In Week 2, road teams changed the entire complexion of the college football season. Appalachian State, Marshall, and Georgia Southern produced shocking upsets of traditional powerhouse programs (and each got paid over $1 million for their troubles). Washington State, a week removed from needing a goal-line stand to defeat Idaho, defeated Wisconsin in Madison. Kentucky and Tennessee solidified their Top 25 resumes with difficult victories at Florida and Pittsburgh, respectively.
It was a helpful reminder to keep “homefield advantage” in its proper perspective when placing sports bets. Yes, players tend to play better when they can sleep in their own beds and are able to communicate on the field without thousands of opposing fans screaming in their ears. However, even the most hostile home environment is not enough to mask poor play on the field. Sportsbooks incorporate the value of playing at home into their models as well, and frequently prey on the public’s tendency to pick home teams and favorites.
So don’t be afraid to pick road teams if you have confidence in their abilities. I have several “road warriors” on my bet slip this week for you to choose from.
Virginia Week 3 Forecast
- Old Dominion +9 at Virginia. Under 52.5.
Last week, I encouraged you to avoid overreacting to a single performance. It’s been difficult to heed my own advice following Virginia’s humbling 24-3 loss at Illinois. Nothing worked for the Cavaliers on offense. As Editor Kris Wright documented earlier this week, Virginia’s offensive line struggled mightily with pass blocking.
Brennan Armstrong was sacked five times and never looked comfortable in the pocket. Receivers did not have the time to create separation, which is something we have not seen from a Virginia-coached team in some time. The Hoos frequently found themselves in long third-down situations because of poor play-calling and execution on first and second downs. Unsurprisingly, this resulted in 0 conversions on 15 third down attempts. The line conversion on the day came courtesy of an Illinois penalty.
At this critical juncture of the season, UVA must find a way to protect Armstrong against a confident Old Dominion program that already has a victory against Virginia Tech this season. The Monarchs have an undersized but opportunistic defense. Despite yielding 190 yards on the ground to the Hokies, ODU intercepted quarterback Grant Wells four times and scored a special teams touchdown off a bad snap on a field goal attempt. These mistakes are exactly what Virginia must avoid to get back into the win column. East Carolina was able to comfortably beat ODU by 18 last week in large part because the Pirates did not commit a turnover.
Unfortunately, there is no easy fix for the Cavaliers’ inexperience and lack of cohesion on the offensive line. Coordinator Des Kitchings may have to increase blocking support from tight ends and running backs to ensure Armstrong has enough time to find his talented receivers in space. I would also like to see more quarterback rollouts (much like the 62-yard completion to Lavel Davis in what was Virginia’s best play from scrimmage against Illinois) to give Armstrong more time to assess the defense and run if necessary.
This will be our first opportunity to assess Tony Elliott’s ability to get his team reorganized after a disappointing performance. I think the Cavaliers get it done this week, but I remain very concerned about the long-term prospects for the offense. 24-16 Virginia over ODU.
Week 3 Best Selections
- Season record: 3-5-2. Like Tony Elliott, I had a “rough day at the office” last Saturday with my selections. Time to confidently bounce back by investing in talented road teams.
Florida State -2.5 at Louisville (Friday): Louisville’s offense has been terrible in its first two games. In an upset victory at Central Florida last week, the Cardinals were only successful when quarterback Malik Cunningham was able to scramble for yards. He was mostly ineffective from the pocket, completing only 48% of his passes on 29 attempts. As talented as Cunningham is as an athlete, I do not think Louisville can win when the offense is so one-dimensional. Despite giving up 114 rushing yards to dual-threat quarterback Jaylen Daniels in the opener against LSU, the Seminoles front seven was disruptive with pass pressure the entire game. Coming off a bye week, Florida State should be well-prepared to face another team with an explosive running quarterback. Though a Cardinals win would help the season bet, I think the Noles have more talent and better offensive balance.
Mississippi -16.5 at Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets did not look particularly impressive against Western Carolina last week. Against a Catamount defense that had just surrendered 392 passing yards and 5 touchdowns to Charleston Southern the week before, Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims could only muster an 8-of-17 passing performance with 100 yards and an interception. There is simply not enough offensive talent in Geoff Collins’ program to keep up with Mississippi. After a middling Week 1 performance against Troy, the Rebels’ offense impressed in a romp over Central Arkansas in Week 2. Lane Kiffin, for all his foibles, has an established track record of constructing dynamic offenses. Last season, Mississippi ranked sixth in the FBS in yards gained per game despite playing in the SEC. Though laying 16.5 points is a lot for a road team, this game has the potential to be a blowout.
Western Kentucky +7 at Indiana: After engineering the nation’s best passing offense a year ago, Travis Helton has opted for a more balanced approach to the Hilltoppers’ offense in 2022. The greater commitment to the run game should serve Helton well in his trip to Bloomington. Despite the reduction of passing plays, Western Kentucky is still an offensive juggernaut, averaging 400 yards and 43.5 points per game. Indiana’s defense has conceded 216 rushing yards per game to open the season (114th nationally) and allowed opponents to convert on nearly 53% of third-down plays (110th nationally). Even with a 2-0 record, the Hoosiers have not looked particularly impressive in games against Illinois or Idaho. In a game that looks even on paper, I’ll take the points.
Purdue ML at Syracuse: The Boilermakers shook off a close Week 1 loss to Penn State by walloping Indiana State 56-0 on Saturday. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell has looked sharp to start the season, throwing for 576 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He should be in position for another stellar performance against an Orange defense that has allowed quarterbacks to complete nearly 79% of their passes. Syracuse heavily relies on running back Sean Tucker to propel the offense and maintain time of possession. However, Purdue has an above average run defense, conceding only 2.2 yards per carry so far this season. I like the Boilermakers to win this game in what is the program’s first trip to the state of New York since 1941.
Miami at Texas A&M Over 44.5 points: Just for variety’s sake, I will add an “over” pick to my list of road teams covering the spread. The total for this game has been suppressed because of the Aggies’ abysmal offensive performance against Appalachian State. Texas A&M gained only 9 first downs against a team that had just allowed North Carolina to score 63 points in the previous week. Though Jimbo Fisher’s offense is unlikely to light up the scoreboard any time soon, I am betting on some reversion to the mean after a ghastly showing. On the other sideline, Miami has played well offensively behind the stellar play of quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. He has completed 73.3% of his passes this season with a passer rating of 174.4. I see this as a 28-21 game with either team having an opportunity to win.
Parlay/Teaser of the Week
- Season record: 0-2
For the second straight week, I fell victim to rotten luck at the end of a game. Rodrigo Blankenship, now formerly of the Colts, pushed a potential game-winning field goal wide with two minutes left in overtime. If karma exists, I am surely due some good fortune with my teaser this week.
- NC State (-10 –> -3) vs. Texas Tech: After an emotional overtime win against Houston last week, you have to wonder how much the Red Raiders still have in the tank. Back-up quarterback Donovan Smith has performed admirably in relief of the injured Tyler Shough. However, the 3 interceptions and 34 QBR rating against the Cougars show the limits of his abilities. After a dicey Week 1 victory over ECU, the Wolfpack should be eager to prove that the preseason hype was warranted.
- Notre Dame (-11 –> -4) vs. California: There is no way the Irish would only be an 11-point favorite if not for the shocking home defeat against Marshall. Bettors are rightly rattled by Notre Dame’s offensive inefficiency with Tyler Buchner at the helm. However, with Buchner out for the season with a shoulder injury, the offense gets an opportunity for a hard reboot with Drew Pyne as the new starter. Just a week ago, Notre Dame was praised for keeping Ohio State’s dynamic offense at bay for most of the game. Even though there is cause for concern in South Bend, there is no reason the Irish should lose a game to a mediocre California team.
Random Facts To Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
For a weekend filled with upsets and near misses, it was a staggeringly bad time to bet on Top 25 favorites. Of the 12 ranked teams that were favorites in Week 2 and played against FBS competition, only four (Arkansas, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, and BYU) were able to cover the spread. Additionally, Georgia and Clemson could not cover against FCS opponents. Alabama, the team with the most money on it at sportsbooks, did not cover either at Texas.
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
