College football is finally back! Not tortuous conversations about realignment, media contracts, and NIL laws, but real, meaningful football games to watch. And whenever there is football, there is also the opportunity to bet on football to supplement your viewing experience.
As I suggested ahead of last year’s opening week, gambling moderation is key as the season gets started. Even though you have waited all offseason for this opportunity, it is decidedly not fun to quickly blow through your budget in a single day. Wagering on college sports is difficult, but it is particularly complicated in the opening weeks of the season when there is limited information available. Teams that are active in the transfer portal or have coaching changes are especially hard to predict in September.
Take Colorado, one of the most newsworthy FBS programs of the offseason, as an example. Following a 1-11 season, the Buffaloes brought in Deion Sanders. He has spent the last several months remaking the roster with 51 incoming transfers, many of whom are transitioning from the FCS ranks. How will Colorado fare against a TCU program that lost most of its key talent from the roster that was playing for the National Championship just a few months ago? I have no idea, and I’m not sure Deion does either!
Still, we will endure. Sports betting waits for no man. Here’s my preview of the best bets in the season’s opening weekend.
Virginia Week 1 Forecast
**Important note for this section: As a Virginia alum and regular reader of The Sabre, I love talking about the Cavaliers. However, I never bet for or against Virginia in my personal portfolio. I recommend this approach to anyone considering sports betting for the first time: leave your team out of it. Feelings of attachment can cloud your judgment. I will always provide my objective analysis of Virginia’s prospects in this column, but any time I pick against the Cavaliers, you can be sure I am rooting against it. To wit …
Tennessee -28 vs. Virginia, Under 56.
When this game was announced in spring of last year, it looked a lot more interesting on paper. Both programs appeared ascendant with young coaches and high-powered offenses. That prediction proved to be true for Tennessee. In Josh Heupel’s second season in Knoxville, the Volunteers ranked first in the FBS in both points (46.1) and yards (525.5) per game en route to an 11-2 season. As for Virginia … well, we all know how that turned out.
Even though defense is a strength for the Cavaliers, there is almost no scenario in which Heupel’s fast-paced offense does not put up points. Quarterback Joe Milton has one of the best arms in the country and showed real maturity in his decision-making during an Orange Bowl victory over Clemson. The receiving corps loses Bilentnikoff Award-winner Jalin Hyatt, but still has speed with sophomore Squirrel White at the slot, and size with Bru McCoy and transfer Dont’e Thornton on the ends. The running back group, led by returners Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small, may be the best one-two punch in the SEC. It will be the most difficult challenge the UVA defense faces all year, and the Hoos will be without defensive end Chico Bennett Jr., who is still recovering from a fluke knee injury in practice.
The biggest question for the Cavaliers in this game – and really the whole season – is: how will they score? Virginia averaged just 17.0 points per game last season which ranked 126th in the FBS. There’s hope that the offense will progress in year two under Des Kitchings, but there are significant question marks at receiver. There’s also the question of whether Monmouth transfer Tony Muskett is ready to play quarterback at the Power 5 level. Tennessee’s defense dramatically improved in defensive coordinator Tim Banks’ second season. The defensive line and linebackers were the strength of the unit, holding opposing teams to 3.3 yards per carry (12th in the FBS) and forcing nearly two takeaways per game. The Vols’ secondary was less strong, allowing opposing teams to complete 63.2% of pass attempts. To have any chance in this game, Virginia will have to take chances down the field which is not an area of strength.
Even if UVA’s defense plays well, employing a bend-but-don’t-break approach, it is very unlikely that Tennessee can be kept under 30 points. I also don’t see a scenario in which the Hoos can produce that many points without the defense getting involved in the scoring. This one might be ugly on the scoreboard, but I will be looking for positive signs of growth in Tony Elliot’s second year.
I am already sick of hearing “Rocky Top” and the game hasn’t even started. Tennessee over Virginia, 47-7.
Week 1 Best Selections
Minnesota -7 vs. Nebraska: Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule has an established track record of building winning cultures. However, it generally takes a couple years to turn around the fortunes of a program in disarray. In Rhule’s first year at Temple, the Owls won only two games. At Baylor, his first season was 1-11. I don’t think Nebraska has the talent yet to compete with an established brand like Minnesota. P.J. Fleck has put together four straight winning seasons and returns six starters on a defense that allowed just over 14 points per game (3rd in the FBS). The Gophers are known for a run-heavy approach, and Western Michigan transfer Sean Tyler coming off back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons will be a centerpiece for the offense. This will be a tough task for Nebraska after allowing 4.55 yards per carry in 2022.
Miami (OH) at Miami (FL) Over 45: This total is artificially low based on both teams’ offensive production in 2022. However, there are reasons to expect significantly more scoring from both Miamis this season. After one of the worst offensive seasons in Hurricanes history, Mario Cristobal fired offensive coordinator Josh Gattis and brought in air raid specialist Shannon Dawson from Houston. I think this will provide a dramatic upgrade to the offense and rejuvenate the career of Tyler Van Dyke. After throwing for 25 touchdowns and nearly 3,000 yards in 2021, he regressed in every statistical category last season. On the other sideline, quarterback Brett Gabbert is also looking for a bounce-back season after injuries kept him out of eight games. In the four he played, the RedHawks were considerably better on offense and able to run more of the playbook than when freshman Aveon Smith was in. Expect both teams to throw the ball around and put points on the board.
Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College: NIU quarterback Rocky Lombardi has traveled a long and winding road to get to this moment. He is entering his third year in DeKalb after three seasons in East Lansing. His 2022 campaign was marred by injuries, but he impressed in the games he was able to play, completing 66.7% of his passes with a 5-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio. Entering the season fully healthy, Lombardi will not be scared of the environment in Chestnut Hill. The lack of talent on the Eagles’ sideline is another reason for confidence. Boston College’s offense was dreadful last season, averaging 17.8 points per game (122nd nationally) and only 2.1 yards per rushing attempt (131st). To make matters worse, Jeff Hafley must replace quarterback Phil Jurkovec who transferred to Pittsburgh and star wideout Zay Flowers, now on the Baltimore Ravens. It wouldn’t surprise me if Northern Illinois wins this game outright, but I will gladly take the extra points.
LSU -2.5 vs. Florida State: This Sunday night showcase is one of the most anticipated games of the season. Both teams have College Football Playoff aspirations and quarterbacks with realistic hopes of winning the Heisman. The matchup between the Florida State offensive line – with 206 career starts returning – and the LSU front seven that features several players with NFL talent alone is interesting. Despite it all, I give the edge to Brian Kelly and the Tigers because of their ground game. LSU was 10-1 last season when rushing for at least 140 yards. Despite their ability to rush the passer effectively, the Seminoles struggled at times last year in stopping the run. FSU gave up 140 yards on the ground six different times last season. Expect the Tigers to avenge last season’s dramatic one-point loss to the Seminoles this time around.
Clemson -13 at Duke: Mike Elko’s Blue Devils were one of the biggest Power 5 surprises in 2022, finishing with a 9-4 record in the coach’s first year. With 18 starters returning, Duke will be a force again in the ACC. However, the schedule is considerably tougher this season; after beating only two FBS teams with a winning record in 2022, Duke faces eight this season. Passing defense was also a significant concern, allowing opposing offenses to average 257.3 yards per game through the air (105th in the FBS). This is what Clemson’s new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley will exploit. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has the talent to compete for the Heisman and play on Sundays. The offensive line returns four starters and has 99 starts of experience under its collective belt. Expect the Tigers to fill Wallace Wade Stadium with fans and throw the ball all over an undermanned Duke secondary.
Upset Special
Fresno State ML at Purdue (+160): After starting the 2022 season 1-4, the Bulldogs finished with nine straight victories, including a dominant bowl win over Washington State. Quarterback Mikey Keene is not as talented as current Saints back-up Jake Haener, but he does have a decent amount of experience and won three of the four games he appeared in last season. This is a difficult opening game for Purdue’s first-time head coach Ryan Walters. With only 11 returning starters, I think it might take a while for the Boilermakers to adjust to the expectations of the new coaching staff. This is a coin-flip game, and I give the edge to the team with the built-in momentum from the end of the 2022 season.
Random Fact to Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
Before sitting down to watch ACC games this weekend, you might want to spend some time familiarizing yourself with the offensive coordinators at each school. The following schools will be breaking in new offensive play-callers this season:
- Clemson (Garrett Riley)
- Miami (Shannon Dawson)
- UNC (Chip Lindsey)
- NC State (Robert Anae)
- Louisville (Brian Brohm)
- Syracuse (Jason Beck)
- Georgia Tech (Buster Faulkner)
- Boston College (Steve Shimko)
Having turnover at this position is nothing new to the conference or college football in general. In fact, only Wake Forest’s Warren Ruggiero, who has been in Winston-Salem since 2014, has been in the OC role at his current ACC school for more than a year. This continuity has certainly contributed to the Demon Deacons’ overperforming expectations in recent years.
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
