Virginia’s stunning victory over North Carolina is a testament to character and resilience. Even the most optimistic members of the Cavalier fan base could not have made predictions that a 1-5 team would earn the first win over an Associated Press Top 10 opponent on the road in school history.
Regardless of how you feel about the coaching staff, recruiting, or the overall direction of the program, it is unquestionably true that these players have continued to grind and give their full effort to this team.
After narrow misses in consecutive weeks, I want to channel this resilient energy into my picks for Week 9. To help get back on the winning track, I am focusing my attention on several teams in “bounce back” positions.
Virginia Predictions Week 9
- Record to date: 4-3 on spread, 4-3 on over/unders
Virginia +18.5 vs. Miami, Under 46.5
Miami’s double overtime win against Clemson in Week 8 was desperately needed for a program in peril. Following an inexplicable home loss to Georgia Tech that was marred by coaching malfeasance, Mario Cristobal’s team could not stop UNC’s high-octane offense. Down 10 points in the fourth quarter at home to Clemson, it appeared Miami’s once promising season was going to be upended by a three-game losing streak. Instead, back-up quarterback Emory Williams led two scoring drives and the Hurricanes emerged with a victory.
From a talent perspective, Miami has more speed and a deeper roster. The offense has seen dramatic improvements this season under new offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has NFL-caliber arm talent and is ranked 11th nationally in total QBR. He missed the Clemson game with hand and leg injuries but is expected to play this weekend.
The team’s most dangerous running back, Henry Parrish Jr., may return from injury as well. Behind a physical offensive line, the Hurricanes average 5.4 yards per carry and nearly 194 yards on the ground each game. Miami has a nearly even balance of offensive play-calling, so it will be a difficult test for the Virginia defense to stop the formidable rushing attack without allowing Van Dyke to pick the secondary apart.
Miami also has a talented and aggressive defense. Against Clemson, the Hurricanes accumulated 5 sacks and 10 tackles for a loss while holding the Tigers to only 31 rushing yards. To this point in the season, the team ranks No. 7 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (79.6) and concedes only 2.73 yards per rush attempt.
The Hurricanes are dealing with some injuries along the defensive line, as starting edge rusher Nyjalik Kelly is out for the season and defensive end Akheem Mesidor remains questionable. Still, this is an impressive defensive unit, and we should not expect the Cavaliers to replicate the 228 rushing yard performance that they achieved last weekend.
It would be asking a lot for Virginia to pull off back-to-back road upsets, but I think the Cavaliers can keep this closer than expected. The win against North Carolina should provide the team with confidence that it can compete with anyone remaining on the schedule. The key questions for the Hoos are whether they can avoid negative plays and if the offensive line can keep Tony Muskett upright. I’m not sure that’s a reasonable expectation for four quarters, but I would be thrilled to be wrong for the second weekend in a row. Hurricanes over the Hoos, 27-17.
Important note for this section: As a Virginia alum and regular reader of The Sabre, I love talking about the Cavaliers. However, I never bet for or against Virginia in my personal portfolio.
Week 9 Best Bet Predictions
- Season record: 19-22-1.
For the second consecutive week, my path to a winning week was foiled by improbable circumstances. A phantom illegal fair catch penalty took a winning touchdown off the board for Iowa, and I had to settle for a 2-3 record. No time to dwell on it though, as I am ready to get “back on schedule” with these picks.
North Carolina -11.5 at Georgia Tech: Let’s start off with the team Virginia beat. Quarterback Drake Maye did not play his sharpest game against the Cavaliers’ secondary, but he also did not get much help from his receiving corps. Multiple drives were held up by untimely dropped passes, resulting in only a 50% completion percentage from Maye (his lowest of the season). I think this is just a fluky performance from an offense that has been one of the best in the country all season. The Tar Heels still have the 10th ranked passing attack, averaging 321.3 yards in the air per game and 13.23 yards per completion.
Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech defense has been a sieve, allowing 452.7 total yards and 227.7 rushing yards per contest. The latter category makes the Yellow Jackets the second worst rushing defense in the FBS. They enter this contest after allowing 563 yards to a middling Boston College team in an embarrassing home defeat. This is a perfect “get right” game for the Tar Heels against a team that consistently gives up explosive plays.
North Carolina State +10.5 vs. Clemson: This is an inflection point game for two 4-3 ACC teams. Last week, Clemson allowed Miami to come back from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter before eventually losing in overtime. It is the Tigers’ first season with three conference losses since 2010, the third season of Dabo Swinney’s tenure.
As mentioned in the Miami preview, Clemson was mauled on both sides of the line of scrimmage. I think NC State’s defensive front will provide a similar challenge for the Tigers’ offensive line. Anchored by the disruptive presence of linemen Red Hibbler and Davin Vann plus linebacker Payton Wilson, the Wolfpack rank 11th in the nation in sacks generated per game. Injuries to the secondary have kept Dave Doeren’s team from playing elite defense, but the bye week should provide an opportunity to make necessary adjustments. It also gives quarterback MJ Morris an opportunity to expand his comfort level with the offense.
I’m not sure that State will pull off the upset, but at home against a struggling Clemson team, I’ll take the points.
Boise State -5 vs. Wyoming: No team needed a bye last week more than Boise State. In Week 7, the Broncos watched a 30-10 lead evaporate in the last four minutes against Colorado State before losing on a Hail Mary. Before the improbable collapse, it was one of Boise’s best performances of the season. Running back Ashton Jeanty rushed for 212 yards and 3 touchdowns, while the defense held the Rams to 42 yards on the ground.
Wyoming has outplayed its underlying metrics this season. Despite ranking outside the top 100 in yards gained per game, the Cowboys are 5-2 with impressive performances against Texas and Air Force and an upset win against Texas Tech. I think it is possible though that this weekend starts a regression to the mean. Though Wyoming has won all 5 of its home games, it has yet to win outside of Laramie.
Central Florida -6.5 vs. West Virginia: Coaches are frequently insistent that there is no such thing as a moral victory in losing close to an opponent. However, if momentum can be gained from close losses, you would have to think UCF’s performance against No. 6 Oklahoma would provide some confidence. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has dealt with a leg injury this season and it has clearly impacted the Knights’ record. Now that he is healthy enough to play, expect to see better production from a team that already ranks 5th in rushing yards per game. Central Florida gained nearly 400 yards of offense against the Sooners, averaging an impressive 5.6 yards per play.
Meanwhile, West Virginia’s dream season appears to have crashed back down to earth in the last two weeks. The Mountaineers allowed a struggling Oklahoma State offense to score 48 points and gain 491 total yards last week in Morgantown. The run defense is outside the top 100 in the FBS, which is not a good matchup when facing Gus Malzahn’s offense.
Troy -5.5 at Texas State: The reigning Sun Belt Champions will be well-positioned to make a return trip to the title game if they can get a road victory in San Marcos on Saturday. The Trojans have won four straight games thanks to an elite defensive unit that allows just more than 17 points and 97 yards rushing per game. Linebackers Javon Solomon and Richard Jibunor have 9.5 sacks this season, adding to their combined career total of 46.5. Knowing that the defense is robust, sixth year quarterback Gunnar Watson has focused on playing mistake free football. Though his numbers are not spectacular, he has dramatically cut down on turnovers this season after throwing 12 interceptions last year.
Texas State has been one of the most surprising teams compared to preseason models, thanks in large part to the play of transfer quarterback TJ Finley. He will certainly have his work cut out for him in this matchup, as his offensive line concedes more than 2 sacks per game and on 6.5% of drop backs. For this game, I trust the team with the championship experience and pedigree.
Upset Special
- Record to date: 4-3
Purdue ML at Nebraska (+120): This is another one of my patented “run to the smell” games. Purdue stumbled into its bye week after a loss at Iowa and a non-competitive game against Ohio State. The Boilermakers’ best win of the season is a rain-soaked mess of a game at Lane Stadium against Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, Nebraska won two straight and has the nation’s 4th ranked rush defense, allowing only 76.6 yards per game. Even with the game being played at Lincoln, the Huskers are only a short 3-point favorite. At first glance, this line makes no sense.
However, the underlying numbers give good reason to be skeptical of Nebraska. Matt Rhule’s offense has been awful this year and besieged by injuries. Three members of the offensive line will be out this week due to significant injuries, as will Billy Kemp IV, one of the team’s leading receivers and primary kick returner. Despite a 4-1 record in games started this season, quarterback Heinrich Haarberg has been very inefficient, completing only 51.3 percent of his passes. The Huskers rank 125th nationally in passing yards per game and second to last in the FBS in interception percentage.
Though I don’t have any reason to believe in Purdue, there are plenty of reasons to doubt Nebraska this week.
Random Fact To Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
We have had a lot of fun at North Carolina’s expense the last few days. How about one more factoid to rub extra salt in the wound? Since the start of the 2020 season, the Tar Heels have a 6-5 record in ACC games where they are a favorite of 10 or more points. No other ACC team has two such losses. Only Clemson, with a record of 16-2 in these situations, has played in more conference games as a double-digit favorite. The floor is clearly higher for Mack Brown’s program, but he has shown a proclivity to lose important games that should be easy wins.
SabreBetrics is written by a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.e. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
You identify Billy Kemp IV as one Nebraska’s leading receivers and primary kick returner. It would be helpful to remind readers that Kemp also played four years as a Wahoo.