Bear Bryant often preached that “defense wins championships.” You would be forgiven for focusing your attention away from defense amidst a college football landscape where teams combine to score 140 points in regulation. However, it is very difficult to be an elite program without a stout defense.
For example, playoff hopefuls Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State are all ranked in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense. As we get late into the season and scouting tape is widely available, I tend to gravitate toward reliable defenses with my sports bets. As you will see from my selections this week, I am hoping to translate defense into offense/profit.
Virginia Week 11 Forecast
- Pittsburgh -4.5 at Virginia, Over 39.5.
Any professional coach will tell you that there is “no such thing as a good loss.” Still, comments from the Virginia coaching staff following the close loss against North Carolina suggest some optimism about how the Cavaliers performed. It was easily the best performance from the offensive line all season, allowing an effective ground game that accounted for 186 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. While the defense managed to keep explosive plays to a minimum, it could not get off the field at critical junctures. UNC converted on 7 of 14 third downs and 2 of 3 fourth downs.
This week’s opponent will test UVA’s improvement on offense but may provide a bit of reprieve for the defensive unit. Pittsburgh looks dramatically different from the program that captured the ACC title in 2021. Gone are the days of Mark Whipple’s pass-friendly offense anchored by an elite quarterback. Quarterback Kedon Slovis has struggled with injuries and inconsistent play this year. In his last four games, Slovis has 4 interceptions and 0 touchdowns. Instead, the Panthers have relied on running back Israel Abanikanda to drive the offense. Despite being held out of last week’s game against Syracuse with an undisclosed injury, Abanikanda has already rushed for 1,086 yards and 16 touchdowns this season.
The bigger challenge for Virginia will be trying to gain traction against Pat Narduzzi’s defense. The Panthers only conceded 145 yards and 10 first downs to a ranked Syracuse team last weekend. Behind talented linebackers in SirVocea Dennis, Bangally Kamara, and Solomon DeShields, Pittsburgh has one of the toughest front sevens in the ACC. The defense has a sack rate of 8.47% on opposing passing plays which ranks 17th nationally. Given the struggles Virginia’s offensive line has faced this season, I expect another game where Brennan Armstrong is facing intense pressure. It should be a close, low-scoring game, but I believe that Pittsburgh ultimately gets the victory behind an impressive defensive performance. Panthers over the Cavaliers, 24-17.
Week 9 Best Selections
- Season record: 25-23-2. Another week, another 3-2 performance. Consistency is the fruit of the tree of success. Time to continue my winning ways by relying on some of the country’s best defenses.
Cincinnati -4 vs. East Carolina: This year’s iteration of Luke Fickell’s program does not have the same star power as the team that made the College Football Playoff in 2021. Still, Cincinnati has put together another successful season thanks to a robust defense. The Bearcats rank fourth in the FBS by allowing only 4.35 yards per play and seventh nationally in opposing completion percentage (54%). East Carolina relies heavily on an aerial attack, which could be additionally hampered by the anticipated weather on Friday night. Cincinnati is 6-0 against the spread at home in its last six meetings against the Pirates, and I expect this trend to continue for at least one more game.
Notre Dame -16.5 vs. Navy: The early season angst among the Notre Dame faithful about Marcus Freeman’s tenure was put at ease by last weekend’s dominant home victory against Clemson. The Tigers managed only 90 rushing yards against the Fighting Irish front. For the season, Notre Dame has yielded only 4.8 yards per play and 21 points per game. This does not bode well for Navy’s one-dimensional rushing attack. Expect M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore to provide the Irish with a home field advantage despite the relative proximity to the Naval Academy.
Iowa +2 vs. Wisconsin: Iowa’s offensive struggles under Kirk Ferentz are well documented. The Hawkeyes average 18.5 points per game and gain the fewest yards of any Power 5 team (274.5 per game). Still, the Iowa defense is elite, allowing only 3.85 yards per play (1st nationally) and 13 total touchdowns on the year. With Wisconsin also having a strong defense, this game figures to be a low-scoring battle of field position. That type of game should suit Iowa just fine. I’ll take the extra points for the home team.
Iowa State -1.5 at Oklahoma State: The Cowboys have not looked the same since quarterback Spencer Sanders injured his shoulder. After playing through pain for several games, Sanders’ condition worsened during Oklahoma State’s 48-0 loss to Kansas State on Oct. 29. His replacement, Garret Rangel, threw 3 interceptions at Kansas last weekend. Mike Gundy has remained tight-lipped about who will start this week against the Cyclones. Assuming Sanders cannot play, the Cowboys will be playing an inexperienced freshman against the nation’s 10th best defense in yards allowed per game. Six of Iowa State’s opponents this year have been held to 14 points or fewer.
Louisville at Clemson Under 51.5: As I previously referenced, offensive inefficiency finally caught up with Dabo Swinney’s squad in South Bend. However, the Clemson defense remains quite strong, particularly against the run; opponents average only 102 yards on the ground per game. Louisville also has a strong defense, conceding only 19.4 points per game and leading the nation in total sacks. Clemson should be able to keep Malik Cunningham in check, while the Cardinals’ defense tees off against a struggling DJ Uiagalelei (or a back-up quarterback if Swinney pulls the plug on his starter). I’ll take the under.
Parlay/Teaser of the Week
- Season record: 3-7
Last week’s money-line parlay worked to perfection. Let’s run it back with another one. Here are two teams with strong defenses that I expect to win on the road this Saturday.
- James Madison to win at Old Dominion: After a hot start to the season, JMU has returned to earth in recent weeks. The Dukes’ three-game losing streak coincided with an injury to sixth-year quarterback Todd Centeio. Centeio returned last week against Louisville and should be healthy to play in the “Royal Rivalry” against ODU. He’ll have support from a defense that ranks 19th in the country by allowing 330.4 yards per game.
- Florida State to win at Syracuse: After a dominant defensive performance in a 45-3 win over rival Miami, Florida State’s only question mark is whether this game represents an emotional letdown. Syracuse may be without starting quarterback Garrett Shrader for the second consecutive week. His replacement, Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, has completed only 19 of 45 passes in the last two games. After winning on the road last week, Mike Norvell’s squad should have a lot of confidence heading to the JMA Wireless Dome this weekend.
Random Facts To Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
The most obvious positive change in Virginia’s college football program has been the progression of its defense. Under first-year coordinator John Rudzinski, the Cavaliers have shown dramatic growth from last year’s production. This improvement, coupled with a significant offensive regression, has resulted in many games falling under Vegas’ projected points totals. Only one Virginia game this season has gone over the consensus closing point total – the 34-17 home loss to Louisville. On average, Virginia games fall almost 13 points below the established over-under lines. This is actually the biggest variation from expected game totals of any FBS team.
As Virginia basketball fans are fond of saying: “defense travels.” Now it’s time to bring the offense along for the ride.
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
