Even when a college football weekend looks underwhelming on paper, it can produce unexpected drama. In Week 3, several heavily favored teams, including Colorado, Georgia, and Alabama, narrowly avoided catastrophic upsets. Tennessee wasn’t so lucky.
Whatever buzz was missing from last weekend, however, will be addressed this coming Saturday.
The schedule is filled to the brim with high-profile games that should have a substantial impact on conference races and the College Football Playoff. This week, I’m focusing my betting analysis on several “can’t miss” games with high stakes for the remainder of the season.
Virginia Predictions Week 4
- Record to date: 2-1 on spread, 0-3 on over/unders
North Carolina State -9.5 vs. Virginia, Under 48.
For the second week in a row, the Cavaliers played inspired football for the first three quarters only to falter in the final minutes of the game. Virginia has now been outscored 47-3 in the fourth quarter this season, a discouraging statistic that highlights the lack of depth on the roster. The Hoos must shake off these losses and prepare for Dave Doeren and the North Carolina State Wolfpack in the ACC opener.
For the last several years, Doeren’s template for success has been to pair an elite defense with a competent offense that avoids making mistakes. The underlying metrics tell a similar story for 2023 despite the arrival of former UVA offensive coordinator Robert Anae and transfer quarterback Brennan Armstrong.
NC State ranks 61st in the FBS in scoring offense, averaging 31 points per game. Armstrong has not looked like the gunslinger who set passing records in Charlottesville in 2021. Through three games, he has completed 63% of his passes with 3 touchdowns and as many interceptions. Anae’s play-calling has been decidedly conservative, which has led to mediocre offensive output compared to what Cavaliers’ fans saw at the end of his tenure. The offense averages 10.3 yards per completion which ranks 105th in the FBS. Keeping Armstrong in the pocket will be critical in this game, as he has already rushed for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns thus far.
The NCSU defense is not quite as talented as previous years and is susceptible to allowing explosive plays. This unit is middle of the pack nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (115) and slightly better with passing yards allowed per attempt (7.67). Both averages are skewed because of big plays allowed to Connecticut and Notre Dame. However, the strength of the defense comes from its disruptive pass rush. Led by talented defensive tackle Davin Vann, NC State averages 3 sacks per game and ranks 9th in the FBS in sack yardage. This is a major area of concern for the Cavalier offensive line, which has allowed 10 sacks already this season. Regardless of who plays quarterback for Virginia, he will need to get the ball out quickly and avoid negative plays that allow the Wolfpack defensive line to tee off on obvious passing situations.
As I said on the Preferred Walk-Ons Podcast this week, if Virginia had a little more roster depth, I might be tempted to pick the Hoos in an upset spot. NC State is talented, but certainly beatable. However, with the more experienced quarterback and a significantly better pass rush, the Wolfpack should be able to win the game comfortably. Wolfpack over the Cavs, 31-16.
Important note for this section: As a Virginia alum and regular reader of The Sabre, I love talking about the Cavaliers. However, I never bet for or against Virginia in my personal portfolio.
Week 3 Best Bet Predictions
- Season record: 6-9
Texas Tech -6 at West Virginia: In a make-or-break year for Neal Brown, the Mountaineers head coach secured a win against hated rival Pittsburgh. It was a game that brought new meaning to the term “Backyard Brawl.” In the 17-6 win, West Virginia only gained 211 yards of offense – the exact same number as the Panthers – and averaged 3.4 yards per play. Two of the three scoring drives were gifts from the Pitt offense: a four-play drive for 6 yards that resulted in a field goal and a one-play touchdown drive that started on the opposing 7-yard line. The Mountaineers will need significantly better offense to keep up with a pass-happy Texas Tech squad. Unfortunately, West Virginia will likely have to hand the offense over to quarterback Nicco Marchiol, who will be getting his first career start after an injury to Garrett Greene. I’ll take my chances with the experience of Tyler Shough who will be playing in his 30th career game this Saturday. The Red Raiders have won four straight in the series, including a dominant 38-point victory in Lubbock last season.
BYU +9 at Kansas: After watching Phil Jurkovec complete only 8 passes and throw 3 interceptions against West Virginia, Pittsburgh fans must have been lamenting the loss of former quarterback Kedon Slovis. Now at BYU, Slovis is playing some of the best football of his career by dramatically cutting down on costly interceptions. You can afford to be more selective with your passes when your defense ranks 8th in turnover margin (+5) and 14th in third down conversions allowed (28%). Lance Leipold has done an incredible job rebuilding the Jayhawks and quarterback Jalon Daniels is one of my favorite players to watch each weekend. However, I’m concerned about how Kansas looked against Nevada last Saturday. The Wolfpack were besieged by roster turnover with the transfer portal and lost at home to Idaho by 27 points but managed to play the Jayhawks to a one-score game. This is one of eight games involving two undefeated teams on Saturday, and I believe the Cougars will play inspired football in their first ever Big 12 conference clash.
Alabama -6.5 vs. Mississippi: If I had a nickel for every time pundits prematurely declared the end of Nick Saban’s relevance in the college football world, I wouldn’t need to be betting on sports. Yes, Saturday’s game against USF was an incredibly underwhelming performance from the Crimson Tide. The offensive line was suspect and back-up quarterbacks Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson struggled mightily to move the ball. Still, the defense remains robust, allowing only 4.4 yards per play. With quarterback Jalen Milroe back under center, the offense should dramatically improve if for no other reason than his ability to escape the pocket. The Tide should be able to move the ball against a Mississippi defense that has allowed over 350 yards per game this season. Perhaps this is not Saban’s best team, but there’s a lot of history to suggest that the last two weeks have just been temporary speed bumps. The last time Alabama lost two home games in a season was in 2007, Saban’s first year in Tuscaloosa. If you want to drag Saban for falling outside the AP top 10 rankings, remember that the last time it happened was in 2015 when the Crimson Tide went on to win the National Championship.
Oregon State -2.5 at Washington State: These two schools may have been left behind by conference realignment, but they are both determined to make the last year of the Pac-12 count. The parallels between these two teams should make this one of the most fun games of the day. Both teams have dynamic offenses that average more than 7 yards per play. Both starting quarterbacks, DJ Uiagalelei and Cameron Ward, are experienced and can extend plays with their scrambling ability. However, I think Oregon State has the advantage in the trenches. The Beavers’ offensive line has only allowed 1 sack through three games, while the defense ranks 10th in the FBS in creating tackles for a loss. Pullman, Washington is a difficult place to play, but I expect Oregon State to win by a touchdown.
Iowa +14.5 at Penn State: While I believe that Penn State is a legitimate threat to win the Big 10 Championship, I was not that impressed with last week’s game against Illinois. Though the defense deserves credit for forcing 5 turnovers, it is also true that Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer made some terrible decisions that kept it from being a competitive game. Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar had a pedestrian showing, completing under 50% of his passes. He will need to play significantly better against an Iowa defense that has allowed only 179.3 passing yards per game this season and 4.9 yards per attempt (9th nationally). Like most games involving the Hawkeyes, I expect this one to be a low-scoring affair with both teams trying to establish the running game with varying degrees of success. I don’t think Iowa is likely to win, but I will gladly take more than two touchdowns on the line.
Upset Special
- Record to date: 2-1
UCLA ML at Utah (+165): As I did with Missouri last week, I am leaning into a line that makes no logical sense. Utah has played well this season despite injuries to its best two players: quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe. Rising is trending toward returning for this game after successfully practicing earlier this week. The Utes have been nearly unbeatable at home, winning 27 of the last 28 and 16 straight from the friendly confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium. While Kyle Whittingham’s program appears to be the pillar of stability, Chip Kelly is currently tinkering with his offense to an unprecedented degree. Kelly refuses to name a starter after playing 5 different quarterbacks in Saturday’s win over NC Central. This certainly feels like a game that is set up for Utah to win, and yet the line remains stubbornly low at four points. I do not understand this at all. I hate betting against Utah at home, but I have to stick with my “run to the smell” sensibilities.
Random Fact To Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
With the UVA game completed Friday evening, you can spend your entire Saturday watching meaningful college football games. There are six matchups between teams ranked in the Top 25. According to television personality and betting expert Chris Fallica, this is the most ranked games in one day since Sept. 16, 2006, when seven Top 25 games were played. Finish your chores early in the week so you can spend Saturday gorging on college football!
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
