College Football Predictions: No Road Fears, But Watch Out Iowa

Sometimes the early weeks of the college football season are uneventful except for a couple interesting matchups. However, the opening weekend of the 2023 season was filled with intrigue and surprising outcomes.

Deion Sanders and Colorado fired a Ralphie-sized shot across the bow of the entire college football landscape with an upset victory against TCU. Dominant second half performances from Jordan Travis and Keon Coleman propelled Florida State past No. 5 LSU. Untimely turnovers from No. 9 Clemson resulted in an embarrassing three touchdown defeat against unranked Duke. It was the perfect weekend to get fans animated about the coming season.

Unfortunately, the calamity also resulted in a subpar betting week for this column. There was some bad luck along the way, and I could have done without Dabo Swinney’s team fumbling multiple times inside the red zone, but that’s all part of the fun of the gambling experience. I still did better than some national pundits. Having watched extra film this week, I feel more confident and prepared with my picks. As you will see below, I have prioritized road teams that have the skill to persevere in hostile environments.

Virginia Predictions Week 2

• Record To Date: 1-0 on spread, 0-1 on over/unders

James Madison -6 at Virginia, Under 41.

Virginia’s performance against Tennessee seems to have divided the fan base over how optimistic to be about the remainder of the season. On the one hand, the offensive line was completely overmatched, conceding 4 sacks, 11 tackles for a loss, and 5 deflected passes. Quarterback Tony Muskett never looked comfortable in the pocket and rarely had time to read through his progressions. This pressure also resulted in an injury that leaves his status for Saturday’s game in doubt.

However, there were some positive signs from the Hoos as well. Virginia did not surrender a turnover and was only penalized twice for 10 yards. The defense managed to get stops in the first half before finally relenting to the Volunteers’ high-octane offense. Taken as a whole, it is about what you would expect from a rebuilding team playing a road game against an elite opponent.

This weekend’s game against James Madison will provide a much clearer picture of what to expect from the rest of the season. Under the Curt Cignetti regime, the Dukes have been consistently good and successfully transitioned from being an FCS powerhouse to a dangerous Sun Belt Conference opponent. This year’s team does not have the same level of talent or experience as the roster that broke into the Top 25 ranks in the first year as an FBS program, but given the regional importance of this game, Virginia fans should expect the Dukes’ best shot.

If you only saw the final score of JMU’s 38-3 victory over Bucknell, you missed out on a shaky start to the season. The Dukes were outgained in the first half and benched starting quarterback Alonza Barnett after he completed only 3 passes. Making the move to Jordan McCloud, who will start against Virginia, energized James Madison’s offense. With stints at South Florida and Arizona under his belt, McCloud has the experience and athleticism to compete against the Cavalier defense. Along with running back Kaelon Black – who rushed for 125 yards on 12 carries – McCloud will test Virginia’s front seven with his ability to escape the pocket. After watching Tennessee rush for 287 total yards and 5.5 yards per carry, I am concerned about this matchup.

Outside of the stats, this game will be an incredibly emotional one for everyone in the Virginia locker room. The game will include a ceremony to honor the three slain Cavalier players who were killed tragically at the end of the 2022 season. This whirlwind of emotion can inspire a team to perform beyond its normal capabilities, but it can also be difficult to sustain throughout a long football game. Nothing would make me happier than to see a packed Scott Stadium defeat an in-state rival to celebrate all that the program has endured in recent months. Still, it is difficult to pick Virginia here, especially given the uncertainty at quarterback. Dukes over the Hoos, 24-13.

Important note for this section: As a Virginia alum and regular reader of The Sabre, I love talking about the Cavaliers. However, I never bet for or against Virginia in my personal portfolio.

Week 2 Best Bet Predictions

• Season Record: 1-4

Notre Dame -7 at NC State: Brennan Armstrong had an effective but muted performance in his first game in red and white. Instead of the gunslinging mentality Virginia fans were accustomed to seeing in Charlottesville, Armstrong looked more like a steady game-manager. The result was a mistake-free but underwhelming performance against a middling Connecticut squad. While Armstrong may still be adjusting to his new role in Raleigh, quarterback Sam Hartman looks incredibly comfortable as the starter for Notre Dame. Through two games, Hartman has averaged 11.1 yards per completion and has completed 82.5% of his passes. His 97.1 QBR ranks second among all FBS players. The Fighting Irish have been equally impressive on defense. Though Navy and Tennessee State are not the most fearsome opponents, this is the first time since 1975 that Notre Dame has not allowed a touchdown in its first two games. Though NC State has the defensive playmakers to keep this game close, I think Hartman helps the Domers pull away in the second half.

Cincinnati +7.5 at Pittsburgh: This game doesn’t have the prestige of some of Saturday’s contests, but it should be one of the most competitive games involving an ACC team. Cincy wideout Xzavier Henderson had the highest Week 1 grade from Pro Football Focus after making 7 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown. There is a clear rapport between Henderson and former Florida teammate Emory Jones. Jones debuted with a nearly flawless performance against Eastern Kentucky, throwing for 345 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions. This duo will be a difficult challenge for a Pittsburgh defense that returns only five starters from 2022 and has replaced both safeties. Expect a close game throughout that could go either way.

Oregon -6.5 at Texas Tech: Given the performances of these two teams in the opening week, I expected this line to be double digits. The Ducks put up 81 points against Portland State, accruing 729 total yards and 37 first downs. In contrast, the Red Raiders returned to Lubbock after a demoralizing double overtime loss at Wyoming. Playing on the road against an established Big 12 opponent will clearly be more of a challenge for Oregon, but I still think they have a significant talent advantage. Texas Tech’s defensive line struggled against the Cowboys’ run game, allowing nearly 4 yards per rushing attempt. Oregon has several explosive backs that can capitalize on missed gap assignments. Bucky Irving only needed 4 carries to run for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Vikings. This figures to be a high-scoring affair and the Ducks will run away with it in the second half.

UCF -3.5 at Boise State: No defensive unit in the FBS will face a tougher challenge in the opening two weeks than Boise State. After conceding 490 passing yards to Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington Huskies, the Broncos must prepare for a team that gained 723 total yards in a dominant 56-6 win over Kent State. After three seasons at Ole Miss, quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has finally landed in an ideal place for his offensive skill set. He gained 371 all-purpose yards and was responsible for 4 touchdowns in the season opener. Gus Malzahn is known for putting together dynamic offenses, but he also has enough talent on defense to be dangerous in the Big 12. With seven returning starters on defense (compared to five for Boise), the Knights are better positioned to win this early season matchup.

Oklahoma State -3.5 at Arizona State: Everyone expected Arizona State to struggle in Kenny Dillingham’s first year as head coach. The Sun Devils avoided disaster in the opening week by eking out a narrow victory against Southern Utah. With 32 transfers in the program and a true freshman starting quarterback in Jaden Rashada, it was always going to take some time. However, this game exposed how far away ASU is from national relevance. Oklahoma State is also a work in progress, but Mike Gundy is starting from a higher floor. The Cowboys have a 13-3 record historically against Pac-12 opponents and have gone 10-6 against the spread in these games.

Upset Special

• Record to date: 1-0

Iowa State ML vs. Iowa (+165): In recent years, the “Battle for the CyHawk Trophy” has been a bruising defensive battle. Five of the last six meetings have gone under the expected points total including last season’s 10-7 Iowa State victory. Iowa’s offensive struggles under Brian Ferentz have been well-documented, but things seemed destined for improvement in 2023 with Michigan transfer quarterback Cade McNamara at the helm. However, in the opening game against Utah State, the Hawkeyes could only muster 88 rushing yards and were outpaced in every offensive category. If not for several untimely Aggies penalties, Iowa might have lost the game. I don’t think Matt Campbell and Iowa State have much talent on offense either, but I give the edge to the home team in a low-scoring rivalry game.

Random Fact To Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters

Though Colorado has rightly received media attention for its statement victory at TCU, the Buffaloes were not the biggest upset of the Week 1 slate. That honor belongs to Texas State who won at Baylor as a 27.5-point underdog. Led by an exceptional performance from Auburn transfer quarterback TJ Finley, the Bobcats won their first ever game against a Power 5 opponent. It is the biggest FBS upset by spread in two years. In 2021, Kansas won in Austin despite being a 30.5-point underdog against the Texas Longhorns. It just goes to show that anything is possible in college football!

SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.