It is hard to believe that we are already entering the last month of college football’s regular season. It seems like only yesterday that I was mapping out futures bets and predictions in the blistering summer heat.
Gambling on college sports is always difficult, but it is especially hard at the beginning of the season when there is not sufficient data to back up your instincts. With nine weeks of information and film at your disposal, November is the perfect time to step up your wagering game. We’re coming around the final turn of the race and it’s time to accelerate.
Here are some predictions for the week.
Virginia Predictions Week 10
- Record to date: 5-3 on spread, 4-4 on over/unders
Virginia -2 vs. Georgia Tech, Under 58
Once again, Tony Elliott’s program must bounce back from a close loss in a winnable game. UVA now has four losses this season by a combined 10 points. Had the Cavaliers pulled off the upset, they would have been the first college football team in the modern gambling era to win consecutive road games as an underdog of at least 18 points. However, a postmortem on what could have been will have to wait, as the Hoos face a plucky opponent this weekend fresh off its best win of the season.
Brent Key’s short tenure at Georgia Tech has been a bit of a roller coaster. Consider the last five games of the Yellow Jackets’ schedule:
- A confident two touchdown victory at Wake Forest
- An 11-point home loss to a middling Bowling Green squad
- A shocking last-second win at Miami assisted by Mario Cristobal’s inexplicable late-game clock management
- A 38-23 home loss to Boston College where the team allowed 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter
- A high scoring upset victory over North Carolina where the team rushed for 246 yards in the fourth quarter
This vacillating production makes Georgia Tech a difficult team to project on any given week. The Jackets certainly have the talent, particularly on offense, to win on the road. Quarterback Haynes King is having the best season of his career, throwing for 2,122 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 8.4 yards per completion. However, as the 10 interceptions demonstrate, he also tends to make risky throws that can get the team into trouble.
King’s arm talent does open opportunities for a formidable ground game led by Dontae Smith and Jamal Haynes. Averaging 192 rushing yards per game (21st in the FBS) and 5.5 yards per carry, Georgia Tech’s backs and King’s scrambling abilities pose a significant challenge for the Virginia front seven.
However, the defensive side of the ball is much less imposing. Georgia Tech ranks last in the country in yards allowed to FBS opponents, conceding a staggering 492 yards per contest. They are particularly porous against opposing rushing attacks, allowing 233 yards per game (132nd in the FBS) and 5.4 yards per attempt. The secondary isn’t much better, yielding over 14 yards per pass attempt. In short, this is a bad defense, and the Cavaliers should be able to put points on the board.
This game has the potential to be a wild offensive duel. Brent Key’s team has relished the role of the underdog, covering 10 of the last 12 when getting points from Vegas oddsmakers. Seven of these games were won outright. Still, I will take Virginia here to get its first conference home win of the Tony Elliott era. After watching months of inconsistent performances from Georgia Tech, I am glad we are catching them after a winning week. Hoos over the Yellow Jackets, 31-26.
Important note for this section: As a Virginia alum and regular reader of The Sabre, I love talking about the Cavaliers. However, I never bet for or against Virginia in my personal portfolio.
Week 9 Best Bet Predictions
- Season record: 22-24-1.
A solid 3-2 week has me in position to get over .500 for the first time this season. Time to take advantage with some teams that are undervalued because of recent performances.
Wisconsin -9.5 at Indiana: The Badgers have not had the same offensive pop since losing quarterback Tanner Mordecai to a hand injury against Iowa. However, his replacement Braedyn Locke has shown positive steps in taking control of Luke Fickell’s offense. Locke orchestrated a fourth quarter comeback against Illinois in Week 8 and played mistake free football against Ohio State.
Under normal circumstances, you would expect for Wisconsin to be at least 2-touchdown favorites against a 2-6 Indiana team. However, injuries last week to running back Braelon Allen and wideout Chimere Dike coupled with the Hoosiers’ surprisingly competitive performance against Penn State may have spooked oddsmakers.
Still, in looking at data for the entire season, there’s very little reason to believe Indiana will keep this close. Tom Allen’s squad has lost four straight and has only one victory over an FBS team this year, an overtime win against 2-7 Akron. The Hoosiers’ offense is anemic, averaging only 18.6 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. Even if Braelon Allen cannot play this weekend, expect the Badgers to run through the Big Ten’s worst rushing defense.
Penn State -9 at Maryland: After cruising through the first seven weeks of the season, Penn State finally ran into the Ohio State buzzsaw. After losing a game with so much national hype, it is unsurprising that James Franklin’s team looked listless against Indiana last Saturday. However, I expect this weekend’s trip to College Park will be an opportunity to get right.
The Nittany Lions still have the second ranked defense, allowing only 234.5 yards per game. The key to this unit’s success has been the ability to get off the field on third downs, allowing a conversion rate of only 28.2% (4th in the FBS). This is not the defense you want to be facing when your season is cratering. Maryland has lost three straight, including an inexplicable defeat against Northwestern last Saturday. Since joining the Big 10 in 2014, the Terrapins have never beaten a ranked member of its conference.
Don’t expect Franklin to hold back against the program that passed over naming him the head coach in favor of Randy Edsall.
Coastal Carolina -1.5 at Old Dominion: No Grayson McCall, no problem for the Chanticleers last week against Marshall. His replacement at quarterback, Jarrett Guest, threw for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns on 20 pass attempts. McCall may be able to play this weekend if he has fully recovered from his concussion, but the offense will be fine either way. Coastal Carolina’s offense ranks in the top 25 in completion percentage, passing yards per game, and yards per pass.
The defense has also been able to hold opposing quarterbacks to a 56.6% completion percentage. That’s almost identical to what Old Dominion has produced through the air this season. Despite the Monarchs playing undefeated James Madison close last week, this is still a team that nearly lost a home game to Texas A&M-Commerce in late September. I trust the totality of Coastal Carolina’s resume considerably more.
Oklahoma -6 at Oklahoma State: Since defeating Texas in the Red River Rivalry, Oklahoma has not looked quite as crisp in subsequent weeks. A narrow home victory over UCF was followed by an upset loss to Kansas last Saturday. Still, I trust the underlying metrics of the Sooners’ season.
Brent Venables is known for his defensive prowess, but his team has one of the most dangerous offenses in college football. Oklahoma has the fourth ranked scoring offense, averaging nearly 42 points per game. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has the third highest QBR rating for the season, completing 71.4% of his passes with 19 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions.
As someone who predicted that Oklahoma State would overachieve this season, I have greatly enjoyed the team’s current four-game winning streak. However, it’s also true that the Cowboys have gotten lucky in recent weeks. Mike Gundy’s defense is still in search of an identity, conceding more than 409 yards per game (105th in the FBS). This might be the last installment of the Bedlam rivalry for some time as Oklahoma departs for the SEC, so make sure you enjoy it.
UCLA -3 at Arizona: The Bruins opened Pac-12 play with a 14-7 loss against Utah. In the game, Chip Kelly’s offense managed to gain only 9 rushing yards. Even with this lackluster performance, UCLA has the 8th rated rushing offense, averaging 216 yards per game on the ground. Though Kelly has been the architect of some of the best finesse offenses of the past 20 years, the foundation of this year’s team has been built from the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Bruins have two of the country’s top 20 sack leaders in defensive linemen Laiatu Latu and Gabriel Murphy.
Arizona has been competitive in every game this season and has played inspired football since making the move to redshirt freshman quarterback Noah Fifita. However, Fifita has never faced a defensive front of UCLA’s caliber. The Wildcats were fortunate to come away with a victory against Oregon State last weekend, but I believe that their luck will run out this Saturday.
Upset Special
- Record to date: 4-4
Texas A&M ML at Mississippi (+135): My “run to the smell” play of Purdue failed miserably last week, but I am using the same reasoning again with the Aggies here. Jimbo Fisher’s squad has lost two of the last three and is traveling to Oxford to face the nation’s 11th ranked team. You would expect them to be more than a 3-point underdog.
However, Texas A&M has the defensive talent to keep Lane Kiffin’s up-tempo offense at bay. The Aggies have the 14th ranked pass defense and 13th ranked rush defense, allowing fewer than 270 yards per game. Anchored by disruptive linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, the defense ranks second in the country in sacks. Though Mississippi’s offense is one of the best in the SEC, the Rebels have struggled with pass protection this season. Quarterback Jaxson Dart has been sacked 19 times this year which accounts for 8.5% of his drop backs. Look for Fisher to blitz early and often in this contest, trusting his talented secondary to win individual battles against Mississippi wideouts.
Random Fact To Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
One of the odd things about Virginia’s season is that while the overall record has been disappointing, the team is consistently outperforming Vegas expectations. The Cavaliers have one of college football’s best records against the spread at 6-2 and have covered in all four conference games thus far. This ATS conference record is shared by in-state rival Virginia Tech and is only one game behind Old Dominion’s 5-0 mark which leads the nation. As we get into the last month of the season, will sportsbooks adjust and give schools in the Commonwealth their due?
SabreBetrics is written by a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
