Welcome back to year two of SabreBetrics, a weekly column focused on college sports betting. Allow me to reintroduce myself: I am a Virginia alum and long-time reader of The Sabre. I have been betting on sports for more than a decade and hope to add insight to the discussions already taking place on the message boards.
Each week, I will provide analytical betting advice that can be used by both seasoned gamblers and people who might be interested in sports betting for the first time. My primary goal is to have fun and to encourage you to do the same.
We are exactly one month away from the kickoff of college football. However, there is no need to wait for the start of season to start betting. “Season Win Totals” are a great way to diversify your gambling portfolio by wagering on how many games you think a team will win during the regular season.
These bets are some of my favorites to explore every year for a few reasons:
- Win totals are one of the few categories where sportsbooks routinely make minimal profit and occasionally take losses. The primary objective in offering these bets is to get gamblers into the sportsbook where they might make more lucrative wagers. Compared to other types of bets, you have a better chance of making money. Last year, this column was 6-3-1 with preseason win total bets.
- Individual games, particularly at the college level, can be fluky. Bets can be decided by a meaningless pick-six as time expires or a last second field goal careening off the upright. However, luck tends to even out over the course of a season. The result of your bet feels fairer, win or lose.
- It gives you an excuse to watch more college football and develop rooting interests beyond your own team. Even though I lost money picking UNLV last season, I greatly enjoyed watching and learning about a program I previously knew very little about.
So, how do you choose which teams to bet on?
For many years, one of the most reliable metrics for projecting a team’s progression or regression between seasons was the number of returning starters. Though this is still an important data point to consider, it is complicated with the increase in players transferring between schools. For example, a USC team coming off a 4-8 season is currently one of the most bet on teams to win the 2022 National Championship. The program has received significant preseason hype after the rapid infusion of talent under new head coach Lincoln Riley. Simply relying on returning production would not account for the addition of the 16 high-profile players joining the Trojans’ roster via the transfer portal.
That’s why I also evaluate these data points when looking for teams that might overperform expectations:
- Projected strength of schedule.
- Number of transfers into the program with starting experience.
- Number of close losses in the previous season, as luck tends to balance out over time.
- Continuity of coaching staff, including coordinators.
- Poor turnover differential in the previous season. Turnovers, particularly fumbles, are often the result of luck and are very difficult to find meaningful trends across seasons.
With these factors in mind, I’ve identified six teams that should overperform expectations during the 2022 season. Note: The win total and vig will vary between different sportsbooks.
Season Overs
Kansas State over 6.5 wins (-135): Transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez has been one of the most polarizing college football players in recent years. His explosive playmaking ability has always been hampered by questionable decision-making. In four years at Nebraska, he accumulated 45 passing touchdowns and 35 rushing touchdowns; he also threw 30 interceptions.
At Kansas State, Martinez has more talent in the backfield and won’t need to carry the offense by himself. Running back Deuce Vaughn is the centerpiece of the Wildcats’ offense and one of the best players in the Big 12. The defense should be solid as well, anchored by leading tackler Daniel Green and defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah who ranked 11th nationally in sacks per game. There are only a couple games on the schedule where Kansas State will be a clear underdog. With non-conference home games against South Dakota, Missouri, and Tulane, the Wildcats should be able to match the seven regular season wins from last year.
Kansas over 2.5 wins (-110): Another Sunflower State team is worthy of your attention. Kansas has been one of the worst Power 5 programs over the past decade, but there are signs of a turnaround under second-year head coach Lance Leipold.
Quarterback Jalon Daniels cemented his status as the team’s starting quarterback at the end of the 2021 season, leading the Jayhawks to a stunning victory at Texas and two close losses against TCU and West Virginia. Daniels is one of 17 projected starters returning to Lawrence this season, which ranks in the top 10 nationally for returning production. It may take a few years to get Kansas back to a bowl game, but for this bet to win, you only need the Jayhawks to improve upon their 2021 record by one game. Non-conference games home against Tennessee Tech and Duke will certainly help the cause.
Fresno State over 8.5 wins (-130): Following a 10-3 season, Fresno State head coach Kalen DeBoer left for the vacancy at Washington. The Bulldogs brought back Jeff Tedford who was the head coach from 2017-2019. Tedford laid the groundwork for Fresno State’s recent success; in his first year on the job, Tedford transformed a one-win team into a 10-win program that competed in the Mountain West Championship Game.
The current iteration of the roster has significantly more talent. Eight offensive starters return, including senior quarterback Jake Haener who threw for over 4,000 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2021. The Bulldogs will likely be underdogs in only two games this season (at USC and at Boise State) and avoid playing a talented Air Force squad. Betting on Fresno State provides the added benefit of giving you an excuse to stay up late on Saturdays and watch college football past your normal bedtime.
Bowling Green over 3.5 wins (-150): The rationale for this bet is pretty straightforward. Bowling Green was 4-8 in 2021 with an upset win at Minnesota. The program has the most returning production of any team in the FBS with 18 projected starters back. This is the most talented roster Scot Loeffler (remember him?) has had in his four years as the head coach of the Falcons. Bowling Green will be heavy favorites against FCS foe Eastern Kentucky. That means Bowling Green only needs three more wins in conference play where many games will be toss-ups.
SMU over 7 wins (-115): Head coach Sonny Dykes left SMU for interstate rival TCU. Fortunately, first-year head coach Rhett Lashlee is familiar with the program. During his stint as the Mustangs’ offensive coordinator, Lashlee’s offense set program records averaging 490 yards per game and nearly 42 points per game in 2019. Senior quarterback Tanner Mordecai returns after throwing for a school record 39 touchdowns in 2021. The defense is where SMU has its biggest question mark, though returning seven starters should help. To summarize, you have a first-time head coach with a seasoned quarterback and a high-octane offense that will need to score enough points to mask a troublesome defense. How can UVA fans resist?
Louisville over 5.5 wins (-143): Getting Louisville at this number might take a little bit of searching, but it was still available this week in a couple sportsbooks. After opening at 5.5 in the spring, many sportsbooks have moved this total up to 6 or 6.5 wins.
The movement in the line makes sense when you consider how much production is returning to Louisville; senior quarterback Malik Cunningham is one of 14 projected starters returning to a team that won six games a season ago. Cunningham is one of the most dangerous players in the ACC in open space; in 2021, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry and rushed for 20 touchdowns. The Cardinals’ weakness was on defense, allowing an average of 27.3 points per game (77th in the FBS). Any improvement on defense, which you would expect based on returning production, will make Louisville a difficult out. If you can get past betting your money on one of UVA’s “top rivals”, there is value in picking the Cardinals to return to a bowl in 2022.
Next week, we will explore teams that are likely to underperform their expected win totals. In the meantime, sound off in the comments with teams you will be financially adopting as your own for the season!
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre.com and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
