We are entering the most exciting stretch of the college football season. Conference play is in full swing, which means every weekend will feature high-stakes games and bitter rivalries. It’s perfect for making predictions and watching football.
This Saturday we get to enjoy the 119th edition of the Red River Rivalry in Dallas, a rematch of the 2000 BCS National Championship Game, and another confrontational matchup between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban. These games are reason enough to spend your weekend on the couch, but I would like to offer a few other best bets to supplement your viewing enjoyment.
The emphasis this week is on favorites who I believe will exceed Vegas expectations.
Virginia Predictions Week 6
- Record to date: 3-2 on spread, 2-3 on over/unders
Virginia to win vs. William & Mary
The line for this game won’t be set until Friday in most sportsbooks, but you should anticipate the number being in the single digits. It will likely be the last time that Virginia is listed as the favorite for the remainder of the year. Can the Hoos get their first victory since October 2022 and end the dreaded prospect of a winless season?
Even if Virginia was not mired in an extended losing streak, William & Mary would pose a formidable challenge. Under Mike London’s leadership, the Tribe have assembled one of the best defenses in the FCS. Through 5 games, William & Mary has allowed only 10.8 points per game, holding three different opponents to only one score. The defensive unit is anchored by lineman Nate Lynn, who leads the team with 6 sacks and is listed on the Buck Buchanan Award watch list. Even though the Hoos have a size advantage on the offensive line, moving the ball and protecting the quarterback will not be easy given the experience and talent with the Tribe’s front seven.
Fortunately for UVA fans, William & Mary does not have the most potent offense. London’s team is built around the ground game, but his most dangerous running back, Bronson Yoder, was injured in the Week 4 victory over Maine. Though his replacement Malachi Imoh played well with a 27-carry, 132-yard performance against Elon, the offense struggled to move the ball at critical junctures of the game. Quarterback Darius Wilson managed only 5 completions for 36 yards and an interception. The Cavaliers need to stack the box and force Wilson to win the game from the pocket.
If you’re expecting this game against an FCS opponent to be a cakewalk, you will be sorely disappointed. Still, I believe that Virginia has enough talent at the skill positions to win this game. Expect a low-scoring game with high levels of fourth quarter anxiety. If the team can jump out to a lead, protect the football, and force William & Mary to play from behind, it is a very winnable game. Quite simply, it is a game the Cavaliers absolutely, positively cannot lose. Hoos over the Tribe, 20-14.
Important note for this section: As a Virginia alum and regular reader of The Sabre, I love talking about the Cavaliers. However, I never bet for or against Virginia in my personal portfolio.
Week 6 Best Bet Predictions
- Season record: 11-15
I am working my way back to profit. Following a 4-2 week, I am putting my faith in these favorites.
Army -3 vs. Boston College: Through 5 weeks, no game has been more surprising or inexplicable than Boston College’s near upset of Florida State. If not for 18 penalties, the Eagles likely win the game and keep the Seminoles out of the College Football Playoff. BC’s other performances do not align with a team on the cusp of greatness: an upset loss to Northern Illinois, narrow escapes against Holy Cross and Virginia, and a 28-point loss at Louisville.
Having just watched Jeff Hafley’s team closely, I think Army has the advantage in this game. The Black Knights are elite at running the football, averaging 208 yards per game on the ground. This emphasis on the run has allowed Army to dominate the time of possession, ranking third nationally with over 34 minutes of offensive possession per game. Jeff Monken’s squad is also the most disciplined team in the country with only 9 total penalties through 4 games. Those statistics may not be surprising for a service academy, but this fact is: Army ranks second in passing yards per completion at 19.9 yards. The Black Knights always seem to play better within the friendly confines of Michie Stadium, and I think there’s a chance they can get a double-digit win over a subpar ACC opponent.
LSU -4.5 at Missouri: Eli Drinkwitz deserves credit for leading his team to a 5-0 start despite several substantial injuries. However, it is also fair to say that his Tigers have benefited from some luck in several close games. Before last weekend’s solid victory over Vanderbilt, Missouri had one score victories over Middle Tennessee State, Kansas State, and Memphis. Quarterback Brady Cook has been a revelation with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions, but he is playing at less than 100 percent with a knee injury.
I’ll put my money on the Bayou Bengals, who figure to be fully focused after a disappointing late loss to Mississippi. Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense were nearly unstoppable, compiling 637 total yards of offense on 8.5 yards per play. With two top 15 passing offenses competing, this matchup figures to be a high-scoring affair and one of the most exciting games to watch on Saturday.
UCLA -3 vs. Washington State: When we last saw Chip Kelly’s team, it struggled to move the ball in a demoralizing 14-7 loss against Utah. Freshman quarterback Dante Moore completed only 15 of 35 passes, and the Bruins accrued only 9 rushing yards. That’s a sharp contrast to Washington State’s last performance, an impressive 38-35 win against Oregon State. Cougars’ quarterback Cameron Ward played brilliantly and cemented his position as one of this year’s Heisman hopefuls.
So why is UCLA favored in a game against the nation’s No. 13 team? Even accounting for the Bruins’ 6th ranked scoring defense, which has allowed fewer than 78 rushing yards per game, this line doesn’t make much sense to me. Once again, my advice is always to lean in when the odds don’t make sense. I’m predicting a dominant performance from the UCLA defense, forcing Ward’s first interception of the year at a critical moment.
Iowa -2.5 vs. Purdue: With most teams, I would be concerned when the experienced starting quarterback goes down to a season-ending injury. With Iowa though, offense has never been the point. Only Sam Houston State averages fewer yards per game in the FBS than the Hawkeyes. After accumulating only 669 passing yards in 4 games, can things really be worse with Deacon Hill at quarterback? Iowa’s defense is not quite as dominant as in prior years, but it is still holding opposing teams to under 17 points per game even without competent offensive support.
Meanwhile, Purdue is the very definition of “mid.” The Boilermakers do not rank highly in any offensive or defensive category, are 2-2 on the season, and have a quarterback in Hudson Card who ranks 75th in total QBR. It may require betting on this game to find any joy in watching the Iowa offense, but I think Kirk Ferentz gets the win at home.
Texas Tech -1 at Baylor: One of my two losses last week was betting against Texas Tech. I won’t make the same mistake twice. Even though the Red Raiders are known for an “Air Raid” offensive style, they leaned more heavily into the ground game following the season-ending injury to quarterback Tyler Shough. The result was a dominant performance from tailbacks Tahj Brooks (22 carries for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Cam’Ron Valdez (5 carries for 106 yards). Replacement quarterback Behren Morton was solid as well after a full week of preparation.
I expect Tech to try and replicate the run-heavy blueprint in Waco on Saturday. Baylor ranks 113th in the FBS in rushing yards allowed per game, conceding an average of 5 yards per rushing attempt. The Bears also must replace senior linebacker Mike Smith, the team’s second leading tackler, who injured his ACL last week. I like Texas Tech to get a second straight win against an in-state rival.
Colorado -4 at Arizona State: After the first quarter in last weekend’s game against USC, it looked like Deion Sanders was on his way to another humbling loss. Instead, his team fought valiantly from behind and ended the game only one score behind the highly rated Trojans. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders played another outstanding game, completing 30 of 45 passes for 371 yards and 4 touchdowns. I do not anticipate that Arizona State will be able to provide much resistance against the speed and skill of the Buffaloes’ offense.
Colorado’s defense has struggled all season – doubly so without Travis Hunter available – but the Sun Devils do not have near the same offensive firepower as USC. Arizona State ranks 106th in first downs gained and 112th on third down percentage. After two difficult games for Coach Prime, this feels like a “get right” opportunity that builds on the positive performance late versus USC.
Upset Special
- Record to date: 3-2
Wyoming ML vs. Fresno State (+170): Just to diversify the betting portfolio, here is one underdog who has been playing very well at home this season. The Pokes are 4-1 this season with upset wins against Texas Tech and Appalachian State in Laramie. However, the most impressive performance of the year came against Texas, who Wyoming played to a 10-10 tie through three quarters. Wyoming has excelled in running the football by averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Pokes also have talent in the secondary, holding opposing offenses to only 6 yards per pass attempt. War Memorial Stadium is a very difficult place to win as a visiting team, and I predict Fresno State picks up its first loss of the season.
Random Fact To Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
Though I focused my attention this week on teams Vegas thinks will win, there is no systemic advantage to only betting on favorites in college football. In aggregating data from the last 26 years ahead of the 2023 season, Phil Steele found that favorites have won 49.5 percent of the time against the spread and 76.2 percent outright. Instead, it may be better to focus on individual teams that are exceeding expectations when listed as a favorite. To this point of the season, there are only four teams that have been favored every one of their games and covered the spread each time: Oregon, Penn State, Oklahoma, and Liberty.
SabreBetrics is written by a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
