With only three weeks remaining in the regular season, this Saturday provides a pivotal opportunity for teams to make a final push for conference superiority and bowl eligibility. Similarly, I have some work to do with predictions.
Though many of my preseason bets are in great shape – thank you to Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Texas Tech for your service – I am running out of time to make the regular season profitable.
Let’s see what we can do this weekend with intriguing matchups across the board.
Virginia Predictions Week 11
- Record to date: 5-4 on spread, 4-5 on over/unders
Virginia +20.5 at Louisville, Over 50.5
Even my cynical mind did not see a four touchdown home loss to Georgia Tech coming. Though the first quarter injury to quarterback Tony Muskett changed the complexion of the game, the bigger issue for UVA was the complete inability to stop the Yellow Jackets’ run game. It’s tough to be competitive when you concede 514 total yards of offense and 305 rushing yards.
Now the Hoos must regroup on a short week against another run-heavy opponent.
Louisville has one of the best running back tandems in the country with Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo. The pair has combined for 195 carries for 1,279 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. When your top backs average 6.6 yards per carry, you can use play-action to devastating effect. That’s where quarterback Jack Plummer comes in. Watching him in the pocket, you may not be wowed by his arm talent or mobility. However, with five years of meaningful college experience, he is the perfect operator of Jeff Brohm’s offense. Plummer ranks first in the ACC with 14.02 yards per completion. Many of his passes have been to Jamari Thrash, one of the most explosive wideouts in the conference. Because Virginia will likely need to stack the box to keep the Cardinals’ run game in check, Thrash, and his 15.1 yards per reception, figures to be a dangerous deep threat throughout this contest.
However, the defensive unit is the primary reason Louisville has risen to the No. 11 ranking in The Associated Press poll and is on the verge of clinching a trip to the ACC Championship Game. Last week the Cardinals held Virginia Tech, previously one of the hottest teams in the conference, to only 140 total yards of offense and 3 points. Louisville’s defense is particularly stout in the red zone, where teams have scored points on only two-thirds of possessions (5th nationally). Regardless of who plays quarterback for Virginia, he will have his hands full in facing a defensive front that allows only 3.0 yards per rush attempt and a secondary that has allowed completions on only 55% of passes.
This game feels rather one-sided, particularly when having to go on the road on short rest. Still, I think there’s a chance Virginia can keep it closer than Vegas expects. Tony Elliot’s team has covered four straight games as an underdog and already has a major upset of UNC under its belt. Still, there is little reason for optimism against a Louisville team that is playing its best football of the season in recent weeks. Cardinals over the Hoos, 34-14.
Important note for this section: As a Virginia alum and regular reader of The Sabre, I love talking about the Cavaliers. However, I never bet for or against Virginia in my personal portfolio.
Week 11 Best Bet Predictions
- Season record: 24-27-1.
Football commentators frequently tell you that everyone is playing through pain at this point in the season. Still, in making my picks this week, I had to navigate several question marks with the health of starting quarterbacks. As you make your picks this week, consider this question: Which teams have the depth to survive injuries at the most important position in the game?
Michigan -4 at Penn State: You don’t have to look very far to find reasons to fade Michigan this week. The sign-stealing controversy swirling around the program is an unnecessary distraction and could imperil the tenure of head coach Jim Harbaugh. Happy Valley is one of the most difficult places to play in college football. James Franklin has an elite defensive unit, ranking third nationally in points allowed per game (11.9) and stop rate (81.9%).
Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, Michigan has the highest rated defense in both of those categories. It has been nearly impossible to sustain drives against the Wolverine defense. All 6 touchdowns Michigan has allowed this season – yes, only 6 – have been on explosive plays. While this might bring some comfort to a team with a dynamic offense, Penn State rates near the bottom of the FBS in explosive play percentage.
Harbaugh’s offense is firing on all cylinders as well, scoring at least 40 points in five consecutive games and 30 or more points in 12 straight. While it would surprise me for Michigan to keep that streak alive given Penn State’s formidable defense, I do think Big Blue will be able to add to the 21 consecutive wins over Big Ten competition.
Texas -10 at TCU: Both teams enter this intrastate rivalry with questions at quarterback. Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers is listed as day-to-day, which likely explains why this line is not closer to 2 touchdowns. His replacement, Maalik Murphy has struggled at times, but has finally started settling into the offense. Steve Sarkisian has leaned more heavily on talented running back Jonathan Brooks who spearheaded the team’s 230-yard ground performance against Kansas State last week.
On the other sideline, it appears that Josh Hoover will get his fourth consecutive start as Chandler Morris continues to rehab a knee injury. Hoover is not afraid to sling the ball around, but that also means he can be mistake prone. He has thrown an interception in every appearance this season with 5 turnovers in his last three games. Look for Texas standouts T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II, Pro Football Focus’ highest rated defensive tackles this season, to terrorize the inexperienced Horned Frogs quarterback.
Memphis -9.5 at Charlotte: Speaking of ailing quarterbacks, Memphis’ Seth Henigan is listed as day-to-day following an injury sustained in his team’s 59-50 win over South Florida. After Henigan exited the game, his replacement Tevin Carter immediately threw a game-clinching 85-yard touchdown pass. Henigan obviously makes the Tigers a more potent team, but the offense should continue humming even if he is not healthy enough to play. Ryan Silverfield’s squad averages 39.2 points per game (11th in the FBS) and ranks in the top 10 in turnover margin.
Though Charlotte has made significant strides under first-year coach Biff Poggi, the 49ers do not have the offense to keep up with Memphis. Charlotte ranks 129th in the FBS in scoring offense with only 16.8 points per game. The offensive line has struggled to keep quarterback Trexler Ivey upright, including 7 sacks in the last three games. This game has the biggest differential between the Vegas spread and Bill Connelly’s SP+ model. Memphis should win comfortably.
North Carolina State -2 at Wake Forest: Who is ready for the Brennan Armstrong redemption arc? After the surprise announcement that quarterback MJ Morris would be redshirting for the remainder of the season, the Wolfpack must once again rely on the former Cavalier to run the offense. Though Armstrong’s passing numbers have cratered since the improbable 2021 season, he has remained an important part of the NC State run game. More importantly, Dave Doeren’s team has been lights out defensively for the last several weeks. Last week, Miami was held to 6 points, 292 total yards, and had 4 turnovers.
As for Wake Forest, this has been a difficult rebuilding year. Dave Clawson’s team, usually known for producing high-scoring offenses using a slow mesh system, has been held to just over 22 points per game (102nd in the FBS). Quarterback Mitch Griffis has struggled mightily in his first year as the full-time starter, completing under 60% of his passes and with the nation’s 122nd rated QBR. You have to wonder about the mentality of a team that has lost five straight games, especially when facing an opponent in NC State that still has an outside chance of making the ACC Championship Game.
Utah +10 at Washington: The Huskies are just outside the College Football Playoff and have one of the best offenses in college football. However, after putting up 52 points against USC’s porous defense, Kalen DeBoer’s squad might suffer whiplash against Utah. Explosive plays allowed Washington to wriggle its way out of several 3rd-and-long situations in the Coliseum. I’m not sure that is a recipe for success against the Utes who boast the nation’s best defensive third down percentage (24.3%).
Kyle Whittingham relishes the role of the underdog, going 14-4 against the spread in these situations over the last 10 seasons. After Washington’s high-profile victory over Oregon, the team suffered a letdown the following week in a sleepy 15-6 win against Arizona State (a team Utah just beat by 52 points). Might we see another lackluster performance after Saturday’s emotional win in Los Angeles?
Upset Special
- Record to date: 4-5
Coastal Carolina ML vs. Texas State (+105): I rode with the Chanticleers last weekend, and they came through with a road victory at Old Dominion. With quarterback Grayson McCall still sidelined with an injury, Ethan Vasko came in and ran all over the field. In addition to 180 passing yards, Vasko ran 21 times for 170 yards and a touchdown. After some early season struggles, Coastal Carolina has won four straight despite playing three games on the road.
Though Texas State has overachieved expectations this season thanks to the strong play of quarterback TJ Finley, the Bobcats’ defense has not been as impressive. The team ranks 116th in passing yards allowed per game (258.1) and 12.2 yards per completion. After allowing 30 points or more in five games this year, expect a lot of points to be scored in this Sun Belt matchup.
Random Fact To Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
One of the things that separates the good teams from the truly elite is the ability to win on the road in front of thousands of screaming fans. Since the 2020 season, only two teams have managed to avoid having multiple losses in true road situations: Ohio State and Georgia (14-1). During that same stretch, Louisiana-Monroe has only one true road victory in 21 attempts. From a betting perspective, since 2022, only two schools have road records against the spread that are better than 75%: UNLV (13-4) and Georgia State (15-5).
SabreBetrics is written by a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
