Welcome to year three of SabreBetrics, a weekly column on college football betting.
Each week in the fall, I provide analytical gambling advice based on years of experience as a sports bettor. If you are already an experienced gambler, my goal is to provide you with something to think about as you prepare your weekly bets. However, I also want these articles to be accessible to those of you who enjoy college football but have no interest in wagering. To those readers, you can treat this column as a preview of the week or season to come.
First, allow me to reintroduce myself to those who may be reading for the first time. My name is Michael. I’m an alum of UVA. I am a long-time reader of The Sabre, creator of the Preferred Walk-Ons Podcast, and a staunch defender of Dante Harris (even though he has yet to play a single minute for Tony Bennett). I will put my Cavaliers’ fandom up against anyone on this site, so even though I will do a Virginia preview each week, I never bet for or against the Hoos.
All opinions expressed in these columns are mine alone, and do not represent The Sabre. The decision to follow my lead is entirely up to you. Most importantly, I view betting as a fun supplement to my sports watching experience. Gambling should not be stressful or put your future at risk. My advice is to only bet what you can afford to lose.
With this fine print out of the way, let’s talk football! We are just over three weeks away from the start of the 2023 season. Most sportsbooks have released “Season Win Total” lines, providing opportunities for the public to wager on how many regular season wins each FBS team will have. As I have noted in the past, these are some of my favorite bets to make each season. From a fan perspective, it gives you an opportunity to root for or against teams you would not normally follow. This adds bonus fun to your Saturdays regardless of how Virginia fares.
However, there can also be a lot of value in these bets, as sportsbooks generally don’t make much of a profit on win totals. The primary goal is to get bettors in the door for other wagers where advanced algorithms for individual games give sportsbooks an advantage. Last year, this column was 4-1-1 with Season Overs bets. In 2021, I was 6-3-1 with all season win total bets.
The widespread nature of the transfer portal has certainly made it more difficult to predict how teams will do from one season to the next. Consider the case of Colorado, one of the buzziest teams of the offseason. Coach Deion Sanders has made sweeping changes to the 1-11 program he inherited, bringing in more than 50 new players between the transfer portal and high school recruits. Though the Buffaloes seem destined to improve dramatically in the next couple years, it is difficult to predict how this program will look this season (Vegas has the expected win total set at 3.5 currently).
When looking for candidates of teams that might beat their expected win totals, I consider these metrics:
- Number of returning starters, including transfers with starting experience
- Projected strength of schedule
- Number of close losses in the previous season
- Continuity of coaching staff, including coordinators
- Turnover differential in the previous season, as many turnovers are the product of luck and balance out over time
With these factors in mind, I’ve identified seven teams that have a good opportunity to exceed their preseason expectations. Note: Win totals and vigs will vary between different sportsbooks.
Wisconsin over 8.5 wins (-140): Wisconsin had one of the best offseasons of any Power 5 program. The Badgers hired one of the nation’s best young coaches in Luke Fickell, who amassed a 53-10 record (not to mention a trip to the College Football Playoff) in the last five years at Cincinnati. Fickell then poached UNC’s offensive coordinator Phil Longo, the “air raid” architect who helped quarterbacks Sam Howell and Drake Maye put up video game numbers against ACC competition. He will now get the opportunity to work with Tanner Mordecai, an experienced transfer from SMU, who has thrown for 7,152 yards and 72 touchdowns the last two seasons. If Longo chooses to give Mordecai’s arm a break, he can simply hand the ball to Braelon Allen, a workhorse back who has back-to-back 1,200+ yard rushing seasons. Wisconsin’s schedule sets them up for a legitimate run at contending for the Big 10 title by avoiding Penn State and Michigan while hosting Ohio State in late October. This new offensive style might be jarring for some after years of watching the “ground-and-pound” style preferred by Barry Alvarez, Bret Bielema, and Paul Chryst. Fans in Madison will make the adjustment pretty quickly as the wins pile up over Big 10 rivals.
Air Force over 8.5 wins (-110): Troy Calhoun has found a winning formula in Colorado Springs – assemble a solid defense and run the ball more times than anyone else in the country. In 2022, Air Force led the nation in rush play percentage (88.7%) and rushing yards per game (310.1). The reliance on the ground game should help in replacing three-year starting quarterback Haaziq Daniels, one of the winningest players in the academy’s history. Despite question marks on offense, the Falcons’ defense should be one of the best in the Mountain West. Eight defensive starters return from a team that ranked 12th nationally in yards allowed per play. This unit also ranked first in points and yards allowed per game, as the triple-option offense severely limited the number of possessions in the game. Air Force will likely be favored in 11 of 12 games on the schedule, with the lone exception being a road trip to Boise in late November. That game may determine which team gets an invite to the MWC Championship.
Oklahoma State over 6.5 wins (-110): It was a tale of two seasons for Mike Gundy in his 19th year in Stillwater. The Pokes started 6-1, with the only loss being an overtime defeat at TCU. Then quarterback Spencer Sanders injured his shoulder in a 48-0 loss at Kansas State and the team never recovered. With Sanders now at Ole Miss, Gundy will likely turn to transfer Alan Bowman as his primary QB. Bowman had a breakout season as a freshman at Texas Tech in 2018, started two injury-marred seasons in 2019 and 2020, then transferred to Michigan where he sat behind Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy. If Bowman can stay healthy, he will provide a significant upgrade to the back-up quarterbacks that struggled down the stretch for Oklahoma State. My primary reason for optimism though comes from the schedule. The Cowboys avoid TCU, Texas, and Baylor and play six teams that were not in Power 5 conferences last year. Mike Gundy has not had a losing record since his first year as head coach in 2005, and the ease of the schedule suggests that he will be in position to easily match last year’s regular season win total (7). This is one of my favorite preseason plays on the board.
Appalachian State over 6.5 wins (-135): The coaches and players have changed, but Appalachian State has been a model of consistency for decades. The program has only three losing seasons since 1983. Since joining the Sun Belt in 2014, only five FBS programs have more wins than Appalachian State: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Boone also provides one of the toughest homefield environments in the country; the Mountaineers are 48-10 as an FBS program at Kidd Brewer Stadium. 2022 was admittedly a weird year for head coach Shawn Clark. After nearly upsetting North Carolina in a thrilling 63-61 loss, Appalachian State traveled to College Station the following week and beat Texas A&M. However, one score losses to James Madison, Marshall, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern dulled the September excitement. Look for Clark to rely heavily on running back Nate Noel Jr. who averaged 6.9 yards per carry, and for the Mountaineers to reverse some of the bad luck of so many close losses.
NC State over 6.5 wins (-145): Much has been written about offensive coordinator Robert Anae and quarterback Brennan Armstrong reuniting in Raleigh after producing record-breaking statistics for Virginia in 2021. Neither had successful campaigns in 2022 while separated. Anae’s offense at Syracuse ranked 77th in points per game and 91st in yards per game. Armstrong finished the year with more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (7) and a QBR rated outside the top 100 in the nation. It seems unlikely that these two can recapture the magic of the 2021 season, but one thing is certain: the Wolfpack cannot be worse offensively than they were in 2022. It is a testament to Dave Doeren’s defense that he was able to put together an eight-win season with an offense that ranked near the bottom of the FBS by most metrics. Though the secondary and linebacking corps will be inexperienced, it seems unlikely that a Doeren-coached team will completely unravel defensively. Though the schedule is difficult, all of NC State’s toughest games (Notre Dame, Louisville, Clemson, Miami, and UNC) are at home. If the Pack can find a way to win two of these difficult games, they will be in good shape to clear this line.
Kansas over 6 wins (-125): After a surprising 6-7 record in his second year in Lawrence, Lance Leipold has significantly raised the floor for Kansas football. Leipold has a history of building a winning culture: at Wisconsin-Whitewater, he amassed an overall record of 109-6, reaching 100 wins faster than any football coach in NCAA history. That record stands in stark contrast to a KU program that had won only 21 games in the previous 11 years before Leipold’s arrival. The Jayhawks have a lot of returning production back this season, including quarterback Jalon Daniels who emerged as a darkhorse Heisman candidate before losing several games to injury. The defense, which was awful last season, should be significantly improved with seven returning starters and transfers Damarius McGhee (LSU) and Dylan Brooks (Auburn) immediately competing for playing time. Many pundits expect Kansas to regress this season, but I am willing to take a chance on Leipold as a proven winner.
Charlotte over 3 wins (-130): Perhaps I am just influenced by Biff Poggi’s impassioned AAC Media Day appearance, but I believe the 49ers have something to prove in 2023. The roster has been completely reshaped via recruiting and the transfer portal, with more than 50 new faces in the locker room. Scanning the list of transfers, you notice a wealth of three-star talent from major programs such as Maryland and Michigan (where Poggi served as an associate coach under Jim Harbaugh). This won’t make Charlotte an instant contender, but it should significantly upgrade the talent that is on the depth chart. The schedule opens with a likely win against South Carolina State, and Charlotte avoids having to play AAC favorites UTSA and Tulane. I have long been a fan of betting on teams at the bottom of the win total board to overachieve; even terrible teams luck their way into four wins given the parity of college football.
Next week, we will explore teams that are likely to underperform their expected win totals.
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
