99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff

One of the hot topics this week on TheSabre.com’s message boards has been, not surprisingly, the defensive line. That’s been a theme in the “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series too simply because that unit is hard to project due to inexperience and potential depth concerns that could press true freshmen into heavy action. Or as message board poster PWillis52 noted due to the unclear outlook, the floor for the group is pretty low while the ceiling may yet be high.

Expected Ohio State transfer Dylan Thompson, who missed all of preseason camp while finishing course work for his undergraduate degree, only fueled the defensive line chatter when he Tweeted that he completed those requirements and would be on the way to Charlottesville on Friday. Thompson could help provide some depth as an older player that’s been through college practices before at OSU.

So why does the inexperience and potential depth issues raise so many concerns? The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series rolls on.

No. 9 – Opponents’ Plan: Run It At ‘Em

Earlier in this series, an entry discussed ways to substitute around the defensive line to help cover for the inexperience and depth concerns. Virginia’s nickel package at the start of last year, for example, was a 2-4-5 alignment with an extra defensive back in place of a lineman. With multiple safeties capable of taking snaps this season, that could be an option.

With that said, the main reason defensive line inexperience and depth is concerning is stopping the run. Simply put, you can’t win if you can’t stop the run. Having big and capable defensive linemen helps the defense’s chances of getting that done. After all, you’re trading something in the neighborhood of 30 to 90 pounds when you put a linebacker or defensive back on the field instead of a lineman. Plus, with the linemen starting plays at the line of scrimmage, they can at the very least eat up blockers or collapse gaps vs. someone in the back eight having to crash downhill to do the same thing. Long story short: there are ways to scheme around it, but having bigger bodies up front often helps against run plays.

Of course, even that doesn’t guarantee the defense can stop the run. That’s where the inexperience part raises questions. The Cavaliers featured future NFL Draft picks Andrew Brown and Micah Kiser in the front seven last season with run-helping tackler Quin Blanding at safety last season and still struggled to consistently shut down opponents’ rushing attacks. Now that those three are gone, the task figures to be even more challenging potentially.

That’s one reason, perhaps, that Bronco Mendenhall placed a heavy emphasis on stopping the run this offseason. The chief focal points for improving the run D were a better job executing run fits, increasing physical play, and beating blocks. The numbers explain why, particularly over the back half of last season when the team finished 1-6 over the final seven games. That included the debacle against Navy in the Military Bowl when the Cavaliers simply couldn’t stop the run and got plowed under a frozen tundra in Annapolis.

Over the course of 13 games, UVA’s run defense did not compare well to its FBS peers. Virginia ranked 102nd nationally by allowing 199.31 rushing yards per game and tied for 85th nationally by allowing 4.65 yards per carry.

Here is the season split in half along with averages, including removing some outliers in each half of the year:

• W&M: 41 carries, 168 yards, 4.1 yards per carry
• Indiana: 41 carries, 111 yards, 2.7 yards per carry
• UConn: 41 carries, 207 yards, 5.0 yards per carry
• Boise State: 24 carries, 30 yards, 1.2 yards per carry
• Duke: 32 carries, 131 yards, 4.1 yards per carry
• UNC: 35 carries, 211 yards, 6.0 yards per carry
• 6-game average: 36 carries, 143.0 yards, 4.01 yards per carry
• 5-game average without BSU: 38 carries, 165.6 yards, 4.4 yards per carry

• Boston College: 47 carries, 237 yards, 5.0 yards per carry
• Pittsburgh: 40 carries, 176 yards, 4.4 yards per carry
• Georgia Tech: 52 carries, 220 yards, 4.2 yards per carry
• Louisville: 43 carries, 298 yards, 6.9 yards per carry
• Miami: 32 carries, 148 yards, 4.6 yards per carry
• Virginia Tech: 53 carries, 202 yards, 3.8 yards per carry
• Navy: 76 carries, 452 yards, 5.9 yards per carry
• 7-game average: 49 carries, 247.6 yards, 5.05 yards per carry
• 5-game average without GT/Navy: 43 carries, 212.2 yards, 4.93 yards per carry

None of those averages look particularly good. The best numbers among the group were the 143.0 yards per game allowed and the 4.01 yards per carry allowed over the first six games when UVA owned a 5-1 record. The per game number if sustained over the course of the season still would have landed 42nd in the national rankings; the per carry average would have ranked a respectable 49th. The worst numbers are, well, much worse. The 247.6 yards per game allowed over the back half of the season would have ranked 126th nationally as a season-long average, while the 5.05 yards per carry would have landed 109th.

The other thing those numbers show is that opponents in the second half of the season clearly decided to run the ball right at Virginia’s defense, a tactic that is highly likely to be copied with the question marks up front early in 2018. The second half opponents averaged 13 more rushing attempts per game than the first six foes of the year. That number is boosted by option-heavy Georgia Tech and Navy, but even removing those two shows an increase of seven carries per game. The final seven opponents averaged nearly 105 more rushing yards per game; throw out the two option teams and the remaining quintet still gained 70 more rushing yards per game.

Other factors likely contributed to the decline in the second half of the season too. Virginia held the lead in many of the games during the first half of the schedule, which forced teams to challenge the Hoos’ much stronger pass defense more often. That reversed itself for many of the games in the second half of the schedule. UVA lost the field position battle in many of the later games in the season as well. The Cavaliers also rarely turned the ball over in the first six games (just four times total) so the defense didn’t face many sudden change or short field situations. In the latter half of the season, they committed 15 turnovers in the seven games.

Looking at situational statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com doesn’t show much success either:

• Virginia ranked 90th in rushing yards per game allowed at home (182.29) and 102nd on the road (219.17).
• Virginia ranked 92nd in rushing yards per game allowed in conference games (202.88) and 102nd in non-conference games (193.60).
• Virginia ranked 89th in rushing yards allowed in the first half (1,203) and 115th in the second half (1,388).
• Virginia ranked 101st in rushing yards allowed on first down (1,280), 96th on second down (835), 111th on third down (375), and 127th on fourth down (101).
• Virginia ranked 111th on third-and-short/1-3 yards to go (199).
• Virginia ranked 84th on runs inside the opponents’ 20-yard line (321) and 104th inside its own 20-yard line/red zone (301)

In other words, regardless of how you slice it up, UVA’s run defense wasn’t very good last season. So improvement must be made across the board not just in one area. That’s one reason fans have some concerns when considering the personnel questions on the defensive line entering the 2018 season too. No matter what, it’s an area that must improve if Virginia is going to sustain success again as a program.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series has discussed much more. The previous articles are below. Click away.

• No. 99 – The Importance Of A Fast Start
• No. 98 – The Impact Of Early-Ending Careers
• No. 97 – Jordan Mack’s Role
• No. 96 – Welcome Back
• No. 95 – Han Solo Says
• No. 94 – Smart Addition
• No. 93 – The Center Spot
• No. 92 – Finding A Punt Returner
• No. 91 – Facing Running Quarterbacks
• No. 90 – Interceptions
• No. 89 – Kickoff Times
• No. 88 – QB Optimism Not Enough To Tilt Early Predictions Too Far
• No. 87 – It Starts With Jordan Ellis
• No. 86 – Virginia’s Most Dangerous Game
• No. 85 – The Tight End Swan Song?
• No. 84 – Teach A Man To Fish
• No. 83 – No Ordinary Joe
• No. 82 – Now Or Then
• No. 81 – How To Treat The Kickoff Rule Change
• No. 80 – Play, But Still Redshirt
• No. 79 – Which Red Zone Offense Is The Real One?
• No. 78 – Schedule For Success
• No. 77 – Who’s The Worst?
• No. 76 – ACC Coach Rankings
• No. 75 – Keep That Cold Weather Gear
• No. 74 – 1,000 Target For OZ
• No. 73 – Cross Out Cross-Training For Cross
• No. 72 – Punting Plans
• No. 71 – Redshirted … Ready?
• No. 70 – A June Jolt
• No. 69 – Who?
• No. 68 – Stops To Start Second Half
• No. 67 – Root, Root, Root For …
• No. 66 – Wildcard Extras
• No. 65 – Defense Showed Red Zone Improvement
• No. 64 – Welcome Back, Mr. Robinson
• No. 63 – The Florida Footprint
• No. 62 – True Freshmen Will Play, But Who Will Make The Most Impact?
• No. 61 – Four Fireworks-Worthy Moments In The Bronco Mendenhall Era
• No. 60 – Juan Thornhill Primed For An All-ACC Caliber Season
• No. 59 – Rebuilding The Offensive Line Is On Schedule
• No. 58 – Bouncing Back On The Defensive Line
• No. 57 – Underrated Hoos
• No. 56 – Lordy, Lordy, How ‘Bout 40?
• No. 55 – Peace Talk
• No. 54 – Hoos’ Handle On Social Media Bodes Well For Future Recruiting
• No. 53 – Filling The Void At Wide Receiver
• No. 52 – The Sixth-Year Seniors
• No. 51 – Borrowing A Burning Question
• No. 50 – Beat Tech!
• No. 49 – A Resolute Leader
• No. 48 – The Perkins Theorem
• No. 47 – Beat Pitt!
• No. 46 – A Look At Virginia Football’s 2018 Walk-On Class
• No. 45 – I Sense A Trend
• No. 44 – The Need For (More) Speed
• No. 43 – Progress With Penalties
• No. 42 – Preseason All-ACC Musings
• No. 41 – Designing Sacks
• No. 40 – Go Long
• No. 39 – Please Stay Healthy!
• No. 38 – Sorting Out The Secondary
• No. 37 – Preseason Injury Report Concerns
• No. 36 – The Third Down Swap
• No. 35 – The Last Time
• No. 34 – More Rushing Options
• No. 33 – Opponents Say
• No. 32 – Preseason Practice Watch List
• No. 31 – Snowden Emerging
• No. 30 – Deja Vu With Dubois?
• No. 29 – Reduce Opponents’ Explosive Touchdowns
• No. 28 – Nelson’s Encore
• No. 27 – Ranking The Positions On Offense From Strongest To Weakest
• No. 26 – Hold On To That Ball Petey!
• No. 25 – R.J., The Elder
• No. 24 – Bratton’s Road Of Resilience
• No. 23 – Tag Team Linebacker
• No. 22 – Numbers Begin To Fill In
• No. 21 – Ranking The Positions On Defense From Strongest To Weakest
• No. 20 – Eli’s Gold
• No. 19 – Covering Punts
• No. 18 – I Need A Sub!
• No. 17 – Is Mejia The Answer Virginia Needs At Place-Kicker?
• No. 16 – More Position Changes In Store For The First Years?
• No. 15 – Moore More Ready
• No. 14 – German Flair
• No. 13 – Jersey Selection Musings
• No. 12 – Mystery Man
• No. 11 – Increasing Explosive Touchdown Plays
• No. 10 – Countdown Wishes