Every Thursday during the fall, SabreBetrics explores college football from an analytical sports betting perspective. To date, I have explored teams that will overachieve, underachieve, and compete for conference championships in 2023. This time, we will be looking at some of the highest profile players in the ACC (and NCAA) and projecting their production against Vegas oddsmakers.
For those unfamiliar with sports betting, player prop bets focus on the stat lines of individual athletes. It doesn’t matter what the rest of the team accomplishes on the field or the result of any individual game. For many years, these types of bets were not available outside of a select few sportsbooks, many of which were based overseas. However, with the ubiquitous nature of sports betting in America, you can bet on the number of yards gained or touchdowns scored for many of college football’s most prominent stars.
Because readers of TheSabre.com are primarily focused on the ACC, I have put together a list of my five favorite player prop bets you can wager with athletes in the conference. Note: All lines are based on the regular season only and are adjudicated before championship or bowl games.
ACC Prop Bets
UNC quarterback Drake Maye under 26.5 touchdowns (-115): When I first saw this number, I thought it was a mistake. Fresh off an ACC Player of the Year freshman campaign where he threw 35 regular season touchdowns, Maye was now expected to significantly regress with his passing production? Given the lofty Heisman-caliber expectations surrounding Maye, wouldn’t he be a lock to put up better numbers in his second full season as starter?
I’m not so sure. Though North Carolina will still have a potent offense, Maye will be working with significantly less talent at skill positions. Star wideouts Josh Downs and Antoine Greene are in the NFL now, and coveted transfer Devontez Walker was declared ineligible by the NCAA (Walker/UNC filed an appeal). Maye will also be learning a new offense, as Phil Longo, the coordinator responsible for the Heels’ dynamite offense the last few years, left to take a job at Wisconsin. For the first 10 games of the 2022 season, Maye looked unstoppable, throwing for 35 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. However, in the last two regular season games and in the ACC Championship, his completion percentage dipped under 60% and he threw only one touchdown pass. I expect Maye to play in between these two extremes for most of 2023 and finish just shy of the Vegas number.
Duke quarterback Riley Leonard over 2,650 passing yards (-105): Though I’m not betting on Maye to match his 2022 production, I am bullish on Riley Leonard to beat the pace he set last season. Throwing for 2,794 yards and 20 touchdowns, Leonard led the Blue Devils to an unexpectedly great 9-4 season. Most key pieces on the offense return including receiver Jalon Calhoun who has improved his production every season in the four years he has played in Durham.
The biggest challenge for Duke is that they are playing a significantly harder schedule in 2023. Last year, the Devils beat only two FBS teams with a winning record; this year, they will face eight such teams. However, playing against better opposition might help Leonard’s passing numbers, as the offense is forced to pass more frequently when trailing in games. Leonard has all the tools to play on Sundays and I think this year he becomes a household name outside the ACC.
Wake Forest quarterback Mitch Griffs under 3,100.5 passing yards (+100): In his six appearances last year, Griffs showed that he has the talent to be a starting ACC quarterback. In 41 passing attempts, he completed 70.7% of his passes with 5 touchdowns and only 1 interception. He’s a perfect stylistic successor to Sam Hartman, who transferred to Notre Dame after throwing for 7,932 yards and 77 touchdowns in his last two seasons. Still, I don’t think we should expect Griffs to put up video game numbers in his first year as the full-time starter.
Though Wake returns several key pieces of its receiving corps, no one has the size or speed to replace current New Orleans Saints wideout A.T. Perry. The offensive line is also a question mark for head coach Dave Clawson, who must replace three starters including Second Team All-ACC right guard Sean Maginn. To beat his total, Griffs would need to average 259 yards per game; that feels like too much to ask of Griffs with so much inexperience around him.
Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke over 23.5 touchdowns (-120): The 2022 season was one of the worst in the last four decades for the Miami Hurricanes. The offense was abysmal under Josh Gattis’ play-calling, averaging only 19.4 points per game (114th nationally) and 6.7 yards per pass (91st nationally). Despite entering the year with preseason Heisman buzz, Tyler Van Dyke regressed by almost every metric. He finished 81st in the FBS in QBR and only threw for 10 touchdowns after tossing 26 in 2021.
I’m betting that last year was the anomaly under a scheme that was always doomed to fail. New offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson’s air raid approach will fit much better with Van Dyke’s arm talent. Miami should have a healthier and faster group of receivers this year led by Xavier Restrepo and Colbie Young. This is a make-or-break season for Van Dyke, and I think he is poised for a major bounce back.
Clemson running back Will Shipley over 950.5 rushing yards (-115): Shipley finished the 2022 regular season with 186 carries and 1,092 rushing yards (5.9 yards per carry). He’s one of the most experienced returning skill players on Clemson with the ability to catch passes and play all three downs. Though Phil Mafah might be used as a change-of-pace back in short yardage situations, Shipley is in line for the lion’s share of backfield snaps.
The question for this wager is whether the air raid principles preferred by new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley will drive down the number of total rushing opportunities Shipley should expect. After analyzing Riley’s play-calling the last three years, I am not concerned:
- 2020 at SMU: 37.7 rushes, 37.6 passes per game
- 2021 at SMU: 35.1 rushes, 38.8 passes per game
- 2022 at TCU: 37.7 rushes, 30.3 passes per game
If you give Shipley a modest 15 carries per game at his average from last season, that equates to 1,062 yards. If he stays healthy, he will hit the over.
Heisman Trophy Preview
The Heisman Trophy is presented to college football’s most outstanding player. It is also one of the longest running and most popular prop bets available at sportsbooks. As I analyzed last year, the journalists who select the winner tend to follow predictable patterns with their voting. This can help you winnow the field of prospective bets.
It’s no surprise that last year’s winner, USC quarterback Caleb Williams, is the preseason Vegas favorite to repeat (+500). Williams plays for a dominant offense on a national contender that also happens to play in one of the nation’s top television markets. 19 of the last 23 awards have gone to quarterbacks. What’s not to like? Though Williams checks many of the boxes and is poised for another outstanding season, he would have to overcome several historical trends to repeat. No one has won the Heisman twice since Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. Additionally, only one preseason favorite has won the award since 2010.
In sum, Heisman voters like to spread the wealth around and it can be difficult to meet everyone’s expectations when starting at the top. So where is the value in 2023? Here are the four players that I think have the best value:
LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels (+1100): I placed a bet on Daniels at +1700 about a month ago. His stock has steadily risen as bettors have started to pay attention to the season. He can break down defenses with his arm or his legs. There’s still room for growth, even after a season where he threw for 17 touchdown passes and ran for another 11. He was also extremely accurate, completing 68.6 percent of his passes and only throwing 3 interceptions. LSU is a legitimate College Football Playoff contender and Heisman voters love a winner. If he can lead the Tigers out of the SEC West, he will be well-positioned for an invite to New York City.
Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis (+1300): Travis checks many of the same boxes as Daniels does. He ranked 7th in QBR last season, throwing for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. He can escape the pocket and turn a possible sack into an electric offensive play. As part of his 417 rushing yards last season, he produced rushes of over 20 yards in six different games. Whoever wins the high-profile opener between Florida State and LSU will be in a great position to challenge Caleb Williams for the Heisman.
Clemson QB Cade Klubnik (+1400): Klubnik is going to get a lot of opportunities to show off his five-star pedigree in Garrett Riley’s offense. Though he doesn’t have as many starts as Daniels or Travis, Klubnik has impressed in the games he has played including a dominant performance in the 2022 ACC Championship. If Clemson is in the mix for the College Football Playoff at the end of the season, you have to think Klubnik will be a strong candidate to take home the trophy. He may get bonus points from voters if it appears he has “fixed” the Clemson offense after a couple years of mediocre play.
Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (+2200): If you are looking for a non-quarterback to diversify your portfolio, I recommend the talented Buckeye receiver. In 2022, he became Ohio State’s first unanimous All-American wideout. Additionally, his 1,263 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns rank fourth in program history for a single season. No matter how the quarterback situation shakes out in Columbus, you can expect Harrison to be in consideration for a lot of hardware at season’s end.
Next Thursday, I’ll have a full breakdown of best bets for Week 1 games. College football is back!
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
