Everything You Need To Know: UNC

By: Kris Wright |
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Virginia’s defense faces a tough UNC offense this week. ~ Mike Ingalls

After a disappointing loss at Duke last week, Virginia wants to get back on track with a win against North Carolina at home. That would help the Hoos stay in the Coastal Division hunt and move the team to within one victory of bowl eligibility. It won’t be easy against a high-scoring UNC squad. Plus, Mike London has yet to win as a head coach in this rivalry.

Here’s everything you need to know for Homecomings against North Carolina.

Essentials

Game Nuggets

  • Virginia has played North Carolina more than any opponent in its football history, making Saturday’s 119th meeting the “South’s Oldest Rivalry.” Only Minnesota-Wisconsin (123rd meeting this year) and Kansas-Missouri (120 meetings) have played more often. UNC leads the all-time series 60-54-4.
  • Saturday marks Homecomings at Virginia. UVa is 45-42-2 all-time record in the Homecomings game. Against UNC, Virginia is 1-1 on Homecomings day.
  • Virginia coach Mike London is 0-4 against North Carolina. Carolina head coach Larry Fedora is 4-0 against UVa with two wins at Southern Miss and two at UNC.
  • UVa has intercepted nine passes this season and returned two for touchdowns. North Carolina has intercepted at least one pass in six of seven games this season and returned three for touchdowns.
  • The Cavaliers have scored on 25 of 29 red zone possessions this season (86.2%) but has just 15 touchdowns (51.7%). The Tar Heels have scored on 30 of 32 red zone possessions this season (93.8%) with 25 TDs (78.1%).

Spotlight On Mack Hollins

North Carolina’s high-octane offense comes to Charlottesville this weekend. The Tar Heels enter the game averaging 38.7 points each outing. That is tied for 17th in the national rankings. UNC has piled up 2,100 passing yards and 1,066 rushing yards.

Obviously with such lofty offensive numbers, Carolina has a lot of players contributing to the cause. Quarterback Marquise Williams stole most of the headlines the past few weeks with a strong blend of running and passing (plus a touchdown catch at Notre Dame). Receiver Ryan Switzer leads the Tar Heels with 34 catches for 429 yards and three touchdowns to go along with his punt return duties. Virginia fans likely remember receiver Quinshad Davis, who had 16 catches in Scott Stadium two years ago. He has 21 catches for 267 yards and four touchdowns this season.

One player some fans may not be as familiar with for UNC is Mack Hollins. The sophomore receiver leads the team in touchdown catches and yards per catch (18.1). Hollins has registered 24 catches for 435 yards and five touchdowns. After walking on at North Carolina, he earned his way on to the field with special teams and then rose to special teams captain too. Now he’s a big piece of one of the nation’s top scoring offenses. One thing that won’t surprise Virginia fans? Hollins played for John Shuman at Fork Union Military Academy.

“Mack was a guy that we didn’t realize how good Mack was going to be actually. We thought he was okay. He came in here, and we did not realize he had the speed he did. We knew he had the length, and we knew he had the potential because of that length and that he could run a little bit, but when he got here, I mean, he really showed a tremendous burst, but not only that, just a tremendous will to be good,” Carolina coach Larry Fedora said. “I mean, he started on all four special teams as a true freshman and then was elected as a captain of the special teams by his peers, and it was strictly because of his effort.”

Match-Ups To Watch

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Kevin Parks needs to be a big piece of the game plan. ~ Mike Ingalls

Virginia’s Kevin Parks and run blocking vs. North Carolina’s front seven. The Tar Heels enter this game ranked 109th nationally (out of 128 teams) in run defense, allowing 218 yards per game. One week after facing Duke’s questionable run defense (tied for 100th nationally at 193.4 yards per game allowed), the Cavaliers need to create better production on the ground this week after just 140 yards rushing in Durham. Whether that means better play-calling, a better run-pass ratio, or better execution from the players, another ho-hum rushing day likely will spell disaster. This is senior Kevin Parks’ last game ever against an ACC team from his home state of North Carolina, where he felt overlooked in recruiting as a record-setting runner in the state. Give him the ball. Challenge the offensive line to send him out on a high note in this personal rivalry of sorts.

UVa’s Eli Harold and Max Valles vs. UNC’s John Ferranto and Jon Heck. After pushing his season total to 5.5 sacks with two in the Kent State game, Harold has been shut out in the two games since. Taking on Ferranto, a 290-pound sophomore, Harold needs better production from his end slot to help knock Carolina off down-and-distance schedule. Valles, meanwhile, has just one-half a sack in the three games since notching a sack at BYU. He’ll see Heck, a 300-pound sophomore, on his side. In Virginia Tech’s win against Carolina, its edge rush and containment created all kinds of problems for the UNC offense, leading to sacks from the interior, uncomfortable throwing room for Marquise Williams, and limited escape routes. If the Hoos are going to slow down the Tar Heels, they need their edge rushers to be tone-setters in this critical game.

North Carolina quarterback Marquise Williams vs. Virginia’s secondary. Last season, Williams made just his second career start in the game against UVa, taking the reins after a season-ending injury to Bryn Renner. Williams donned Renner’s No. 2 jersey and proceeded to destroy the Hoos with 185 yards passing (two touchdowns), 46 yards rushing (one touchdown), and 29 yards receiving (one touchdown). This season, Williams is one of six players in the country leading his team in both passing yards (1,776) and rushing yards (448). He’s tied with Ronald Curry for most career rushing TDs (13) by a quarterback at UNC and he’s been on fire the last two weeks (898 total yards of offense vs. Notre Dame and Georgia Tech). With several talented receivers – Ryan Switzer, Quinshad Davis, Mack Hollins, and Bug Howard – at his disposal, everyone in the UVa secondary will need to be on top of their game this week.

Kris’ Keys

1. Commit to the run. Not everyone agrees, but count me in the group that believes Virginia’s pass-happy game plan was perplexing in a tight contest against Duke and its poor run defense last week. This is a chance for a redo against an equally bad run defense from North Carolina. Commit to the run. Challenge the players to rise to the occasion.

2. Turnovers. This could be a key every week, but it’s important in this one. The Tar Heels do take the ball away and that can spell trouble for the Hoos. UNC has 16 take-aways this season (tied for 19th nationally), which isn’t far off of UVa’s 19 take-aways (tied for fourth nationally). The Cavaliers won’t win this one with a defensive shutout so the offense can’t give away scoring opportunities against a porous Carolina group.

3. Tackle and break tackles. While both teams have created turnovers on defense, only Virginia consistently has slowed down opponents. The Cavaliers have allowed just 22.1 points per game (tied for 39th nationally), while North Carolina’s defense allows 43.3 points per game (127th out of 128 nationally). The reasons why those numbers are so different can be found throughout the statistics, but third down (UVa’s 35.64%/43rd nationally vs. UNC’s 49.53% allowed/121st nationally) and big plays allowed (UVa’s 24 plays allowed of 20+ yards vs. UNC’s 47 plays allowed of 20+ yards) are two of the main culprits. Virginia has tackled fairly well all season, while Carolina has missed tackles and lost contain consistently all season. Yards after contact could be a key stat this weekend.

The Pick

It’s hard to pin down what last week meant to the Virginia football season. Did UVa’s loss at Duke indicate the start of a slide or merely a hiccup against a tough team at home (the Blue Devils have now won eight straight in Durham)? I’m leaning toward the latter despite a nagging feeling that the Hoos let a big, big opportunity slip away last week. Still, the team was in it late with a chance to win. That’s been true every single week this season and this team has won more of those than it has lost. That looks like a good football team to me. Can the Wahoos wind up better than “good” this season, though? The stretch run begins with a team that Mike London has never beaten.

Virginia can win if … the offense gets in gear. After a pair of promising outings against BYU (33 points, 519 yards) and Kent State (45 points, 520 yards), the offense went back to its sluggish and inconsistent ways under Steve Fairchild the last two games (17 points, 346 yards against Pitt and 13 points, 465 yards against Duke). In Fairchild’s 17 FBS games at the helm, UVa has broken 30 points just twice (the two games above) and averages 18.4 points per game. For the six FBS games this season, it’s a much more respectable 26.3 points per game but inconsistent execution during the past two contests is still worrisome. I think the Hoos will need at least 26 to win this week.

Virginia can lose if … the defense can’t force punts or field goals. North Carolina’s offense will produce some points, but if the defense can minimize the damage, the Hoos will have a chance. That’s easier said than done of course. The Tar Heels are tied for 17th nationally in scoring at 38.7 points per game and, as noted in the game nuggets above, they are very efficient in the red zone. Still, Virginia’s defense has been good against the run this season and has buckled down on many key drives in wins. If the Cavaliers can keep the Heels in the 20-30 range on the scoreboard, then this should be a win. If not? Bad news I think.

And the winner is … Virginia. I expect a highly motivated and focused group to take the field Saturday because of how important this game is in the season’s big picture. Plus, like UVa, North Carolina hasn’t won on the road yet this season. Expect plenty of nervous moments, but I think the Hoos prevail. Virginia 34, North Carolina 27. Prediction record to date: 5-2.