Preseason Betting Guide – Season Unders

Every Thursday during the fall, SabreBetrics explores college football from an analytical sports betting perspective. Last week, I offered seven teams that have a good opportunity to beat their expected Vegas win totals for the season. This week, I am analyzing teams that will have a difficult time living up to oddsmakers’ expectations.

As I have explained before, there are a few metrics that can lead to a team underperforming:

1. A difficult strength of schedule, particularly with true road games
2. A lack of quality roster depth
3. Positive “luck factors” from the previous season, such as turnover margin and the number of close victories
4. Roster or coaching turnover

Of course, Vegas oddsmakers have access to this information as well and incorporate these factors into their algorithms. The key then is to find value which is not always easy to quantify. This year, I used these additional organizing principles to guide my decision-making:

1. Avoid getting caught up in preseason “buzz.” When the sports’ punditry fixates on a team, it inflates the value in the betting market.
2. Fade teams that have major flaws on one side of the ball. A dynamite offense may make for a fun viewing experience, but it will ultimately result in fewer wins if the defense is not competent.
3. Remember that upsets happen more frequently than you think. It can be tempting to look at a schedule and see likely wins based on expected lines. However, underdogs won outright approximately 26% of the time in 2022.

Taking these considerations together, I have identified seven college football teams that you can bet as “unders” for the 2022 season. Note: The win total and vig vary between different sportsbooks.

Georgia under 11.5 wins (-135): Betting against Kirby Smart and Georgia takes courage. In addition to being the back-to-back National Champions, the Bulldogs have not lost a regular season football game since Nov. 7, 2020. However, to win this bet, you simply need one team to pull an upset during the regular season. A November trip to Knoxville seems like the most obvious candidate for a defeat, but the Bulldogs will also need to navigate tricky home games against South Carolina, Kentucky, and Mississippi, and a road trip to Auburn. Though Georgia still has enviable talent on its roster, it will be replacing 10 players who were selected in the 2023 NFL Draft including veteran quarterback Stetson Bennett. They also will be replacing coordinator Todd Monken, the architect of an offense that averaged 41.6 points per game in 2022. There’s no doubt that Smart has one of the best teams in the country, and it would surprise no one if he wins a third consecutive title. Still, I will take my chances that someone finally trips up Georgia this year.

Florida State under 10 wins (-140): Even without a statistical analysis, I would be willing to bet against FSU as karmic retribution for loudly complaining about deserving a better deal from the ACC. While the Seminoles are undoubtedly one of the most talented teams in the conference, I think it is unlikely they get to 11 wins. This would require Florida State to only lose one game with a schedule that features games against LSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Pitt, and Florida all outside the friendly confines of Doak Campbell Stadium. Duke and Miami will offer tricky home challenges as well. Dual-threat quarterback Jordan Travis is an elite rusher, but the reliance on his legs also makes him more susceptible to injury. Travis played hurt at various times last season, powering through two different leg injuries suffered against LSU and Louisville. Head coach Mike Norvell has the Seminoles back on the national map and it seems likely that his program will be competing for an ACC Championship in December. Still, I think it is more likely that the Seminoles have 9 or fewer wins than 11 or more.

Texas Tech under 7.5 wins (-130): There is reason for optimism in Lubbock in head coach Joey McGuire’s second season. The Red Raiders finished with a 7-5 regular season record and return almost everyone on an offensive unit that gained 449 yards per game. However, there are also reasons to be skeptical that McGuire can improve upon his win total in 2023. For one, the defense was as terrible as the offense was explosive; opposing teams averaged 440 yards per game (109th nationally) and 30.8 points per game (97th). Additionally, three of Tech’s seven wins last season were home overtime victories. Usually, a reliance on winning close results in regression the next year. Expected starting quarterback Tyler Shough has shown flashes of brilliance in two seasons at Texas Tech, but he has struggled to stay on the field. Out of 26 possible games, Shough has only started 11 because of significant injuries. The schedule will be difficult to maneuver as well, with road contests against Baylor, BYU, Kansas, and Texas, and home matchups against Kansas State, TCU, and Oregon. Many pundits have flagged Texas Tech as a potential breakout team (like last year’s version of TCU), but I am not convinced.

Nebraska under 6.5 wins (-140): Matt Rhule has a reputation for program-building. At Temple, he transformed one of the most talent-deficient programs in the FBS to back-to-back 10-win seasons. At Baylor, he turned around a program mired in scandal and led the Bears to an 11-1 regular season record in his third year. However, both rebuilds took a couple years to produce results. In his first year at Temple, Rhule won only two games; at Baylor, he went 1-11. The transfer portal could speed up the process, but there’s still a talent disparity for a program that finished 4-8 under Scott Frost in 2022. The schedule will make it difficult for the Huskers to get to seven wins. Nebraska has difficult road games at Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, while also hosting Michigan, Maryland, and Iowa. The future looks brighter with Rhule at the helm, but there is no “quick fix” for the systemic problems in Lincoln.

Wake Forest under 6.5 wins (-130): No coach gets more from less than Dave Clawson. Despite recruiting classes that are consistently ranked below fellow ACC competition, Clawson has taken Wake Forest to bowl games in seven consecutive seasons. Still, this must be viewed by any objective observer as a rebuilding season for the Demon Deacons. Only 11 starters return to Winston-Salem, and the team must replace its two most important offensive players: quarterback Sam Hartman (transfer to Notre Dame) and wideout A.T. Perry (drafted by the New Orleans Saints). Expected starting quarterback Mitch Griffis has only one career start in his career and attempted 41 passes in 2022. After opening the season with four winnable games, the remainder of the schedule turns brutal. Wake must play Clemson, Virginia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame, and Syracuse on the road, while hosting Pittsburgh, Florida State, and NC State. The floor is considerably higher than many thought possible in Winston-Salem and it’s conceivable that Wake Forest could sneak into bowl eligibility, but it will be very difficult for Clawson to match the 2022 regular season win total given all he has lost.

Navy under 6.5 wins (-140): When head coach Ken Niumatalolo was unceremoniously relieved of his duties after 15 seasons, it became clear that Navy would be looking to change course. The defense probably won’t shift too dramatically, as coordinator Brian Newberry was promoted to his first ever head coaching position. The offensive direction is less clear. Grant Chesnut, the longtime coordinator of Kennesaw State, takes over the reins of an offense that ranked 110th in yards gained per play. Though very familiar with the triple option, Chesnut has also incorporated more passing and zone-read concepts than Navy is used to. This might lead to some initial growing pains as the offensive system evolves. The Midshipmen have struggled at home in recent years, putting up a 4-12 record the last three seasons. Road and neutral games will also be difficult, as Navy opens the season in Ireland against Notre Dame, travels to Memphis and SMU, and plays Army in Foxborough. Newberry might be able to improve upon last year’s four-win season, but getting to seven wins will be a tall task.

Arizona under 5 wins (-120): The Big 12 is known for football programs that score lots of points on offense but struggle to stop anyone defensively. Arizona will fit right in. The Wildcats were atrocious on defense in 2022, ranking 125th nationally in points and yards allowed per game and opposing conversion rate on third down. Perhaps it is a blessing that only three starters from last year’s team are returning. The offense, led by quarterback Jayden de Laura, was considerably better, averaging nearly 31 points per game. However, when you look beyond the counting statistics, there are troubling signs of inefficiency. Arizona ranked 10th nationally in percentage of passing plays called per game (59%) but ranked only 65th in completion percentage (61%). De Laura ranked 50th in QBR at 65.0 and threw 13 interceptions. With a schedule that includes road games at Mississippi State, USC, Washington State, and home games versus Washington, Oregon State, UCLA, and Utah, Arizona will need to be flawless on offense to have a chance at bowl eligibility.

Next week, I will outline best bets for each major conference.

SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.