Our year-long nightmare is over! The Virginia football team has its first win of the 2023 season. That will make predictions more fun this week.
It was not a pretty victory, nor was it against the most high-profile opponent. Still, it was an important victory for a fanbase in desperate need of a positive moment and the players who worked tirelessly through unimaginable adversity. The schedule going forward is perilous to say the least, with three road trips looming against ranked opponents. But for now, we get a little extra time to savor the victory over our in-state rivals.
Cavalier fans can relax and enjoy a stress-free weekend of football. Here are a few of the games I’ll be keeping my eye on while the Hoos are on a bye.
Week 7 Best Bet Predictions
- Season record: 15-17.
The .500 mark is within reach this week. Time to channel my inner Kate Bush and finish “running up that hill” by featuring the three games where both teams are ranked.
Florida State -17 vs. Syracuse: The Orange started the season 4-0, but things have fallen back to earth since the beginning of the conference schedule. Back-to-back losses against Clemson and North Carolina have demonstrated that Dino Babers’ squad does not have the depth to compete against the ACC’s top teams. If you don’t believe me, hear it from Babers himself at Monday’s press conference.
I’m not an expert on motivation but highlighting how your team has no depth ahead of its toughest road challenge does not seem like a winning formula. Florida State has football’s sixth rated scoring offense, averaging 42.4 points per game. The Seminoles are one of seven FBS to score points on every trip into the red zone this season. Jordan Travis, Johnny Wilson, and Keon Coleman should feast against a Syracuse defense that ranks 84th nationally in average passing defense.
Kansas -3 at Oklahoma State: Despite an upset win over Kansas State last Friday, Mike Gundy’s team has underwhelmed in the first half of the season. The offense has yet to find any consistency with any of the three quarterbacks that have received playing time. Even though Oklahoma State relies heavily on the passing game, the offense ranks 126th in passing efficiency and 110th in completion percentage.
In contrast, Kansas’s offense has been a well-oiled machine. Even with talented quarterback Jalon Daniels sidelined by injury, the Jayhawks managed to score 51 points and post 399 rushing yards against a talented Central Florida team. Between star running backs Devin Neal and Daniel Henshaw Jr., Kansas ranks sixth in rushing yards per game, averaging nearly 6.0 yards per carry. Unfortunately for the Pokes, they have struggled to stop the ground game this season, conceding an average of 154 yards each game. Call this a hedge against one of my preseason over picks, but I just haven’t liked what I have seen out of Stillwater through six weeks.
USC +3 at Notre Dame: This rivalry game features two teams that have struggled in different ways the last couple weeks. After pulling out an improbable win at Duke, Notre Dame saw its 30-game regular season winning streak over the ACC end with a loss at Louisville. Against the Cardinals, quarterback Sam Hartman was under siege the entire game, leading to 5 sacks and 3 interceptions. The last 3 weeks, the Fighting Irish have been held to 18.3 points and 1.3 gains of at least 30 yards per game.
My confidence in Southern Cal is not at its highest point given the fortunate triple overtime win against Arizona last Saturday. At some point, the Trojans’ poor defense and the tendency to let teams hang around will catch up with them. Still, I think USC offensive firepower will carry the day in South Bend. Quarterback Caleb Williams has put together another Heisman-caliber season, throwing for 22 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Lincoln Riley’s squad ranks third in the nation in passing yards per game, averaging nearly 15 yards per completion. In a game with a lot of question marks, I’ll put my faith in college football’s best player.
Oregon +3 at Washington: The most anticipated game of the day will be in Seattle, a matchup of top 10 teams with an inside track to the Pac-12 Championship Game at stake. In terms of yards gained per game, these are the two best offenses in the country. However, each team has a different approach. Washington favors the vertical passing game, averaging 11.6 yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, Oregon prioritizes efficiency, with a greater emphasis on short throws, screens, and the ground game.
There are three reasons why I give the Ducks the edge on the road. First, Oregon takes care of the football better than anyone in the country, committing just 1 turnover so far this season. Second, the ability to run effectively will help establish time of possession and keep the dynamic Huskies offense off the field. The Ducks have the No. 8 rushing attack, averaging more than 225 yards per game. Finally, Dan Lanning has the better pass defense, allowing an average of only 154 yards in the air each game. In a game where the scoreboard might light up like a Christmas tree, I think Oregon will keep its perfect season alive.
Oregon State -3.5 vs. UCLA: Despite providing a win for me last week, I am picking against the Bruins here. Chip Kelly’s defense has been phenomenal, ranking No. 2 in rush defense and No. 8 nationally in sacks per game. The offense under true freshman quarterback Dante Moore is still a work in progress. In Moore’s last two outings (both against ranked teams), he completed only 46.8% of his passes with 3 interceptions. Turnovers may be the difference in this game, and UCLA throws interceptions on 4.36% of its passing attempts (116th nationally).
Meanwhile, scoring has not been a problem lately for the Beavers. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei enters this game fresh off a performance with 5 passing touchdowns at California. Oregon State gains nearly 450 yards of offense per game and has the 15th ranked rushing attack. Corvallis is a very difficult place to play, and I expect the Beavers to find a way to score against a difficult defensive unit.
Upset Special
- Record to date: 4-2
BYU ML at TCU (+190): The Horned Frogs have not been able to replicate last season’s improbable run to the National Championship game. TCU enters this contest after consecutive losses to West Virginia and Iowa State. Quarterback Chandler Morris injured his knee against the Cyclones and will likely be out a few weeks. His replacement, Josh Hoover, struggled in clean-up duty, fumbling on his first play from scrimmage and throwing an interception on his second passing attempt. Now starting for the first time, Hoover will have to contend with a Cougar defense that forces nearly 2 turnovers a game. Following a bye week, I expect Kalani Sitake’s squad to be well-prepared for a road trip to Fort Worth.
Random Fact To Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
Even though this season has had its share of insane moments and surprising results, we have yet to see the cataclysmic upsets of top teams that often characterize college football. Thus far, there have been 63 games involving ranked preseason top 15 teams where they have been a favorite of 10 or more points. Only one of those games – Duke’s Week 1 victory over Clemson – resulted in an outright victory for the underdog. Preseason polls often take criticism for overvaluing certain teams, but it seems that sportswriters and broadcasters did a decent job of identifying the cream of the crop. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that the luck of favorites may run out as we get into the second half of the season.
SabreBetrics is written by a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
