Every Wednesday during the fall, SabreBetrics explores college football from an analytical sports betting perspective. Thus far, we have focused only on programs and their preseason expectations. This week, we are delving into betting opportunities for one of the prestigious individual awards in sports: the Heisman Memorial Trophy.
The Heisman is awarded to college football’s most outstanding player as determined by sports journalists and previous recipients. It is one of the only individual college football prop bets available at most sportsbooks (though some are growing more adventurous as gambling increases in popularity).
Looking at past winners provides a helpful lens for uncovering potential betting candidates. Certain pieces of historical information are more intuitive than others. For instance, it may not surprise you to learn that quarterbacks have a significant advantage in contending for the award. Since 2000, 18 of the 22 winners have been quarterbacks. If you are a running back or wide receiver not wearing an Alabama Crimson Tide jersey, your chances decrease further. Reggie Bush (2005) was the last non-quarterback outside of Nick Saban’s program to win the Heisman (though he was later stripped of the award).
Similarly, Heisman Trophy winners generally come from established football powerhouses. The last Heisman winner from a school currently outside of a “Power 5” conference was BYU’s Ty Detmer in 1990. Oklahoma and Alabama combine for 4 of the last 5 winners. Based on this information, the ideal candidate seems to be a talented quarterback at a perennial contender. Indeed, the current Vegas favorites for the award are last year’s winner Bryce Young from Alabama (+450) and C.J. Stroud from Ohio State (+225).
However, the Heisman picture is much more complicated from a betting perspective. Sportsbooks have a poor track record of correctly identifying who will ultimately get invited to the awards ceremony. Since 2010, only one preseason favorite – Marcus Mariota in 2014 – has won the award. Similarly, since 2009, there have been 121 players who entered the season with +2000 odds or better to win the Heisman Trophy; only 22 of these players even finished in the top 5 in voting. Ironically, preseason hype can work against athletes because it suggests that they already have an established track record of success. This makes it more difficult to have a breakout season that will impress voters. In the cases of freshmen Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston, they had no track record at all which made their statistics even more impressive.
Though betting on long-shots is usually not a winning gambling strategy, there can be a lot of value when placing bets on the Heisman in the preseason. Similarly, there is not much incentive to lock in bets on the current favorites. If Stroud or Young dominate the Heisman race early in the season, you can always jump on the bandwagon without sacrificing too much value.
With these considerations in mind, I have three Heisman hopefuls that are worthy of your consideration:
Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+3000): In the last few weeks, sportsbooks have significantly shortened the odds on Smith-Njigba because of an influx of sizable bets on the speedy Buckeye wideout. Despite putting up video game numbers in the second half of the 2021 season, Smith-Njigba still flew under the radar for many casual fans because he split receptions with two top 10 NFL Draft picks in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. That changed during the Rose Bowl, as Smith-Njigba exploded for 347 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.
Though he will once again have to share the ball with other talented skill players, Smith-Njigba is the top passing option for C.J. Stroud and can line up at any receiving position. Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith’s successful 2020 Heisman campaign (117 receptions, 1,856 yards, 23 touchdowns) provides a useful roadmap for Smith-Njigba’s chances. National coverage of every Ohio State game won’t hurt either.
Cameron Rising QB Utah (+8000): Cameron Rising checks all the boxes for an ideal Heisman candidate. Despite putting up impressive numbers in his sophomore season, Rising has a clear opportunity for growth. He started 2021 as Utah’s back-up quarterback after having shoulder surgery in the offseason. The lingering effects of his recovery kept Rising from being able to throw the ball accurately down the field. He still ranked sixth in QBR, combining for nearly 3,000 yards of total offense and 26 touchdowns. On paper, this appears to be the most talented team of Kyle Whittingham’s tenure at Utah, and certainly his most potent offense. If Rising reaches his potential and the Utes are in the College Football Playoff discussion by late October, he should get plenty of national attention.
Malik Cunningham QB Louisville (+10000): Throughout his career, Malik Cunningham has been unfairly compared to fellow Louisville quarterback and 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. However, the comparison may be helpful in raising Cunningham’s profile. In the year before Jackson’s breakout season, he put up the following numbers:
- Passing: 1,840 yards, 54.7% on completions, 12 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
- Rushing: 960 yards, 11 touchdowns
Cunningham’s 2021 season was better in every statistical category:
- Passing: 2,941 yards, 62% on completions, 19 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
- Rushing: 1,031 yards, 20 touchdowns
Now playing in his fifth season, Cunningham is the centerpiece of the Cardinals’ offense and a legitimate danger to score a touchdown with each carry. The biggest obstacle for Cunningham may be the overall strength of Louisville’s team; Vegas currently has the Cardinals’ win total at 6.5 games and that’s a little higher even than when the team was featured in the “overs” group. However, if Cunningham can lead his team to an unexpected contention in the ACC Atlantic, he will be in the Heisman discussion at season’s end.
Wait, what about Brennan Armstrong? With 100-to-1 odds, no one will blame you for dropping a few bucks on the hometown hero. This is Virginia’s most realistic preseason Heisman Trophy contender since Matt Schaub in 2003. Surrounded by talented receivers, Armstrong should be in position for another impressive statistical season.
However, there are reasons to be skeptical that he has a legitimate shot at contending for the Heisman. Despite ranking fourth in total passing yardage, Armstrong was only 23rd in total QBR. The Cavaliers’ offensive line has been completely overhauled and is a question mark entering the season rather than a strength. Head coach Tony Elliott has also expressed an interest in using a more balanced offensive attack. Thus, it is unlikely that we will see Armstrong replicate 500 passing attempts like he did in 2021. The focus on the run game will likely make Virginia a more difficult team to defend against overall, but could put a dent in Armstrong’s overall numbers.
Speaking of Brennan Armstrong, next week we will be previewing UVA’s upcoming season from a betting perspective. Do the Hoos have the roster and schedule to go above the Vegas win total of 7.5 games? Find out next Wednesday!
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of TheSabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with TheSabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
