The Eagles rank 262nd nationally in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 35.1% on the season.
Keeping opposing shooters in check has clearly been a point of emphasis for Earl Grant’s squad entering the ACC Tournament. After allowing Miami to shoot just 24.1% from the perimeter on Tuesday night, Boston College managed another strong defensive performance by holding Clemson to just 4-20 shooting on 3’s Wednesday.
Virginia Post Containment
Boston College forward Quentin Post has been the engine for the Eagles’ offense all season, leading the team in scoring, rebounding, and blocks as well as 3-point and free throw percentage. On Monday, he was named to the All-ACC Second Team and the conference’s All-Defensive team. Post found himself in early foul trouble against Clemson on Wednesday, which limited his first-half minutes. However, he still impacted the game with 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists.
Post presented a difficult matchup for the Hoos in the first meeting, scoring 24 points and securing 10 rebounds. He also was a perfect 11-11 from the charity stripe and managed to foul out Blake Buchanan, who drew the defensive assignment for significant minutes down the stretch. During Wednesday’s postgame press conference, Post expressed confidence in how he played during the first meeting and the matchup with Virginia’s interior.
“I think we played a great game against Virginia the first time,” Post said. “They’re kind of thin up front a little bit, so that gave me some opportunity to get down low and score some points.”
Tony Bennett’s Pack-Line Defense has historically shown a vulnerability to forwards who can stretch the defense with outside shooting. Additionally, Virginia often likes to trap on some post touches, which can lead to open 3-point shooting when rotations are late on the back end. There’s no doubt that the Dutch forward is one of the best big men in the ACC and containing him will be a key to success for the Hoos on Thursday night.
Fan Choices
During the ACC Tournament on Wednesday, the Preferred Walk-Ons Podcast caught up with fans from around the league to measure their confidence level in their teams’ chances to win the event. If your team can’t win, then who do you want to claim the title? Check it out.
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