Though the ACC is often overlooked by many in the college football media, it certainly provided its share of drama in the season’s opening week.
North Carolina surrendered 40 points in the fourth quarter to Appalachian State – including two touchdowns in the game’s final 31 seconds – but still managed to eke out a victory in Boone. NC State escaped with a win in Greenville after East Carolina’s kicker missed an extra point and a field goal in the final minutes. Florida State spoiled Brian Kelly’s debut at LSU with a blocked extra point with zeroes on the clock. Purely from an entertainment perspective, it was one of the most engaging opening weekends in recent history for a conference desperately needing a shot in the arm.
There will always be some level of calamity when gambling on college football; in fact, this randomness is precisely what makes betting on amateur sports so exciting. However, it is still too early to make many sweeping generalizations of how the season will go based on a single game. My advice is to use information from Week 1, but don’t overreact or disregard your preseason instincts. Sportsbooks are in the business of accurately measuring public opinion, and casual viewers tend to react to whatever they have seen most recently. If you can avoid this tendency, you can find value as the season progresses into its second week.
Virginia Week 2 Forecast
Virginia +4.5 at Illinois. Under 57.5.
For better and worse, Virginia’s performance against Richmond reduces the urge to overreact. This is because the Cavaliers played very much as anticipated. The offensive approach was indeed more balanced, featuring a greater commitment to running the ball than in 2021. There were several moments of brilliance from Brennan Armstrong, both in the passing game and on the ground. However, the offense also suffered from turnovers and stretches of ineffectiveness in the second half. The defense looked improved, but still struggled at times to contain a Spiders rushing attack that averaged nearly five yards per attempt. At the end of the day, I wasn’t encouraged or discouraged by what I saw from Tony Elliott’s program; the Cavaliers very much looked the part of a decent team that is still a work in progress.
We will get a clearer picture of Virginia’s season prospects after a trip to Champaign, Illinois. The run defense will be challenged throughout the game by Chase Brown, who through two games already has 55 carries and 350 yards. Bret Bielema is known for implementing a run-first approach that sets up opportunities for play-action once the secondary creeps in. Quarterback Tommy DeVito, formerly of Syracuse, has played well to start the year for the Illini, throwing 4 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Still, I think UVA needs to sell out to slow down the run game and force DeVito to try and win the game from the pocket.
Vegas sportsbooks were not deterred in naming Illinois as the home favorite despite a tough loss at Indiana last week. Though the Illini ran the ball effectively, they had trouble stopping the Hoosiers’ passing attack. This is where UVA should have the advantage as well. If Brennan Armstrong can limit turnovers, Cavalier wideouts should have a productive afternoon. It figures to be a tight game, but I give Virginia a slight edge. My prediction is a 27-24 win for the Hoos.
Week 2 Best Selections
- Season record: 3-1-1
Wisconsin -17 vs. Washington State: Wisconsin pitched a 38-0 shutout against Illinois State in the opening week. It was the Badgers’ 45th win in the last 46 games against non-conference opponents at home. Though Wisconsin is known for its ability to control the line of scrimmage and manage the clock with a run-first offense, the game against Illinois State showed that the Badgers have homerun playmaking ability as well. Braelon Allen scored on a 96 yard touchdown run and Graham Mertz connected with Chimere Dike on a 74-yard completion that set up the team’s third touchdown drive. Wisconsin has covered in its last four games as a 17+ point favorite; I expect a similar result on Saturday against a middling PAC-12 opponent.
North Carolina -7 at Georgia State: This line feels like a bit of an overreaction to one of the more public spectacles of the weekend. Yes, North Carolina’s defense struggled mightily against Appalachian State. However, the Mountaineers are a very good team and the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Georgia State does not have the same level of talent as its conference rivals nor the same preseason expectations. In the opener against South Carolina, quarterback Darren Grainger struggled, completing only 7 of 29 pass attempts. I am sure he will be more effective against the Tar Heels, but I do not think the Panthers can match North Carolina’s firepower. Through two games, Drake Maye has thrown for 646 yards, 9 touchdowns, and no interceptions. If wide receiver Josh Downs can return from injury this week as expected, Maye will have yet another weapon at his disposal.
Army +2.5 vs. UTSA: The Roadrunners travel to West Point as a short favorite after a hard-fought three-overtime home loss to a ranked Houston program. I think this “near miss” is the primary driver for the line. Army lost in Week 1 to a decent Coastal Carolina team that had the advantage of the entire offseason to prepare for the option offense. UTSA will only have a few days to gameplan against it. The Black Knights have played well from within the friendly confines of Michie Stadium, winning 13 of the last 15 home games. There is the strong potential for a letdown from UTSA after an emotional opening week loss.
Fresno State +1 vs. Oregon State: Oregon State’s dominant victory over Boise State was one of the bigger surprises of Week 1. However, a closer look at the box score uncovers some concerning trends for the Beavers. Oregon State committed 10 penalties for 100 yards and turned the ball over three times. The offense only gained 17 first downs and converted on just 4 of 13 third down opportunities. The difference in the game was the five turnovers committed by the Broncos’ offense. Fresno State is unlikely to give up the ball quite as readily. Bulldogs quarterback Jake Haener looked sharp in the opener, throwing for 377 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. In a coin flip game, I’ll take the home underdog.
Iowa State at Iowa Over 40.5: It’s difficult to not be phased by Iowa’s Week 1 performance. In a world where Appalachian State is scoring 40 points in a quarter, it defies belief that a Big Ten team could win a 7-3 game against an FCS opponent using a field goal and two safeties. This is an extreme performance even by Kirk Ferentz standards. As a result, the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy has the lowest point total of any game between FBS schools in Week 2. Last year’s game was a defensive rock fight that still reached a total of 44 points. As good as the Hawkeyes are defensively, Iowa State should be able to put some points on the board. In his debut with the Cyclones in Week 1, Hunter Dekkers threw for 4 touchdowns and had a QB rating of 196.2. I’m not suggesting this game will be fun to watch, but I do think the total is artificially low.
Parlay/Teaser of the Week
- Season record: 0-1
Each week, I’ll propose a parlay that you can use to diversify your gambling portfolio. Last week’s ACC Atlantic teaser came up 2 points short, as Boston College bungled an imminently winnable home game against Rutgers. It was a disappointing result, but it has not discouraged me from using teasers. We will stick with the teaser format again this week, but this time include an NFL game in celebration of the season kicking off Thursday night.
- USC (-9 –> -2.5) at Stanford: Trojan fans could not have asked for a better debut from Lincoln Riley. Quarterback Caleb Williams was electric, averaging 11.3 yards per pass and 11.3 yards per rush. More importantly for USC’s long-term success, the defense was vastly improved from a season ago. The Trojans forced only one pick-six in 2021; in this game alone, there were 3 defensive touchdowns. Traveling to Stanford should pose a greater challenge than hosting Rice, but USC has a significant talent advantage across the roster. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a close game, but I expect the Trojans to pull away late.
- Indianapolis Colts (-7 –> -0.5) at Houston Texans (Sunday): Speaking of Stanford, Davis Mills will start his 12th NFL game on Sunday. In contrast, it will be Matt Ryan’s 233rd career start in the league, but first with the Colts. I expect to see rejuvenated play from Ryan this season playing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Having Jonathan Taylor, one of the league’s most dynamic pass-catching running backs, in the backfield certainly helps. Playing on the road is always difficult in the NFL, but the Texans are still in the early stages of a multi-year rebuild. In the two games these teams played last year, the Colts won by a combined score of 64-3.
Random Fact to Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
The North Carolina-Appalachian State game featured one of the wildest endings I have ever seen in college football. As previously mentioned, the Mountaineers scored 40 points in the fourth quarter against a porous Tar Heel defense. North Carolina scored 22 points of its own, leading to one of the highest scoring fourth quarters in FBS history. The record for most combined points scored in the fourth quarter is 63 from a Navy-North Texas game in 2007.
With the expected point total of the UNC-Appalachian State game set at 56.5 before kickoff, you would have cashed an over bet with either individual team.
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
