The calendar now reads February and that means college basketball fans want to read about bracketology. Here is a full breakdown through 1 p.m. on Monday, Feb. 6.
My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX. It is my 6th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com. Discuss it on the message board.
I slipped Virginia down to the first 4 seed on my update Monday morning after the loss to Virginia Tech over the weekend. The loss itself wasnt a bad loss as it is a Q1 loss with VT having a NET of 50 (loss to a top 75 NET team on the road is Q1 loss). Iowa State though jumped UVA after a big win over Kansas.
Baylor and Xavier are 7-6 and 7-4 respectively vs. Q1 teams while UVA is only 4-4 and that is why I have those teams higher on the seeding list. The biggest argument could be against Kansas State, which is 5-4 in Q1 and has a loss in Q2, while all of UVA’s losses are in Q1. KSU’s NET is worse too 21 vs. 15. KSU has slightly better results based metrics (KPI/SOR averaged) but worse predictive metrics (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin). So it could go either way.
At the end of the day I thought Kansas State’s top 3 wins @ Texas (NET=8), vs. Kansas (NET=10), and @ Baylor (NET=13) were better than UVA’s top 3 wins of Baylor (Neutral)(NET=13), Illinois (Neutral)(NET=26), and @ Michigan (NET=68). So I gave the edge to Kansas State. UVA has every opportunity this week though to move back to the 3 line with two wins over NC State and Duke at home. As of Monday morning’s update, that would be a Q2 win over NC State (NET=42) and a Q1 over Duke (NET=25).
If the Hoos win against the teams they should beat left on their schedule (@ UL, ND, @ BC, UL) and avoid a bad loss at the ACC Tournament, the Hoos would probably be on the 6/7 seed line at worst. Let’s not think about losses in those 4 games. I think probably realistically the best they can do is a 2 seed with winning out including the ACC Tournament.
The full list entering the week of Feb. 6:
RaleighHOO's Bracketology 2023
| Seed | Power | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Houston* |
| 1 | 2 | Kansas* |
| 1 | 3 | Alabama* |
| 1 | 4 | Purdue* |
| 2 | 5 | UCLA* |
| 2 | 6 | Texas |
| 2 | 7 | Arizona |
| 2 | 8 | Baylor |
| 3 | 9 | Kansas St. |
| 3 | 10 | Gonzaga |
| 3 | 11 | Marquette* |
| 3 | 12 | UConn |
| 4 | 13 | Tennessee |
| 4 | 14 | Xavier |
| 4 | 15 | Virginia* |
| 4 | 16 | Indiana |
| 5 | 17 | Miami (FL) |
| 5 | 18 | Saint Mary's (CA)* |
| 5 | 19 | Duke |
| 5 | 20 | Texas A&M |
| 6 | 21 | San Diego St.* |
| 6 | 22 | Northwestern |
| 6 | 23 | Iowa St. |
| 6 | 24 | TCU |
| 7 | 25 | Kentucky |
| 7 | 26 | Creighton |
| 7 | 27 | Michigan St. |
| 7 | 28 | Missouri |
| 8 | 29 | Iowa |
| 8 | 30 | Maryland |
| 8 | 31 | Arkansas |
| 8 | 32 | Illinois |
| 9 | 33 | Memphis |
| 9 | 34 | Auburn |
| 9 | 35 | West Virginia |
| 9 | 36 | Southern California |
| 10 | 37 | Boise St. |
| 10 | 38 | NC State |
| 10 | 39 | Fla. Atlantic* |
| 10 | 40 | Providence |
| 11 | 41 | Penn St. |
| 11 | 42 | Pittsburgh |
| 11a | 43 | Wisconsin |
| 11a | 44 | Nevada |
| 11b | 45 | Utah St. |
| 11b | 46 | Rutgers |
| 12 | 47 | Col. of Charleston* |
| 12 | 48 | VCU* |
| 12 | 49 | Drake+ |
| 12 | 50 | Oral Roberts* |
| 13 | 51 | Utah Valley* |
| 13 | 52 | Toledo* |
| 13 | 53 | Yale* |
| 13 | 54 | Louisiana* |
| 14 | 55 | Iona* |
| 14 | 56 | Furman* |
| 14 | 57 | Kennesaw St.+ |
| 14 | 58 | UC Irvine* |
| 15 | 59 | Vermont* |
| 15 | 60 | Colgate* |
| 15 | 61 | Montana St.* |
| 15 | 62 | UNC Asheveille+ |
| 16 | 63 | Youngstown St.* |
| 16 | 64 | Grambling* |
| 16a | 65 | Texas A&M CC* |
| 16a | 66 | Howard* |
| 16a | 67 | SE Missouri+ |
| 16a | 68 | Fairleigh Dickinson+ |
- Last Four In: Kentucky, Arkansas, Northwestern, Clemson
- First Four Out: Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Mississippi St., Virginia Tech
- Next Four Out: Penn St., Utah St., Florida, Texas A&M
Notes on my selection process:
- I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
- Conference champions (* teams) in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
- Brackets will be updated at least on Monday and Friday. As we get closer to the end of the season and during conference tournament weeks, it will be updated every day.
You seem especially down on the Hoos this year. 6/7 if they take care of business against lesser teams? Not sure losing one or both Duke and @UNC would cause the hoos to plumment. No other major bracketologist moved UVa from the top #3 seed after chokie loss, and you moved them down to 4 seed? That seems like an overreaction to an annoying but irrelevant loss due to the road and rivalry nature. You also have Tech first four our, while no one else even has them close to in, if mentioned on the bubble at all. Of course the UVa win over NCST and bad VT loss to BC, assures Tech is all but out of NCAAT and hoos remain a 3 seed. Basically where we were a week ago.