College Basketball Bracketology: Virginia In Or Need A Win?

The season began in early November and now Selection Sunday sits less than one week away. Teams have made their cases for the NCAA Tournament in the regular season and now get one final chance in the conference tournaments before the committee releases the bracket. Where does this edition of bracketology project teams as the week begins?

My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX and can be viewed here. It is my 7th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. Last year I finished tied for 4th for the most accurate bracket! I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com. Discuss it on the message board. This bracket release focuses on where teams stand as of 12 p.m. on Monday, March 11.

For Sabre fans,Virginia took care of business by thumping Georgia Tech on Saturday. The win didn’t change UVA’s resume much, but on a day when most bubble teams lost big opportunities to pick up huge wins, it was enough to keep the Hoos in a similar spot. They did slip a spot on my seeding line for now, though.

It was close between Seton Hall, Mississippi State, and Virginia. At the end of the day, UVA has better metrics (performance and predictive) then Seton Hall, but Seton Hall has 5 Q1 wins to Virginia’s 2 with top wins against UConn (NET of 3), Marquette (NET of 13), and at St. Johns (NET of 39). Those are better than UVA’s at Clemson (NET of 26), neutral floor vs. Florida (NET of 35), and Wake Forest (NET of 38). Also Seton Hall is 4-6 vs. teams likely in the NCAA field and UVA is 2-3. Same winning % but Seton Hall has proved a little more. The Pirates do have a bad loss, worse NET, and worse metrics as stated above, but I am just guessing the committee will value their big wins over UVA’s and that would be the difference in deciding between the two.

Mississippi State, meanwhile, has a better NET (42 vs. 51) and predictive metrics average (37.5 vs. 59.5) ,but worse performance metrics average (45.5 vs. 34). The Bulldogs’ best wins are Tennessee (NET of 5), Auburn (NET of 6), neutral floor vs. Washington State (NET of 45), and neutral floor vs. Northwestern (NET of 50). They do have a bad Q4 loss. So again pretty close, I am just guessing if they were considered today, Seton Hall’s and Mississippi State’s big wins would be valued over UVA’s and that is the difference in a close comparison of the 3. But I could be wrong. I think UVA is 3 to 6 teams into the field. Right now, I have UVA as the 4th team into the field away from the cut line, but maybe the committee has them 5 to 6 teams in. It’s close.

With that said, if you are one of the last 4 or 5 teams in the field, you can’t really consider yourself a lock thanks to 1. Potential conference tournament chaos/bid stealers. and 2. The committee could always have a different opinion on you than even the bracketologist consensus. So the Hoos need to treat their game Thursday as a win and in type game. I think that would be the case. A win would likely lock in UVA to the field. A close loss is not terrible but leaves open the door for chaos. A blowout loss could also make things more sensitive to chaos than a close loss.

So for Virginia it is simple now, win and you are in with high confidence, lose and you leave your fate up to others to a degree.

• Last Four In (1st team listed is last team in): New Mexico, St. Johns, Colorado, Virginia
• First Four Out: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Indiana State, Providence
• Next Four Out: Villanova, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Kansas State

When you look at the rest of the bracket, here are a few notes on interesting teams.

Indiana State could be a source of contention this week. The Sycamores lost to Drake in the MVC title game Sunday. The resume is borderline for an at-large bid. Good: NET of 29, Performance metrics average of 39.5, OK predictive average of 41.5. Bad: 1-4 vs. Q1, only 5-5 vs. Q1/Q2, 1 Q4 loss. Only win over an at-large worth tourney teams is over Drake at home.

At the end of the day, I don’t think their resume is deserving of an at-large bid. But with these mid-major teams the committee can sometimes decide it is and evaluate their resumes a little different than power schools. But to be in my bracket, Indiana State is going to need some major things to swing its way this week.

If you are one of the last 4 or 5 teams in the field, even though you may be relatively safe you can’t be considered a lock with so much potential conference tournament chaos to play out. Thus, you probably are in good shape IF you avoid bad losses and win a quality game in the conference tournament.

As of this moment, I think these teams in order of my ranking are battling for 6 at-large bids (Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Virginia, Colorado, St. Johns, New Mexico, Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Indiana State, Providence, Villanova, and Iowa). I think realistically from Pittsburgh (7th team out) down, you probably have to win your conference tournament. Also keep in mind though if Florida Atlantic and Dayton win their tournaments, two spots open up, and today that would put Texas A&M and Wake Forest in my bracket and have Indiana State as the first team out.

Notes on my selection process:

1. I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
2. Conference champions (* teams) in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.