Every Thursday during the fall, SabreBetrics explores college football from an analytical sports betting perspective. So far this preseason, I have made predictions on which teams will go over and under their projected win totals. This time, I am previewing the conference bets you can make to diversify your gambling portfolio.
Not to toot my own horn, but this specific column was wildly successful last season, correctly predicting the following champions:
- Utah to win the Pac-12 (+240)
- Fresno State to win the Mountain West (+240)
- Toledo to win the MAC (+380)
- Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+1200)
As I outlined last year, the challenge of betting on conferences is not just figuring out which team is best. You also need to find value: teams that have a greater likelihood of success than is suggested by the odds.
For example, Georgia is a significant favorite to win the SEC East. This makes sense given that the Bulldogs have won back-to-back National Championships and have not lost a regular season game since November 2020. However, there is no value in placing this bet at -500 odds – meaning you would need to wager $500 to win only $100 back – even though there’s a very real chance it will occur.
Here are my best “value plays” for the 2023 season:
ACC
- Clemson to win the championship (+120)
- Miami to make the championship game (+800)
It feels like Clemson has been down the last couple years because the Tigers have not competed for the College Football Playoff. In reality, Dabo Swinney’s program has compiled back-to-back double-digit win seasons and is the defending conference champions. Clemson has won seven of the last eight ACC titles and is a slight betting favorite over the buzzier Florida State.
I’ll stick with the program with a track record of success. The defense that allowed only 3.2 yards per rushing play (7th nationally in 2022) returns eight starters. The offense should also be improved with new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley at the helm and highly touted quarterback Cade Klubnik firmly entrenched as the full-time starter. It’s almost a given that Clemson will be in the ACC Championship Game; here’s an opportunity to get them at plus money to win it.
I’m also putting a few dollars on Miami as a darkhorse candidate to make the title game. Despite the talent Mario Cristobal was able to assemble in first year at “The U”, the Hurricanes were a disaster on offense and allowed a shocking number of explosive plays on defense. I think there’s a decent chance Miami bounces back in year two. With two new coordinators, 19 starters returning, and a bunch of impact transfers entering the program, Miami will be one of the most improved teams in the conference this year.
SEC
- LSU to win the championship (+475)
Despite an ignominious start to his career in Baton Rouge, Brian Kelly surprised many by getting his Tigers to the SEC Championship. This year’s team should be better on both sides of the ball with 15 returning starters and a legitimate Heisman contender in Jayden Daniels under center. LSU has the talent to compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
So why the long odds to win the conference? The biggest obstacle is beating out Alabama in the SEC West with a head-to-head match-up in Tuscaloosa scheduled for early November. Despite having elite talent, Nick Saban’s roster still has a lot of questions (particularly at quarterback) after massive roster turnover. If LSU can make it to the SEC Championship game, they can compete with Georgia. Even with the recruiting machine Kirby Smart has assembled in Athens, the Bulldogs must replace 10 NFL Draft picks and one of the best offensive coordinators in the game in Todd Monken. With the SEC setting up as a three-team race, I’ll take my chances on the team with the most stable quarterback situation and the biggest payout.
Big Ten
- Wisconsin to win Big Ten West (+125)
The Big Ten East will be one of the most fascinating divisions in college football this year. Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State each have the talent to win the conference and punch a ticket to the College Football Playoff. It’s also possible they beat each other up and ruin the conference’s chances of having anyone in the playoff at all. With all that calamity going on, I’ll focus my betting attention on the less glamorous Big Ten West.
I love what the Badgers have done this offseason, bringing in Luke Fickell from Cincinnati and Phil Longo from UNC. The offense figures to be one of the best in Wisconsin’s recent history. In total 10 starters return, including running back Braelon Allen who has back-to-back seasons with more than 1,200 rushing yards. SMU transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai provides a massive upgrade at the game’s most important position. The defense will continue to be elite, returning eight starters from a unit that ranked second nationally in rushing yards allowed per play. The schedule also sets up well for Wisconsin by avoiding Michigan and Penn State and getting Iowa, the second best team in the Big Ten West, at home.
Pac-12
- USC to win the championship (+210)
Lincoln Riley’s teams rarely have issues on offense. The 2022 Trojans averaged 41.4 points and 506.7 yards per game last season. It is no surprise that the driving force behind this offensive unit, Caleb Williams, coasted to the Heisman Trophy. With Williams returning and surrounded by talented skill players, USC will be an unstoppable offensive force again.
The biggest question about Riley is whether he can field an above average defense. In six seasons as a head coach, Riley’s teams have allowed 40 points an astonishing 18 times. However, I see reason for optimism with this year’s team under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. High-impact transfers Bear Alexander (Georgia), Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State), Kyon Barrs (Arizona), and Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M) will provide depth to a team that already returns most starters from last season.
From a schedule perspective, home games against Washington, Utah, and UCLA and avoiding Oregon State entirely should set the team up for a return to the Pac-12 title game. If Williams had not injured his leg in last year’s game against Utah, the Trojans would have likely won the championship last year and made it into the College Football Playoff. This team will be highly motivated to right those wrongs.
Big 12
- Texas to win the championship (-105)
- Oklahoma State to make the championship game (+1600)
It has been over 5,000 days since the Longhorns last won the Big 12 title and this is their last chance with a move to the SEC coming in 2024. No program has underachieved with highly rated talent quite like Texas has. In two seasons in Austin, Steve Sarkisian only has a 13-12 overall record.
However, there are a lot of reasons to be bullish about Texas finally living up to expectations. Virtually everyone is back on the offensive side of the ball except for running back Bijan Robinson. Quarterback Quinn Ewers played well in his freshman season, leading an offense that averaged 34.5 points per game and was elite in protecting the football. The defense made huge strides under coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, finishing as a Top 25 unit after a horrendous season in 2021. The Horns also fell victim to four one-score losses, including a one point loss to Alabama, which dramatically changed how the season was viewed. Admittedly, there is not as much of a payoff in betting on Texas compared to other conference favorites. Still, I’m comfortable with the risk given how talented and deep this roster is.
If you read my overs preview two weeks ago, you will know that I am very high on Oklahoma State relative to Vegas expectations. The Cowboys’ schedule sets up well to make a run at conference contention, avoiding Texas, TCU, and Baylor. Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma are all home games. Quarterback Alan Bowman has had a circuitous career through Lubbock and Ann Arbor, but he has the arm talent to be one of the best players in the conference if he can stay healthy. Odds of +1600 imply a probability of 5.88%, and that is simply too low for a program that has not had a losing record in 18 years.
Mountain West
- Air Force to make championship game (+190)
Air Force is another of my preseason overs. The Falcons join Fresno State and Boise State as the three teams most likely to contend for a conference title. The Bulldogs have the most roster turnover and will sorely miss Saints back-up quarterback Jake Haener. Boise State is solid on both sides of the ball, but must travel to San Diego State, Memphis, and Fresno State for difficult road tests.
Air Force has the best defense of the three with an offense that led the nation in time of possession in 2022. As of right now, Troy Calhoun’s squad is projected to be favored in 11 of 12 games this season. At plus money, I think there’s value in the Air Force finishing in the top two of the standings.
MAC
- Toledo to win the MAC West (-130)
The 2022 MAC champions are poised to make a repeat trip to Detroit. Toledo returns seven players who received all-conference honors; no other team in MAC has more than three such players returning. Analyst Kelley Ford ranks the Rockets’ schedule as the third easiest in the country, with the most difficult conference games projected to be home contests against Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan. There’s a strong possibility that Toledo will be in the conversation for a New Year’s Day bowl bid, especially if they can upset Illinois in Week 1.
Next week, the article will explore individual prop bets for the season and identify the players who will contend for the Heisman Trophy.
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
