For each game this season, The Sabre will present a final peek at the week’s match-up with a new feature called Priorities, Picks, and Power Players. In the “Priorities” section, we take a look at the keys to a Virginia victory. In the “Picks” section, Sabre Editor Kris Wright and another Sabre representative make a case for who will win and give you a final score. In the “Power Players” section, The Sabre predicts who some of the key players could be for that Saturday’s showdown.
Take a look at Southern Miss!
Priorities |
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1. Block somebody. The Sabre includes this key for the second straight week – that’s because a lot of the offense’s problems can be traced to the offensive line’s blocking troubles. The O-Line may have been the second biggest UVa storyline this week. Time to get the spotlight off their backs with a better outing. 2. Score some points. As elementary and silly as that sounds, UVa needs to put some points on the board. Offense, special teams, defense – doesn’t matter how the Hoos score, but 14 points per game isn’t going to produce many wins in college football. 3. Quick throws. On Hoos Talking on Wednesday night (free archived audio here), former Virginia coach George Welsh said it only takes 2.5 seconds of protection generally to make a lot of passes. UVa can help its linemen out by embracing a 2.5-second rule this week. Make quick decisions and quick throws and see how the offense does. 4. More success with aggression. The Cavaliers have not produced much pressure on the opposing quarterback yet this season with just 3 sacks and 0 hurries. They have blitzed at times to try to up the pressure, but they haven’t had much success. The Hoos need to be more aggressive more often this week and hope it provides a spark. |
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Picks |
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KRIS ON THE GOLDEN EAGLES After a pair of home games, Virginia hits the road for the first time this season with a trip to Southern Miss. At the Hoos’ weekly press conference, reporters asked numerous questions with this sort of theme: “Is it good that you’re going on the road this week considering how rough the home atmosphere has been so far?” Apparently, everyone forgot UVa’s recent road history. Virginia is 2-6 in road openers and 3-8 in non-conference road games under Al Groh. Last season, the Hoos finished 1-4 on the road. The first game away from Scott Stadium a year ago also followed two shaky home performances. The only difference is the Cavaliers’ record was 1-1 instead of 0-2. The result in that road opener? A 45-10 blowout loss at UConn. In other words, history isn’t on UVa’s side. Still, it all comes down to match-ups in the end. Uh oh. The Golden Eagles bring one of the nation’s hottest offenses into this contest. They’re averaging 39.0 points and 507.5 yards per game so far in 2009. UVa, meanwhile, has allowed 28.0 points and 344.5 yards per game. Advantage Southern Miss. Defensively, the Golden Eagles have given up averages of 9.5 points and 182.5 yards per game. Offensively, the Hoos have averaged 14.0 points and 222.5 yards. Advantage Southern Miss. Long story short, it doesn’t look good for Virginia on paper. But the biggest concern has to be the match-up between offenses. The Golden Eagles are going to try to make this a track meet. They’ll pile up yards and points in a hurry. They have 10 touchdowns already this season. You have to add up the last 6 games for Virginia to reach 10 touchdowns – all the way back to last season’s Miami contest. The bottom line is that UVa simply can’t keep up. So, The Sabre chose a really bad season to add “Picks” to the pregame list of articles huh? Southern Miss 38, UVa 14 – Kris Wright, Sabre Editor |
GREG ON THE GOLDEN EAGLES On the heels of facing a very good TCU defense, Virginia may actually be facing a better outfit Saturday in Hattiesburg. The Eagles have held their opening opponents to 62 and 15 yards respectively on the ground and a 1.43 YPC rushing average. They are extremely stingy on first down, giving up a 44% completion percentage and only 2.21 YPC rushing. That does not bode well for a Virginia offensive line that has been woefully ineffective at protecting the QB or opening holes for the running game. To be fair, Southern Miss has not been playing Texas or Florida. Alcorn State is a perennial FCS loser and UCF’s offense is just two spots ahead of Virginia in total offense – that’s not saying much. Still, the defense has been effective. I do expect a twist from UVa this weekend and really look for some modifications to the offensive system this week. As I noted in The Sabre’s game grades section “… the solution seems obvious: limit the spread and go more frequently to a two-receiver, maximum-protection offense until the offensive line can right itself. Of course, that goes against everything I said in the preseason about picking an offense and sticking with it. But clearly the line is not ready for the new scheme.” Typically with a bye week upcoming, the conventional wisdom is if a change is going to be made, do so then. But in this case, I think making a change before an out-of-conference road game in order to get out the kinks and have a bye week to make adjustments and corrections before conference play has merit. In the preseason I said the likelihood of victory in this game was 45% and predicted a final score of Southern Miss 24, UVa 21. The Golden Eagles will be caught looking past Virginia with a trip to No. 22 Kansas next week but the outcome won’t change. Birds 23, UVa 14 – Greg Waters, Sabre Contributor |
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Power Players |
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Joe Torchia . We almost included UVa’s lead tight end here last week. Why? The offensive line needs help so more in-line TE sets vs. looks with four or more receivers seems like a logical move. If rumors of a shift in offensive schemes are true, then you’ll see more standard O-Line splits and more tight end sets than you did the first two weeks. Hopefully, Torchia is up to the task. Chase Minnifield . With Vic Hall listed as “doubtful” on the injury report again, Minnifield likely will be the lead punt returner again this week (unless Perry Jones slides in there now that he’s burned his redshirt) so he’ll have a chance to make an impact on special teams. A good day here could provide better field position for a struggling offense (UVa’s punt return group gave up 81 yards in hidden yardage last week). Tim Smith . Virginia’s true freshman receiver made a big-time play on his touchdown catch last week by wrestling the ball away from the defender. Yes, it was late and the score was meaningless. Still, it was an impressive play. The offense needs some more of that. |
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