99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff

The ACC Football Kickoff event came and went last week in Charlotte where the most-repeated news from a Virginia standpoint turned out to be the Hoos’ goal to end the 14-game losing streak to Virginia Tech. While that public declaration stirred up some message board chatter, it really wasn’t shocking news was it? Of course, rivals want to beat each other.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series looked at the ‘fighting fire with fire’ tactic against the Hokies and the need to get on the right track against Pittsburgh too last week. Those joined starting fast and dangerous games as schedule pieces in this summer-long feature.

On Monday, the ACC announced the results of media voting at last week’s event so the “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series shifts gears to talk about Virginia’s place in the preseason poll.

No. 45 – I Sense A Trend

The media gathered at the ACC Football Kickoff event voted on the preseason favorites and All-ACC teams last week. The latter will be released later this week, but the preseason poll results came out Monday. The poll placed Clemson as the overwhelming favorite to win the 2018 ACC Championship as 139 of the 148 voters picked the Tigers. Clemson received 145 first-place votes to win the Atlantic Division, while Miami took the top spot in the Coastal Division voting with 122 first-place votes.

You’ll never guess where Virginia landed in the Coastal Division voting. Oh, wait, yes you will. The Cavaliers landed last in the division. For the fifth straight year. I sense a trend.

The good news is that the trend appears to be moving in a new direction. A year ago, they managed just 219 total points, the lowest total of any of the conference teams and well behind Boston College with 283 points at the bottom of the Atlantic Division. This season, the Hoos didn’t get the fewest total votes and picked up several points from 2017. They pulled in 257 total points this season and Syracuse dropped to the bottom spot overall with 232 total points.

Being picked last in the preseason poll by the ACC media likely didn’t catch you off guard, but here’s something that might surprise you, though. In the actual standings at the end of the season, UVA hasn’t finished alone at the bottom of the standings since 2013.

UVA avoided the cellar in 2017 with a 3-5 ACC record that tied with Duke and Pittsburgh in the Coastal Division ahead of North Carolina. The Hoos didn’t finish last alone in 2016 either, matching Duke with a 1-7 ACC record in the Coastal. In 2015, the Cavaliers owned a 3-5 ACC mark that placed them ahead of Georgia Tech. In 2014, the division opponents took turns trading lumps as UVA tied with Virginia Tech and Miami with 3-5 records in league play. The last time the Cavaliers actually finished last alone came in 2013’s winless ACC campaign.

So over the past five years, the ACC media picked Virginia last but the Hoos actually finished last three times and two of those years featured ties at the bottom of the standings. That included 2014 when chaos reigned the division with six of the seven teams finishing between 3-5 and 5-3.

In other words, just because the voters picked UVA last, that might not be an accurate forecast of the season ahead. How can the Cavaliers avoid the bottom spot again this season? And, more importantly, is there room for a surprise run higher in the standings?

Here are five things that have to break right for the Wahoos to defy the predictions:

1. The replacements play well.

In a lot of ways, it makes sense why the media would pick Virginia in the bottom spot in the Coastal Division. The Cavaliers lost their starting quarterback Kurt Benkert, starting middle linebacker Micah Kiser, and starting safety Quin Blanding along with others and suffered some serious overall attrition on the defensive line beyond NFL Draftee Andrew Brown. That’s a lot to replace in terms of leadership and production. If new QB Bryce Perkins, 100-tackle club linebacker Jordan Mack, and Juan Thornhill moving to safety play well, that would go a long ways toward a better year than predicted.

2. The rushing numbers improve on both sides of the ball.

While UVA snapped a six-year bowl-less streak last season, it still didn’t have much balance on either side of the ball. The offense threw for 248.7 yards per game (51st nationally), but rushed for just 93.5 yards per game (128th nationally). The defense, meanwhile, proved stingy against the pass by allowing 165.8 yards per game (7th nationally), but allowed 199.3 rushing yards per game (102nd nationally). It’s hard to win games, particularly against the better teams on your schedule, when you can’t run or stop the run.

3. A kicker finds some range.

As this series outlined in thought No. 56, Virginia has not converted a field goal for 40+ yards in the first two years of the Mendenhall era. That puts a lot of pressure on the offense to drive the ball deep into opponent territory to produce any points or to create explosive scoring plays with chunk yardage otherwise – it’s hard to do both of those consistently. A better kicking game would make finishing higher in the standings easier.

4. The turnover trend continues to improve.

Virginia finished with a negative turnover margin for the seventh time since 2010 last season, but the deficit shrank. Since 2010, the turnover margin looks like this: -7, -7, -14, -5, +5, -9, -9, -1. In other words, last season marked the only time outside of 2014 that the number fell near the even line. If Mendenhall can get his team to the other side of that line or at least near it again, that will boost the chances of a good finish.

5. Win some toss-up games and split the Techs.

Ultimately, if a team is to get into contention for the Coastal Division title, it needs to win most of the toss-up games within the division. To get out of the cellar and to a bowl game, it just needs to win some of those if the non-conference games go well too. This year, that means UVA needs to find some wins among Louisville, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh at home plus NC State and Duke on the road. Those five teams combined for just four first-place votes in the two ACC divisions so that’s not the cream of the crop like Clemson and Miami are expected to be. Winning any three of those games will get the Cavaliers out of the cellar more than likely. Throw in a split between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, two games that occur in less than a week at the end of November, and the Hoos could be closer to the top of the standings than the bottom.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series has discussed much more. The previous articles are below. Click away.

• No. 99 – The Importance Of A Fast Start
• No. 98 – The Impact Of Early-Ending Careers
• No. 97 – Jordan Mack’s Role
• No. 96 – Welcome Back
• No. 95 – Han Solo Says
• No. 94 -Smart Addition
• No. 93 – The Center Spot
• No. 92 – Finding A Punt Returner
• No. 91 – Facing Running Quarterbacks
• No. 90 – Interceptions
• No. 89 – Kickoff Times
• No. 88 – QB Optimism Not Enough To Tilt Early Predictions Too Far
• No. 87 – It Starts With Jordan Ellis
• No. 86 – Virginia’s Most Dangerous Game
• No. 85 – The Tight End Swan Song?
• No. 84 – Teach A Man To Fish
• No. 83 – No Ordinary Joe
• No. 82 – Now Or Then
• No. 81 – How To Treat The Kickoff Rule Change
• No. 80 – Play, But Still Redshirt
• No. 79 – Which Red Zone Offense Is The Real One?
• No. 78 – Schedule For Success
• No. 77 – Who’s The Worst?
• No. 76 – ACC Coach Rankings
• No. 75 – Keep That Cold Weather Gear
• No. 74 – 1,000 Target For OZ
• No. 73 – Cross Out Cross-Training For Cross
• No. 72 – Punting Plans
• No. 71 – Redshirted … Ready?
• No. 70 – A June Jolt
• No. 69 – Who?
• No. 68 – Stops To Start Second Half
• No. 67 – Root, Root, Root For …
• No. 66 – Wildcard Extras
• No. 65 – Defense Showed Red Zone Improvement
• No. 64 – Welcome Back, Mr. Robinson
• No. 63 – The Florida Footprint
• No. 62 – True Freshmen Will Play, But Who Will Make The Most Impact?
• No. 61 – Four Fireworks-Worthy Moments In The Bronco Mendenhall Era
• No. 60 – Juan Thornhill Primed For An All-ACC Caliber Season
• No. 59 – Rebuilding The Offensive Line Is On Schedule
• No. 58 – Bouncing Back On The Defensive Line
• No. 57 – Underrated Hoos
• No. 56 – Lordy, Lordy, How ‘Bout 40?
• No. 55 – Peace Talk
• No. 54 – Hoos’ Handle On Social Media Bodes Well For Future Recruiting
• No. 53 – Filling The Void At Wide Receiver
• No. 52 – The Sixth-Year Seniors
• No. 51 – Borrowing A Burning Question
• No. 50 – Beat Tech!
• No. 49 – A Resolute Leader
• No. 48 – The Perkins Theorem
• No. 47 – Beat Pitt!
• No. 46 – A Look At Virginia Football’s 2018 Walk-On Class