The lights have never been brighter for college football – Week 4 was one of the most watched regular season weekends ever with predictions all over the place.
The games delivered. Florida State escaped its road trip to Clemson with a thrilling overtime victory, Ohio State took down Notre Dame on the final play of the game, and Oregon staked its claim on Pac-12 supremacy with a dominating win over Colorado.
What should we expect as an encore this weekend? Though there are fewer ranked games, I anticipate that we will get more close games and a few upsets as well. Here are the games I’m most interested in from a betting perspective.
Virginia Predictions Week 4
- Record to date: 2-2 on spread, 1-3 on over/unders
Virginia +3.5 at Boston College, Under 55.5.
You would think in my decades of UVA fandom, I would have run out of ways to have my heart broken. Last week’s loss to NC State, punctuated by three 15-yard penalties in the final 36 seconds, was especially agonizing. After another close loss, can Virginia maintain its resilience and find a way to successfully close a game out?
Anything can happen in college football, but this certainly seems like the Hoos’ best chance at winning a road game this season. Boston College played a shockingly close game with Florida State, but also lost its opener against Northern Illinois and nearly dropped its Week 2 game against FCS Holy Cross.
The offense is led by sophomore quarterback Thomas Castellanos, who is not the most accurate passer, but has the ability to make big throws and extend plays with his legs. It will be critically important for Virginia to keep him in the pocket and not let his speed get to the second level. Though I was encouraged by the Cavaliers’ defensive performance on Saturday, John Rudzinski’s unit will be without Kam Butler, Paul Akere, and Lex Long.
Offensively, the Cavaliers should be able to move the ball successfully against the Eagles defense regardless of who starts at quarterback. Boston College ranks near the bottom of the FBS allowing 16 yards per completion and is ranked 113th nationally by conceding 189 rushing yards allowed per game. The ground game has been a struggle for Virginia this season, but this should be an opportunity to forge positive momentum.
Given the close losses, injuries, and emotional turmoil, it would be easy for this team to pack it in and give up on the season. It’s clear from watching these players that they have not done so. I am holding out hope that they can finally break through for the first win of the season in Chestnut Hill. Hoos over the Eagles, 27-24.
Important note for this section: As a Virginia alum and regular reader of The Sabre, I love talking about the Cavaliers. However, I never bet for or against Virginia in my personal portfolio.
Week 5 Best Bet Predictions
- Season record: 7-13.
After two consecutive poor performances, I’m ready for a major bounce back this weekend. When looking for winners, I focused my attention on America’s Heartland.
Kentucky -1 vs. Florida: To this point in the season, Florida and Kentucky have the two best rush defenses in the SEC. The biggest difference between these programs is with their offensive approaches. Behind quarterback Graham Mertz, the Gators play conservatively, looking for short, high-percentage passes. Meanwhile, the Wildcats offense relies more heavily on a vertical passing game, with Devin Leary taking greater risks in search of explosive plays.
Though both approaches have their merits, with rushing yards at a premium, I think the ability to get chunk plays will be a decisive factor in what figures to be a low-scoring game. Similarly, I’m concerned about Florida’s ability to convert on third downs; at 33%, the Gators rank 115th in the FBS with the ability to extend drives. With the game in Lexington, I think Big Blue Nation will be able to celebrate the first three-game winning streak against Florida since 1951.
Colorado +22 vs. USC: The Coach Prime hype train hit a major speed bump last weekend in Eugene. Colorado’s defense was bullied at the line of scrimmage, conceding 240 rushing yards and 7.2 yards per play. Two stars of the Buffaloes secondary, Travis Hunter and Shilo Sanders, are questionable for this game which is not ideal when facing the nation’s third ranked passing attack led by the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Caleb Williams.
While I do not believe Colorado can consistently stop USC’s offense, I think they can keep pace on the scoreboard. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders has one of the highest Pro Football Focus passer ratings in the country (93.6) with only 1 interception on the year. His high-level decision-making will be essential against a Trojans defense that allows a lot of passing yards but is above average in forcing turnovers. Last week, USC allowed Arizona State, a team considerably worse than Colorado, to hang around into the fourth quarter because of defensive breakdowns. The atmosphere figures to be electric at Folsom Field – despite the 10 a.m. local kickoff – and I think the Buffaloes keep this one closer than people expect.
Houston +10 at Texas Tech: Through four games, the Red Raiders have not played like the dark horse Big 12 contender many pundits believed them to be. To make matters worse, the team will have to play the remainder of the season without quarterback Tyler Shough who suffered a gruesome leg injury in Saturday’s loss against West Virginia. His replacement, Behren Morton, struggled in the spotlight, completing only 13 of 37 passes. The job could have gone to the more experienced Donovan Smith, but he transferred to Houston after three years in Lubbock. Now starting against his former team, Smith figures to be well-versed in the coverages he will see across the line of scrimmage. Neither team has a particularly impressive defense, so we might see a close game with a lot of points scored.
Texas -16 vs. Kansas: The last time these two programs met in Austin, Kansas produced a stunning 57-56 overtime upset. That loss clearly stuck in the craw of Steve Sarkisian’s squad, as Texas responded with a dominant 41-point win in Lawrence last season. The 4-0 Jayhawks won’t sneak up on the Longhorns this time around.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers deservedly gets a lot of media attention because of his high school pedigree. He has lived up to the hype, throwing for over 1,000 yards in September with 9 touchdowns and no interceptions. However, the development of Texas’ defense does not get nearly enough attention. Against the run, the Longhorns have allowed an average of 87 yards per game (18th in the FBS) and 2.7 yards per attempt. The team has only allowed 4 touchdowns thus far this season. I love what Lance Leipold has built at Kansas, and the combination of quarterback Jalon Daniels and running back Devin Neal is one of the more exciting duos in college football. Still, given Texas’ disruptive front seven, I think it will be tough sledding for the KU ground game.
Notre Dame at Duke Under 52.5: This is a big moment for Mike Elko and the Duke football program. With College GameDay on location for the first time, this game figures to be a rare moment where Wallace Wade Stadium is filled with fans and provides an electric atmosphere. Those in attendance may be treated to a defensive slugfest.
Duke ranks second in the nation in defensive stop rate, a metric that calculates how frequently the defense can get off the field without allowing points. The Blue Devils stop opponents from scoring on 88.6% of drives which translates to an average of 0.8 points per drive. Notre Dame’s defense is formidable as well when it remembers to field all 11 men. The Fighting Irish have the sixth ranked passing defense, allowing fewer than 150 yards per game. Neither offense plays with much pace; both teams are outside the top 100 in the total number of offensive plays per game. I see this as a 24-17 victory for visitors.
Washington -17.5 at Arizona: I will add one coastal team to the list just for geographical equity. Though many people expected Washington to be in the mix for the Pac-12 Championship, few expected the Huskies to be this dominant through four games.
Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is now listed second in the Heisman race in many sportsbooks because of his top rated QBR numbers and 16 passing touchdowns. For comparison, that’s the same number of passing touchdowns that Iowa has accumulated in its last 26 games. Penix Jr. has been extremely accurate despite throwing the ball down the field, completing 75% of his passes while averaging nearly 12 yards per attempt.
With Arizona’s defense ranked 62nd in passing yards allowed, the offense will need to score on most possessions to keep this one close. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, starting quarterback Jayden de Laura injured his ankle last week and is questionable for this game. For a team that needed a late rally to defeat lowly Stanford by a single point last week, Arizona is not set up for success against the seventh ranked team in the country.
Upset Special
- Record to date: 2-2
Mississippi ML vs. LSU (+125): LSU, my preseason pick to win the SEC and appear in the College Football Playoff, has underwhelmed through four games. The fourth quarter meltdown against Florida State in the opening week was unexpected, but at least that was against a highly ranked team. Last Saturday, the Tigers needed a late field goal to beat a middling Arkansas team at home.
Both games demonstrated LSU’s in defending mobile quarterbacks. KJ Jefferson ran the ball 16 times and was elusive in the pocket, extending plays and giving his receivers time to find open space. Expect a similar dynamic from Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart, who is the Rebels’ leading rusher. The Rebels can match the dynamic offensive production of Jayden Daniels and the Tigers. Though LSU averages slightly more passing yards per game, Mississippi has the better average in yards per completion (16.6 vs. 13.9). This should be one of the most fun games of the day, but I like Lane Kiffin’s squad to pull off the upset at home.
Random Fact to Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
We are one-third of the way through the season and only 27 undefeated teams remain. Of these teams, five have won every game against the spread as well: Penn State, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Liberty, and Oregon. Two other teams have gone undefeated but have yet to win against the spread this season: Georgia and Michigan. Is this a cause for concern for two College Football Playoff contenders or just overinflated expectations from Vegas sportsbooks? We should have a better answer to that question in the next couple weeks.
SabreBetrics is written by a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
