Whether we like to admit it or not, rivalries are what drive college football’s success in America. Predictions on winners and losers drive interest. Wins over bitter rivals can uplift a fanbase and buoy a coach on the hot seat, while losses cause pain that can change the overall trajectory of a program.
This weekend, we will be treated to several rivalry games including:
- The first leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy between Air Force and Navy
- The Third Saturday in October between Tennessee and Alabama
- The Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale between Minnesota and Iowa
- The Battle for the Bones matchup between Memphis and UAB
Rivalries play a prominent role in my selections this week. Before we analyze some of those matchups, let’s dive into the feud Cavaliers fans care most about: The South’s Oldest Rivalry.
Virginia Predictions Week 8
- Record to date: 4-2 on spread, 3-3 on over/unders
North Carolina -23.5 vs. Virginia, Over 56
Coming off a bye week, Virginia has the unenviable task of facing its oldest rival – a top 10 ranked team – on the road. North Carolina is the only team in the country to have played at least five Power 5 schools and won each game by at least 10 points.
The offense, anchored by future first-round NFL Draft pick Drake Maye, is one of the best in football. The Tar Heels have scored at least 30 points in every game this season and topped 40 points the last two weeks since star wide receiver Tez Walker was declared eligible. As explosive as UNC’s offense can be through the air, I am more concerned by the ground game in this matchup. Running back Omarion Hampton enters this game after gashing Miami’s talented front seven with 24 carries for 197 yards. Virginia has struggled mightily this season in stopping opposing rushers, allowing an average of 177 yards per game on the ground (109th in the FBS) and 14 touchdowns.
What separates this year’s Carolina team from last season is the emergence of a competent defense. Gene Chizik’s unit has allowed only 114 rushing yards per game (29th in the FBS) and 3.6 yards per carry. The Tar Heels are also skilled at pressuring opposing quarterbacks; through six games, UNC has 16 sacks totaling 131 yards. This figures to be a difficult matchup for a Virginia offensive line that has conceded 22 sacks (116th in the FBS) and failed to establish a consistent rushing attack (2.71 yards per attempt).
In short, this is a terrible matchup for the Cavaliers. North Carolina excels in elements of the game where Virginia has significant deficits. Even if UVA’s defense has its best performance of the season, it is likely that the offense will have to score in the 30s to have a realistic chance at winning the game. Maybe the extra preparation of the bye week allows Tony Elliot’s squad to keep the game competitive for a half, but I just don’t see a realistic path to victory. Heels over the Hoos, 45-13.
Important note for this section: As a Virginia alum and regular reader of The Sabre, I love talking about the Cavaliers. However, I never bet for or against Virginia in my personal portfolio.
Week 8 Best Bet Predictions
- Season record: 17-19-1.
Oregon’s three failed fourth down conversions kept me from enjoying a profitable Week 7. I am leaving nothing to chance this week by focusing on some of our nation’s top rivalries.
Georgia Tech -4.5 vs. Boston College: Brent Key is having a fascinatingly uneven season in Atlanta. After opening the season with an impressive showing against Louisville in a nationally televised game, the Yellow Jackets were embarrassed by Bowling Green in Week 5 before stunning a ranked Miami team as a 3-touchdown underdog. It’s fair to question what you will get out of Georgia Tech on any given Saturday, but I think the pieces are there to be successful against Boston College. In his fourth year as a college quarterback, Haynes King is playing the best football of his career. With 16 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions, King has raised the offensive floor of Key’s squad.
Nothing about Boston College is particularly impressive. The Eagles’ three wins over Holy Cross, Virginia, and Army were by 3 points each. The defense allows 32.4 points per game and ranks near the bottom of the FBS in terms of yards allowed per pass attempt. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos is a threat to run the ball but is not particularly accurate in the pocket, completing only 57% of his passes. If Georgia Tech can stack the box and force Castellanos to throw on long yardage situations, I like the Jackets to win at home.
Memphis -5 at UAB: It’s been 11 years since Memphis has had to defend the Battle for the Bones Trophy, one of our nation’s most impressive artistic achievements. The Tigers have played well this season despite some difficult opponents. The only two losses on the schedule have come at the hands of ranked teams (Missouri and Tulane), and Ryan Silverfield’s team had chances to win both contests in the fourth quarter. Passing is Memphis’ strength, testing opposing secondaries with over 36 passing attempts per game. This is a particular area of concern for the Blazers, as Trent Dilfer’s team ranks near the bottom of the FBS in completion percentage allowed and sack rate. This could be a high-scoring game in Birmingham, but I think the Tigers are the more battle-tested group.
Iowa -3 vs. Minnesota: Iowa’s offensive struggles have been well-documented. So far this season, the Hawkeyes have had 34 offensive drives end with a 3-and-out punt. That’s 10 more drives than the next closest Power 5 school. Fortunately, Kirk Ferentz’s team is very good at punting, ranking second nationally with 45.24 net yards per attempt. This focus on field position and stout defense may not be pleasing to watch, but it has been ruthlessly effective. In a 15-6 win over Wisconsin, Iowa did not take a single snap inside the Badgers’ 20-yard line.
Minnesota’s offense has not been much better than Iowa’s. The aerial attack led by quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis ranks 113th in completion percentage and only one spot above the Hawkeyes (127th) with 132.8 passing yards per game. It is no wonder that the over/under for this matchup is 31.5, tied for the lowest point total for a game since 2006 (the other one was last year’s meeting between these two teams).
The Golden Gophers have lost eight straight in the series and the last 10 games in Iowa City. Outside of a 31-0 loss to Penn State, Iowa has not allowed an opponent to score more than 16 points in any game this season. I don’t expect that to change this weekend.
Tennessee +9 at Alabama: Neither of these teams have played to their archetypal expectations in recent weeks. Josh Huepel’s fast-paced offense has struggled in the passing game. In last week’s win against Texas A&M, Joe Milton managed only 100 passing yards and was sacked 3 times. On the other sideline, Alabama, usually known for having an offensive line stacked with NFL-ready talent, has struggled to protect quarterback Jalen Milroe. The Crimson Tide have yielded 4 or more sacks in five consecutive games, an ignominious streak that ties a record going back 20 years in the FBS.
Overall, I think Alabama is the marginally better team and will be assisted by a hostile crowd in Bryant-Denny Stadium. Still, I’ll take the points here given Tennessee’s ability to run the ball effectively. Averaging 231.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per rushing attempt, I expect the Volunteers to keep this rivalry game close.
Air Force at Navy Under 37: In the betting business, this is referred to as a “system play.” Since 2005, the record for choosing the under in a game between two service academies is 43-10-1. You cannot find a record this lopsided against the spread anywhere in the sports betting world.
Because these programs have historically used a run-heavy triple option system, there tend to be fewer possessions. This season is no different, as Air Force boasts the nation’s top rushing attack in yards per game while Navy ranks fifth. 37 points was an initially concerning number given how dominant the Falcons have looked on offense this season; the Air Force offense has scored 30 or more points in five of six games. However, quarterback Zac Larrier was injured against Wyoming and will be out for several weeks. In addition to being the only player on the roster who has attempted a pass this season, Larrier is the team’s second leading rusher. His replacement, Jensen Jones, had 2 fumbles in the fourth quarter.
In taking the under, I’m banking on a long history of low-scoring games for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy and assuming that Air Force struggles without its most important offensive player.
Upset Special
- Record to date: 4-3
Pittsburgh ML at Wake Forest (+120): No coach in college football seems to relish the role of the underdog quite like Pat Narduzzi. Last week’s game against Louisville was the fourth time in Narduzzi’s Pittsburgh career that he faced a team with a 6-0 or better record in the regular season. The Panthers won three of those games outright, including a 17-point win against the Cardinals.
Defense has been the key for Pittsburgh, as they rank 8th in the country in forcing 3.33 sacks per game and 24th in total yards allowed. Though the offense has been anemic, it showed signs of life last week after Narduzzi’s decision to turn over the reins to quarterback Christian Veilleux.
As for Wake Forest, I see a team going in the wrong direction after three consecutive losses. Dave Clawson benched quarterback Mitch Griffis for his poor play against Virginia Tech, but he will be back as a starter this week after an injury to Michael Kern, his replacement. During the losing streak, Griffis has completed 40 of 72 passes for 374 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. This is not the level of accuracy or decision-making you want to see from a quarterback in Clawson’s “slow mesh” offensive system. This should be a competitive defensive game, but I have no confidence in the Demon Deacons right now.
Random Fact to Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
Though a Virginia victory in Chapel Hill seems unlikely, college football is always full of surprises. This stat, courtesy of Conor O’Neill, may provide some semblance of hope for the Cavalier faithful: each of the last four weeks, an ACC team with a record below .500 has knocked off a previously unbeaten school.
- Week 4: Georgia Tech 30, Wake Forest 16
- Week 5: Clemson 31, Syracuse 14
- Week 6: Georgia Tech 23, Miami 20
- Week 7: Pittsburgh 38, Louisville 21
Here’s hoping the Hoos can keep this streak going with an upset win against the hated Tar Heels.
SabreBetrics is written by a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
