99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff

Early in the “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series, the spotlight found Jordan Ellis. The rising senior running back earned the first pick in the jersey number draft in each of Bronco Mendenhall’s first two seasons and he’s widely respected by his teammates.

Ellis also had a reasonably productive 2017 season when he rushed for 836 yards and six touchdowns on 215 carries. That was good enough for ninth in the ACC in rushing yards, which registered seventh among the running backs. Certainly, one would like to see more yards per carry – at 3.89, Ellis had the lowest number among the ACC’s top 15 yards producers – and more touchdowns – no one had fewer among the top 15, though Georgia Tech’s KirVonte Benson and Duke’s Shaun Wilson tied him with six.

Still, Ellis had a workman-like effort in 2017. He shouldered the majority of the load, accounting for 55% of the team’s total carries. He battled through some missed blocking to lose relatively few yards on the season (less than four yards per game on average). Plus, he took on pass protection roles a lot as a back too.

While UVA would like to see Ellis continue in those roles with hopefully more efficient production on his carries along with better blocking, for the offense to improve this season, the running game will have to be at the forefront. For that to happen, Ellis is going to need help and he may even need to see a reduction in his workload.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series continues.

No. 34 – More Rushing Options

During spring practice, the Virginia coaches made no secrets of the focus on offense. The directive: improve the running game. The approach: reset the offense around bigger run threats at quarterback and then repetition, repetition, repetition with those concepts.

That focus, of course, pushed a lot of attention toward two new quarterbacks in the spring. JUCO transfer Bryce Perkins and true freshman Brennan Armstrong both enrolled in January as dual-threat QBs recruited, in part, to help transform the offensive system back to what the coaches preferred at BYU. Perkins ultimately emerged as the front-runner for the position and the staff named him the starting quarterback at the end of spring practice. With Perkins at the helm, the strategy on offense will include option reads, run-pass option plays, and designed keepers.

Understandably, that thrust Perkins into the spotlight for much of this offseason. He’s mentioned frequently in preseason predictions, Mendenhall has praised his transition to UVA in interviews and donor settings, and teammates continue to share their excitement over his potential. The gist of all of it? Perkins has some explosive ability at quarterback, both with his legs and with downfield throws. He’s also fast. Like among the team’s best fast.

There’s little question that Perkins will produce more in the running game than departed starter Kurt Benkert, simply because their styles fall far apart on the quarterback spectrum. Benkert is now in Atlanta Falcons camp as a prototypical pocket passer with a big arm. Perkins, who has NFL caliber athletic bloodlines, can wheel with his legs in a way that Benkert simply can’t.

So Perkins is going to top the rushing yards Benkert had at Virginia and he’s going to do it in the first game. Benkert left UVA with minus-157 rushing yards due in large part to sacks counting against the rushing totals. He did gain 136 rushing yards in each season, but Perkins will beat that 272 number too this season, possibly before October gets here (that would be 54.4 yards per game during September’s five games)

Relying exclusively on Perkins as the booster the running game needs, however, won’t work. The Cavaliers need to close the gap on the ground elsewhere.

The number of attempts overall serves as a good starting point. Last season, opponents posted 168 more rushing attempts than Virginia, an average of 12.9 more carries per game. Even if you subtract out 45 attempts (the approximate difference between the national halfway point for attempts – that was TCU at 38 per game – and the option-heavy attempts from Navy and Georgia Tech at 63 and 57 attempts per game) for two average teams for running attempts vs. the scheme-specific opponents on UVA’s schedule, that’s still 9.5 more attempts per game. Keep in mind, that the Hoos also lost the 26 carries from Daniel Hamm, who finished his career last season.

Benkert averaged five attempts per game and Perkins likely will double that to help make up some of the difference, but asking him to pick up the other 4.5 to 8 carries per game would be a risky recipe. As things stand right now, a lot of this season’s promise rests on the potential of Perkins so running him too often and further exposing him to injury seems perilous.

That brings us back to Ellis. The rising senior posted 215 rushing attempts last season, the fourth most in the ACC and the second most among running backs behind only Boston College’s AJ Dillon. The coaches could decide to up his workload, but that seems unlikely for at least two reasons – one, his yards per carry hasn’t warranted that extra work to date and, two, the coaches have recruited some young talent to fit their plans. Plus, pushing college running backs past 200 carries has not been common at UVA. The last back before Ellis to do it was Kevin Parks with 227 in 2013.

The Cavaliers included Olamide Zaccheaus and Joe Reed in the running game out of the receiver position last season. Zaccheaus logged the second most carries on the team other than Benkert with 27, while Reed had 21 carries too. Zaccheaus rushed for 187 yards and a touchdown (2.07 carries per game and 6.7 yards per carry). Reed posted 117 yards and a touchdown (1.75 carries per game and 5.3 yards per carry). Both will be involved again this season, though a modest increase in carries is probably the most that should be expected here. After all, the Wahoos will need that duo to set the tone in the receiving corps and take a lot of targets there.

Another receiver to consider, however, is De’Vante Cross. He had five carries last season as a back-up quarterback at Boise State and his background there could make him an attractive option to slide back there on select plays or to hand off to on sweeps. He’s already got the experience of dissecting defenses in read-option concepts after all. Cross is expected to work almost solely at receiver this season after moonlighting at QB-WR-DB last season. Those five carries in 2017, by the way, averaged 5.4 yards per carry.

Another player expected to line up a lot like Zaccheaus is running back Lamont Atkins, who said after spring practice that he followed Zaccheaus in a lot of schemes in that Where’s Waldo type of spot. Atkins almost certainly will get some carries this season after getting a lot of special teams snaps as a true freshman a year ago. He got just one carry on offense. Maybe someone like true freshman Tavares Kelly gets a few touches in this mold too,

Overall, however, the best bet for more production through increased carries is sophomore running back PK Kier. He picked up six carries for 32 yards last season, a strong 5.2 yards per carry average. After working in that reserve role and on special teams in 2017, Kier emerged this spring as the likely No. 2 back behind Ellis. Coach Mendenhall said that Kier is a physical runner like Ellis and offensive coordinator Robert Anae said that Kier “absolutely” is in line for work this season.

Kier brings something that coaches like to the table: a decisive running style. He doesn’t mind inside or outside work – let your instincts lead you to the hole, he said back in the spring – and he’s going to plant a foot and go. If the offensive line continues along its improving development curve, that could put Kier in position to make some noise this season. At the very least, he’ll likely pick up the carries lost from Hamm’s graduation and it seems like he’ll be able to match those 99 rushing yards as well.

Other running backs like junior Chris Sharp (if he can shake his fumble troubles), sophomore big back Jamari Peacock (used only as a blocker last season), or true freshman Wayne Taulapapa (back from mission work) could figure into the overall equation as well.

A guess at a loose breakdown overall could look something like this: Ellis (195 carries), Perkins (105 carries), Kier (75 carries), Zaccheaus (30 carries), Reed (25 carries), Atkins (25 carries), Cross (15 carries), and Sharp/Peacock/Taulapapa/other (15 carries). That would put UVA at 485 carries, which fell right at the No. 65 split spot of the nation’s 130 FBS teams last season. Of course, if you use the BYU numbers from 2012-2014 that I think the staff might trend toward for the offense to hit its top potential, there could be at least 500 carries to go around even if the offense doesn’t play at the no-huddle pace of those Cougars.

The bottom line, regardless of how you break it down, is simple, though. Virginia wants to run the ball more and it wants to run the ball better. To do that, the Hoos need more options (in addition to more option plays) in the running game.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series has discussed much more. The previous articles are below. Click away.

• No. 99 – The Importance Of A Fast Start
• No. 98 – The Impact Of Early-Ending Careers
• No. 97 – Jordan Mack’s Role
• No. 96 – Welcome Back
• No. 95 – Han Solo Says
• No. 94 – Smart Addition
• No. 93 – The Center Spot
• No. 92 – Finding A Punt Returner
• No. 91 – Facing Running Quarterbacks
• No. 90 – Interceptions
• No. 89 – Kickoff Times
• No. 88 – QB Optimism Not Enough To Tilt Early Predictions Too Far
• No. 87 – It Starts With Jordan Ellis
• No. 86 – Virginia’s Most Dangerous Game
• No. 85 – The Tight End Swan Song?
• No. 84 – Teach A Man To Fish
• No. 83 – No Ordinary Joe
• No. 82 – Now Or Then
• No. 81 – How To Treat The Kickoff Rule Change
• No. 80 – Play, But Still Redshirt
• No. 79 – Which Red Zone Offense Is The Real One?
• No. 78 – Schedule For Success
• No. 77 – Who’s The Worst?
• No. 76 – ACC Coach Rankings
• No. 75 – Keep That Cold Weather Gear
• No. 74 – 1,000 Target For OZ
• No. 73 – Cross Out Cross-Training For Cross
• No. 72 – Punting Plans
• No. 71 – Redshirted … Ready?
• No. 70 – A June Jolt
• No. 69 – Who?
• No. 68 – Stops To Start Second Half
• No. 67 – Root, Root, Root For …
• No. 66 – Wildcard Extras
• No. 65 – Defense Showed Red Zone Improvement
• No. 64 – Welcome Back, Mr. Robinson
• No. 63 – The Florida Footprint
• No. 62 – True Freshmen Will Play, But Who Will Make The Most Impact?
• No. 61 – Four Fireworks-Worthy Moments In The Bronco Mendenhall Era
• No. 60 – Juan Thornhill Primed For An All-ACC Caliber Season
• No. 59 – Rebuilding The Offensive Line Is On Schedule
• No. 58 – Bouncing Back On The Defensive Line
• No. 57 – Underrated Hoos
• No. 56 – Lordy, Lordy, How ‘Bout 40?
• No. 55 – Peace Talk
• No. 54 – Hoos’ Handle On Social Media Bodes Well For Future Recruiting
• No. 53 – Filling The Void At Wide Receiver
• No. 52 – The Sixth-Year Seniors
• No. 51 – Borrowing A Burning Question
• No. 50 – Beat Tech!
• No. 49 – A Resolute Leader
• No. 48 – The Perkins Theorem
• No. 47 – Beat Pitt!
• No. 46 – A Look At Virginia Football’s 2018 Walk-On Class
• No. 45 – I Sense A Trend
• No. 44 – The Need For (More) Speed
• No. 43 – Progress With Penalties
• No. 42 – Preseason All-ACC Musings
• No. 41 – Designing Sacks
• No. 40 – Go Long
• No. 39 – Please Stay Healthy!
• No. 38 – Sorting Out The Secondary
• No. 37 – Preseason Injury Report Concerns
• No. 36 – The Third Down Swap
• No. 35 – The Last Time