99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff

With preseason practice set to begin Friday, the Virginia football team will begin to piece together the strategies, plans, and personnel for the start of the 2018 season. The Cavaliers open with Richmond on Sept. 1 and rattle off five games in September before a bye week arrives. That means this month of preparation will set the Hoos up for nearly half their schedule in the first month of the season.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series looks at one of the battles within a game.

No. 36 – The Third Down Swap

UVA returned to bowl play in 2017 after a six-year absence, winning six games in the regular season with three of those in ACC play. The 40-36 victory against Georgia Tech on Nov. 4 secured a postseason spot for the Hoos. That win proved to be a lonely bright spot in the second half of the season, though.

The Cavaliers opened with a 5-1 record in the season’s first six games, only to falter to a 1-5 record in the second half of the schedule. They followed that up with a disappointing 49-7 loss in the Military Bowl against Navy.

What changed? While there are many moving parts on a football team, one area that contributed to the second-half slide is worth examination: third downs.

Virginia’s third down efforts on both offense and defense are broken down by game below:

Opponent	Offense	Defense
William & Mary	9-18 (50.0%)	1-11 (9.1%)
Indiana	10-24 (41.7%)	4-15 (26.7%)
Connecticut	7-12 (58.3%)	5-11 (45.5%)
Boise State	9-15 (60.0%)	4-16 (25.0%)
Duke	8-18 (44.4%)	5-17 (29.4%)
North Carolina	4-16 (25.0%)	3-11 (27.3%)
Boston College	7-16 (43.8%)	10-19 (52.6%)
Pittsburgh	6-17 (35.3%)	5-12 (41.7%)
Georgia Tech	4-17 (23.5%)	6-17 (35.3%)
Louisville	6-15 (40.0%)	4-11 (36.4%)
Miami	4-13 (30.8%)	6-13 (46.2%)
Virginia Tech	4-15 (26.7%)	7-18 (38.9%)
Navy	4-13 (30.8%)	9-16 (56.3%)

Nationally, the top 63 teams converted third downs at better than 40.0% for the 2017 season per cfbstats.com. The top 25 came through at 44.5% or better and the top 10 posted a rate of 45.7% or better. Virginia’s season rate of 39.23% finished 74th nationally. Clemson was tops in the ACC at 46.33%, good enough for No. 7 nationally.

During UVA’s 5-1 start, the offense fell below a 40.0% conversion rate just once. That came in the win against North Carolina when the Tar Heels also struggled on third down. The offense converted 44.4% or better four times in the first six games. That 44.4% number would have tied Arkansas State at No. 26 nationally if sustained over the whole season.

On the other hand, during the Hoos’ 1-5 finish, the offense fell below a 40.0% conversation rate in four of the six games. Surprisingly, they won the game against Georgia Tech despite 23.5% success on third down. The offense converted at 35.3% of worse four times in the final six regular season games and then again against Navy. That 35.3% number would have tied Idaho for No. 99 nationally if sustained over the whole season.

The offense failed to score any points in the final eight quarters of the season against Virginia Tech and Navy plus the final 27:21 of the Miami game. In those three games, the third down struggles contributed. In those three games, the Hoos converted 30.8% twice and 26.7% once for three of the season’s worst five performances on third down. Of note, that 30.8% number would have fallen at 120th nationally just behind UNC if sustained over the whole season. Yuck.

Some of the drop over the second half of the season can be traced to short yardage issues. In the first six games of the regular season, UVA converted 31 of 51 chances (60.8%) on 3rd-and-5 or less. In the final six games, the offense came through on 23 of 42 chances (54.8%) on those same distances. That’s a 6% drop. Plus, the Hoos clearly weren’t putting themselves in those situations as often with nine fewer opportunities on those down and distances in the final six games. In the final three games mentioned above, Virginia got just 17 chances on 3rd-and-5 or shorter compared to 26 tries in the season’s first three games.

That, of course, alludes to the many moving parts on a football team. Coach Mendenhall has pointed to better success on early downs during the offseason as a key area for improvement. That would put the team in more manageable situations on third down, which the numbers showed declined in the second half of the season. That’s somewhere that new starting quarterback Bryce Perkins could make a difference with his ability to scramble with great acceleration. That can quickly erase a 3rd-and-4 for example. A maturing offensive line could make a big dent here as well by improving the running game overall.

What about the other side of the ball? UVA ranked 49th nationally by allowing 36.7% conversions on third down. The top 50 were all better than 37.0%, while the top 25 checked in at 33.33% or better. The top 10 allowed just 30.41% or better. Virginia Tech topped the ACC at 26.2%, good enough for No. 2 nationally last season.

A similar second-half decline hit the defense on third down, though not as sharply as the offense. In the 5-1 start, allowed a better than 30.0% conversion rate just once. That came in the win against UConn, which came in at 45.5%. As noted above, a better than 30.0% rate would have landed in the top 10 if sustained across the season.

On the other hand, the defense allowed 38.9% or better four times in the final six regular season games. That 38.9% number, by the way, would have checked in at 69th nationally, which as already noted was not as drastic a drop-off as the offense. Looking again at the final three games of the season including the bowl game, UVA allowed two of its three worst numbers for the season against Miami and Navy. The Hurricanes hit 46.2% of their attempts on third down, while Navy blasted the defense at a 56.3% conversion rate on third downs, the top effort of the season against the Hoos. That 46.2% number would have came in 118th nationally just behind Louisiana-Monroe if sustained for the whole season. So Yuck again.

Some of the drop-off during the second half of the season again came down to distances. In the first six games of the season, opponents faced 3rd-and-6 or longer on 51 of 81 third downs – that’s 63% of the time. Opponents converted 14 of 30 attempts on 3rd-and-5 or shorter (46.7%), but just eight of the remaining 51 attempts (15.7%). So clearly, as expected, it’s better for the defense to get into those longer situations. In the final six games of the regular season, however, opponents faced 3rd-and-6 or longer on 47 of the 90 third downs – that’s 52.2% of the time, a drop of 10.8%. Opponents converted 24 of 43 attempts on 3rd-and-5 or shorter (55.8%), but just 14 of 47 of the remaining 47 attempts (29.8%). So the UVA defense faced shorter distances more often. Plus, it gave up greater conversion rates overall as well.

That’s where some of the offseason concerns with defensive line depth and experience come into the conversation around moving parts. If the front seven can’t perform at a strong level on early downs, then the deep and experienced secondary may not be able to be as disruptive as UVA hopes simply due to down and distances.

Long story short: third downs likely need to trend back toward the first half of last season if the Hoos are going to make it to back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 2004 and 2005.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series has discussed much more. The previous articles are below. Click away.

• No. 99 – The Importance Of A Fast Start
• No. 98 – The Impact Of Early-Ending Careers
• No. 97 – Jordan Mack’s Role
• No. 96 – Welcome Back
• No. 95 – Han Solo Says
• No. 94 – Smart Addition
• No. 93 – The Center Spot
• No. 92 – Finding A Punt Returner
• No. 91 – Facing Running Quarterbacks
• No. 90 – Interceptions
• No. 89 – Kickoff Times
• No. 88 – QB Optimism Not Enough To Tilt Early Predictions Too Far
• No. 87 – It Starts With Jordan Ellis
• No. 86 – Virginia’s Most Dangerous Game
• No. 85 – The Tight End Swan Song?
• No. 84 – Teach A Man To Fish
• No. 83 – No Ordinary Joe
• No. 82 – Now Or Then
• No. 81 – How To Treat The Kickoff Rule Change
• No. 80 – Play, But Still Redshirt
• No. 79 – Which Red Zone Offense Is The Real One?
• No. 78 – Schedule For Success
• No. 77 – Who’s The Worst?
• No. 76 – ACC Coach Rankings
• No. 75 – Keep That Cold Weather Gear
• No. 74 – 1,000 Target For OZ
• No. 73 – Cross Out Cross-Training For Cross
• No. 72 – Punting Plans
• No. 71 – Redshirted … Ready?
• No. 70 – A June Jolt
• No. 69 – Who?
• No. 68 – Stops To Start Second Half
• No. 67 – Root, Root, Root For …
• No. 66 – Wildcard Extras
• No. 65 – Defense Showed Red Zone Improvement
• No. 64 – Welcome Back, Mr. Robinson
• No. 63 – The Florida Footprint
• No. 62 – True Freshmen Will Play, But Who Will Make The Most Impact?
• No. 61 – Four Fireworks-Worthy Moments In The Bronco Mendenhall Era
• No. 60 – Juan Thornhill Primed For An All-ACC Caliber Season
• No. 59 – Rebuilding The Offensive Line Is On Schedule
• No. 58 – Bouncing Back On The Defensive Line
• No. 57 – Underrated Hoos
• No. 56 – Lordy, Lordy, How ‘Bout 40?
• No. 55 – Peace Talk
• No. 54 – Hoos’ Handle On Social Media Bodes Well For Future Recruiting
• No. 53 – Filling The Void At Wide Receiver
• No. 52 – The Sixth-Year Seniors
• No. 51 – Borrowing A Burning Question
• No. 50 – Beat Tech!
• No. 49 – A Resolute Leader
• No. 48 – The Perkins Theorem
• No. 47 – Beat Pitt!
• No. 46 – A Look At Virginia Football’s 2018 Walk-On Class
• No. 45 – I Sense A Trend
• No. 44 – The Need For (More) Speed
• No. 43 – Progress With Penalties
• No. 42 – Preseason All-ACC Musings
• No. 41 – Designing Sacks
• No. 40 – Go Long
• No. 39 – Please Stay Healthy!
• No. 38 – Sorting Out The Secondary
• No. 37 – Preseason Injury Report Concerns