There’s a common saying that is often used during rivalry games: “when these two teams meet, you can throw out the record books.” The idea is that even teams who have struggled throughout the season will have extra motivation to punch above their weight for a singular game. I recommend pushing back against this conventional wisdom.
Yes, rivalries can produce surprising results and dramatic upsets, but this happens every week of the college football season. I never advise casting aside meaningful data when making predictions. Pick the teams that are playing the best football and have healthy players, regardless of the stakes of the game and whether they are traveling to a hostile environment.
Let’s look at this week’s best bets and predictions.
Virginia Predictions Week 13
- Record to date: 6-5 on spread, 6-5 on over/unders
VPISU -3 at Virginia, Under 53
One week out from the Commonwealth Clash, Virginia produced its most complete effort of the season against Duke. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea was sharp and mistake free, the defense forced timely turnovers, and the coaching staff made aggressive (and statistically advisable) decisions to maintain possession. The Cavaliers will look to duplicate this effort against its intrastate rival, a team that must win to earn bowl eligibility.
After a poor start to the season, Virginia Tech’s season turned around when making the move to quarterback Kyron Drones. The dual-threat transfer from Baylor is not the most accurate passer (only 59.1% on the season), but he rarely makes mistakes and has the arm talent to stretch the field. More pressingly, he can escape the pocket and extend drives with his rushing ability. The last two weeks, he has led the team with 186 yards rushing on 29 carries. The Hokies rely more heavily on the ground game for their offensive success (55% of play calls are rushes), so Virginia will need an exceptional effort from its front seven. The Cavaliers will also need to capitalize on one of Virginia Tech’s primary weaknesses: an offense that ranks 116th in the FBS in converting on third down (32.9%).
On the other side of the ball, Brent Pry has tried to emulate many of the aggressive defensive schemes that were common during the Bud Foster years. The results have been mixed thus far. The Hokies have an above average scoring defense, averaging 24.9 points allowed per game (59th in the FBS). Run defense has been subpar, conceding 4.4 yards per carry and nearly 159 yards on the ground per game. Where Tech excels is in clear passing situations. The Hokies have the seventh best passing defense in the country and boast one of the nation’s best sack rates on drop backs. Virginia’s offensive line has struggled at times this season and may be undermanned due to injuries. Whoever starts for UVA at quarterback will need to get the ball out quickly.
Given how these teams have played over the last month, I think the Hokies have a higher ceiling, but a lower floor. The short line suggests that this game could go either way, but the underlying metrics, particularly passing defense, favor Virginia Tech. How can I live with myself in picking my school’s most hated rival? Well, when I picked Virginia against Georgia Tech, the team was beaten by 4 touchdowns. When I picked against the Cavaliers last week, they got the victory over Duke. With this trend developing, I can’t leave anything to chance this week. Hokies edge the Hoos, 28-23.
Important note for this section: As a Virginia alum and regular reader of The Sabre, I love talking about the Cavaliers. However, I never bet for or against Virginia in my personal portfolio.
Week 13 Best Bet Predictions
- Season record: 28-33-1.
Though I am rooting for the home team in the Commonwealth Clash, I will be placing my money this week on several road teams in rivalry games.
Oregon State +14 at Oregon: This year’s rendition of “The Civil War” has added meaning because the series is in jeopardy with Oregon’s departure to the Big 10. The Ducks have plenty to play for as they look to sneak into the College Football Playoff. While Bo Nix and the Oregon offense have been firing on all cylinders this season, it is fair to wonder what the record would be against quality competition. Oregon’s only game against a team currently in the Top 25 was a close loss at Washington in mid-October.
The Beavers are absolutely a quality opponent. The offense under DJ Uiagalelei has averaged 36.3 points and 441 yards per game this season. The defense has been solid as well, ranking in the top 25 nationally in turnovers forced per game, sack rate, and yards allowed per rush attempt. The Ducks should be favored, but I see this as a back-and-forth contest that will test Oregon’s College Football Playoff pedigree.
Clemson -7 at South Carolina: Both teams enter the Palmetto Bowl with three-game winning streaks, but Clemson’s victories against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina are decidedly more impressive. Since his epic rant against Tyler from Spartanburg, Dabo Swinney has gotten a response from his players. The run game, anchored by talented backs Will Shipley and Phil Mafah, has been particularly effective during this recent stretch. In the last three games, Clemson has accrued 683 yards on the ground with 6 touchdowns.
If Clemson wants to take advantage of a porous South Carolina secondary, it should be able to do that as well. The Gamecocks rank near the bottom of the FBS in passing yards allowed per game (260.5) and sack rate (4.53%). As well as quarterback Spencer Rattler has played this season, he has not been able to win games on his own this season. The last time South Carolina won against Clemson when entering the contest with a worse than .500 record was in 1992. I expect Clemson to keep positive momentum going and knock its hated rival out of bowl contention.
Wisconsin -2 at Minnesota: The Badgers are another team that can keep a rival out of a bowl game with a win. Wisconsin’s defense has played well throughout the season, holding opposing teams to 19.4 points per game and quarterbacks to only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. However, the offense has struggled to keep up, particularly following an October injury to quarterback Tanner Mordecai that kept him out for a month. With Mordecai back at the helm last week against Nebraska, Wisconsin avoided costly turnovers and converted on 7 of 15 third down attempts.
The Golden Gophers’ offense makes Wisconsin look explosive by comparison. Only Northwestern and Rutgers average fewer yards of offense among Power 5 schools than Minnesota. Having an offense that ranks 124th nationally in total passing yards could be explained away by P.J. Fleck’s run-heavy approach, but Minnesota also ranks 103rd in percentage of passes intercepted and 121st in completion percentage. Given Athan Kaliakmanis’ complete inability to throw the ball effectively, Wisconsin should be able to stack the box and bottle up the Minnesota ground game. Expect the Badgers to win back Paul Bunyan’s Axe in Minneapolis.
Arizona -10 at Arizona State: Making the switch to quarterback Noah Fifita completely changed the tenor of the Wildcats’ season and revitalized the offense. Fifita has completed 73.6% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions since taking over the starting job. During the team’s current five-game winning streak, Arizona has an average margin of victory of 17 points and has scored nearly 35 points per game. This bodes well for Jedd Fisch’s squad heading into the Duel in the Desert against an Arizona State team that has struggled to put points on the board this season.
The Sun Devils rank 107th nationally in yards gained per game (323.7) and have scored only 22 offensive touchdowns this season. An early season injury to talented freshman quarterback Jaden Rashada certainly hasn’t helped. He may be available for this game after missing the previous nine games with an injury. Even if that helps the Arizona State offense, it is asking a lot of a young quarterback to return to the team and lead it to victory against a rival playing great football.
Washington State +16.5 at Washington: It has been a tumultuous final season in the Pac-12 for Washington State. After starting the year 4-0, the Cougars lost six consecutive conference games before taking out their frustrations on Colorado last week in a 42-point blowout. Even with the losses, Washington State has been competitive in virtually every game this season. Quarterback Cameron Ward has played his best football of the season against quality competition, completing 66.9% of his passes for 1,039 yards, 6 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions.
Though we tend not to think of rivalry games as “look-ahead” spots, Washington does have bigger games in its immediate future. The Pac-12 Championship game has the potential to decide a spot in the College Football Playoff. Though Washington’s offense has been electric this season, the team has looked vulnerable in recent weeks. Since the end of September, the Huskies have only one win by double-digits, a victory against USC that was competitive until the final couple of minutes. I don’t expect the Cougars to win outright, but I’ll gladly take the points and hope Ward and the Washington State offense can keep up.
Georgia -23.5 at Georgia Tech: Many SEC teams used last weekend to play tune-up games ahead of their rivalries. That didn’t work out so well for Auburn. Georgia did the opposite, playing a challenging road game against Tennessee before turning its attention to what loooks like an easy victory against an intrastate rival. Outside of a difficult game against Missouri, the Bulldogs have dominated everyone on the schedule this season. Quarterback Carson Beck has 21 touchdowns to 5 interceptions and holds the fourth ranked QBR in the country. Kirby Smart has another top 10 defense, allowing only 288.1 yards per game. That’s not that far off from the 222.4 rushing yards that Georgia Tech’s defense allows each game. Georgia is going to mow through the Yellow Jackets front line in front of plenty of its own fans in Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Upset Special
- Record to date: 6-6
We are back in the black with money line upsets for the year. Let’s see if THE Ohio State University can keep the momentum going.
Ohio State ML at Michigan (+135): No, I didn’t forget about “The Game.” Michigan’s defense has been dominant this season, allowing a nation-leading average of 9 points per game and ranking first in stop rate. However, the last two weeks things have looked shaky on the offensive side of the ball. After only attempting 8 passes against Penn State, J.J. McCarthy had his worst performance of the season against Maryland, completing only 52.2% of his passes with an interception. It’s almost like they no longer have an advantage in knowing what defenses the other team will run!
Ohio State is no slouch on defense either. The Buckeyes are just below the Wolverines in scoring defense, allowing only 9.27 points per game. Though this rivalry has had its share of high-scoring games in recent years, this iteration may be more of defensive rock fight. Since the start of 2012, Ohio State has only been an underdog four times in the regular season. The Buckeyes won all four of these games outright. Given how both teams have played in the last couple weeks, I like Ohio State to put an end to the Michigan winning streak.
Random Fact To Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
Hoos fans are unfortunately familiar with extended losing streaks against rival competition. After 15 years of misery, Virginia finally broke through with a thrilling 39-30 win over Virginia Tech in 2019. Though the years between wins felt like an eternity for the Cavalier fan base, it pales in comparison to other rivalry streaks. Between 1964 and 2006, Notre Dame accumulated an FBS record of 43 consecutive wins over Navy. The longest active streak between FBS teams is Ohio State’s 28 straight wins over Indiana, though one of these victories was vacated because of self-imposed NCAA sanctions. Hopefully, the Hoos can put an end to the current two-game slide against the Hokies on Saturday.
SabreBetrics is written by a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
