We have reached the end of the 2023 college football regular season. While it did not end in glory for Virginia (or some of my bets), there is still time for one last hurrah. We enter championship weekend with significant uncertainty around the College Football Playoff and the possibility for complete chaos if a couple upsets occur.
I will be glued to the couch starting on Friday night to watch all the action; let’s see if we can make a profit on these games as well.
Virginia Week 14 Forecast
- Season Record: 7-5 on spread, 6-6 on over/unders
With the loss to Virginia Tech, Virginia failed to meet its Vegas win total for the season (3.5). However, betting on the Hoos throughout the year could have been a lucrative endeavor. With so many close games, Virginia posted an 8-4 record against the spread and went 8-2-2 in going over the points total for each game. For most fans, this will provide little consolation, but it does suggest that the team was more competitive than expected.
Without a Virginia football game to write about for nine months, I decided to review my preseason bets to see which ones have cashed and what is still at stake this weekend. Overall, it was a strong showing from the version of me that existed in August!
Season Overs: 4-2-1. I was very pleased with my selections in this category. Oklahoma State, NC State, Kansas, and Appalachian State easily cleared their numbers without any drama. Things looked promising for Air Force as well at 8-0, but the Falcons fell apart in the final four weeks of the season and could not find a necessary ninth win. Only my Wisconsin pick was a surprising failure, as the Badgers struggled in Luke Fickell’s first year at the helm.
Season Unders: 4-3. I underestimated the talent of Georgia and Florida State coming into the season (though the Seminoles did have a few close calls). However, my biggest miss was also one of the country’s most surprising teams: Arizona. The Wildcats won their last six games and gave USC and Washington significant scares. My winning picks – Wake Forest, Navy, Nebraska, and Texas Tech – all fell short of expectations by at least a game. You have to enjoy the few and far between moments when a bet is comfortably in hand.
Conference Predictions: 2-6. With several longshot bets placed with conference bets, this was always going to be my worst category. However, I can still pick up a third win if Texas can take care of business against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys did provide my biggest longshot win of the season; with a dramatic overtime win against BYU last week, Oklahoma State cashed a +1600 bet to appear in the Big 12 Championship. That thrilling win was offset by Air Force’s collapse, keeping them out of the Mountain West Conference title game. That seemed like a lock to in Week 9 before upsets and injuries derailed the Falcons’ momentum.
ACC Player Props And Heisman Trophy Predictions: 3-2. Drake Maye and North Carolina faltered late in the season, Mitch Griffis was benched for Wake Forest, and Riley Leonard missed time with ankle injuries. I don’t like winning under bets because of injury, but I’m also not going to return the money to the sportsbook.
The biggest surprise for me was the struggles of Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Though he played through injuries in the back half of the season, I could not have predicted he would throw 12 interceptions and get benched in favor of freshman Emory Williams.
On the Heisman front, my +1100 bet on Jayden Daniels is looking pretty sweet at the moment. It is basically a two man race between him and Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. Perhaps voters will punish Daniels for LSU’s three losses but given that he has put together one of the best seasons for a quarterback in history, I believe he will emerge as the winner. Since 1971, no Heisman winning quarterback has ranked higher in adjusted pass yards per attempt (13.6), passer rating (208.0), or rushing yards per carry (8.4) than Daniels.
Week 14 Best Selections
- Season record: 32-35-1.
A 4-2 week has me in championship form. Can I make it to .500 with picks on these conference title games?
Washington +10 vs. Oregon: Neither team has lost a game since the epic mid-October clash in Seattle. With a win, Washington secures a spot in the College Football Playoff. Oregon’s path is less guaranteed in certain chaos scenarios, though it would be tough to keep the Ducks out as a 12-1 Pac-12 Champion.
It is a little surprising that the undefeated Huskies are catching 10 points in this rematch, but I understand the skepticism. Oregon probably should have won the first meeting, which came down to a missed field goal and several overly aggressive play calls from Dan Lanning. The Ducks have been a machine this season, ranking second nationally in scoring margin in games against FBS teams (+25.3). Washington’s path has looked shakier in recent weeks, winning one-score games against Utah, Oregon State, and Washington State.
If forced to choose straight up, I would side with Oregon and its offense that has accumulated 540.2 yards per game. However, this spread simply has too many points. Led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the Huskies are right behind Oregon as the nation’s second best passing team with 345.5 yards accumulated per game. Penix has 32 passing touchdowns on the year and will eclipse 4,000 passing yards on the season in this game barring an injury. Close calls in the last few weeks have shown that Washington can win under pressure against talented opponents. I see this as a thrilling rematch that will go down to the wire.
Texas -14.5 vs. Oklahoma State: This line opened at 10.5 but has been moving steadily toward Texas all week. I understand the reasoning. With quarterback Quinn Ewers back in the lineup, the Longhorns demolished intrastate rival Texas Tech by 50 points last week. Despite a season-ending injury to Jonathan Brooks, the running game has continued to produce with Jaydon Blue and CJ Baxter anchoring the backfield. The defense, often a thorn in Steve Sarkisian’s side, has played great as well, leading the nation in stops on third down.
Despite my optimism on Oklahoma State this year, it is also fair to say that Mike Gundy’s team has been relatively lucky. This is a team that just three weeks ago was on the losing end of a 45-3 smackdown against UCF and needed overtime against BYU to make the title game at all. Quarterback Alan Bowman has more interceptions than touchdowns. The Cowboys’ defense ranks 113th in total defense, allowing 423.2 yards per game. This really does feel like a “nice to be here” situation for Oklahoma State. In its last year in the Big 12, Texas will hoist the conference trophy for the first time since 2009.
Boise State -2 vs. UNLV: Boise State has had a turbulent season to say the least. After starting the season as one of the favorites to win the Mountain West, surprising losses to Memphis, Colorado State, and Fresno State resulted in the dismissal of head coach Andy Avalos. However, a three-game winning streak to end the season allowed the Broncos to squeak into the title game (with an assist from computer rankings).
Avalos used a two-quarterback system that led to offensive inconsistencies and divided the locker room. With Maddox Madsen injured, interim head coach Spencer Danielson has fully committed to Taylen Green. Green’s dual threat abilities have allowed Boise State to average 36 points in the last two contests.
UNLV has defied expectations all season and should have a significant home field advantage playing in Allegiant Stadium. However, several underlying stats have me concerned about their ability to win this game. The Rebels have allowed explosive passing plays all year, averaging 8.1 yards allowed per pass on the season (111th nationally). UNLV also ranks outside of the top 100 in penalties committed and penalty yards per game. Barry Odom’s squad has relied heavily on the running game to propel its offensive success, but Boise State has been solid against the run all season, allowing just 127.2 yards per game. I expect this to be another close game, but the Broncos should put an end to UNLV’s Cinderella season.
Georgia -6 vs. Alabama: It makes sense that Georgia is favored given the 29-game winning streak, playing the title game in Atlanta, and the dominant nature of how the Bulldogs have looked this season. The average margin of victory over FBS opponents is +22.3 this year, and Kirby Smart’s squad has barely been tested.
That will change this weekend with a talented Alabama team that has formed a more cohesive identity in the second half of the year. Still, I think the weakness of the Crimson Tide’s offensive line will hinder the chances of an upset. Jalen Milroe has been under constant duress this season, as Alabama quarterbacks have been sacked on an astounding 12.97% of drop backs (130th in the FBS). The line has also struggled to open up running lanes for tailbacks, leading to a pedestrian 4.45 yards per carry.
Rush production will be even more difficult to come by in this game, as Georgia allows only 117.8 yards on the ground per game and Alabama’s star back Jase McClellan has been ruled out with an injury. It doesn’t feel good to lay points against a Nick Saban coached team, but I really think his roster does not have the talent to win this game.
Florida State -2.5 vs. Louisville: If Jordan Travis hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury against North Alabama, this line would be closer to a touchdown. Back-up Tate Rodemaker played competently in a hostile Gainesville environment, but there are rumors that he might be in concussion protocol and unable to play.
Though I am concerned by the lack of clarity at quarterback for the Seminoles, I’m going to stick with them because they have enough talent on the rest of the roster to get the job done. Florida State’s defensive line is filled with NFL ready talent and averages nearly 7 tackles for loss per game. The front seven ranks in the top 10 in sack rate, and the secondary has allowed the lowest completion percentage for opposing quarterbacks this season (47.35%).
Louisville has a disruptive defense as well, which could lead to a low-scoring game. However, as last week’s loss to Kentucky showed, the Cardinals have significant flaws. Quarterback Jack Plummer has thrown an interception in three straight games. Turnovers also allowed the Wildcats to score 38 points despite being outgained by 114 yards. Even though I love the Wahoos, needing a fourth quarter rally to defeat Virginia at home does not instill a lot of confidence. I simply do not trust Louisville, regardless of who plays quarterback for Florida State.
Upset Special
- Record to date: 6-7.
Despite the losing record in this category, the increased vigs for these games have allowed me to turn a profit on the season. I have one more pick that isn’t really an upset based on the odds, but spiritually it feels like one.
Michigan and Iowa Over 35 Total Points: Iowa just completed one of the most improbable seasons in college football history. The Hawkeyes’ offense averages 246.3 yards per game, worst in the FBS. Before this year’s 10-win season, the most wins a college football team had previously produced with fewer than 250 yards of total offense was four. This offensive futility, paired with one of the nation’s best defenses, is why Iowa has gone under the expected point total in the last seven games.
Michigan has an even better defense, allowing only 246.8 yards per game (2nd in the FBS) and under one point per drive. Unfortunately for Iowa, the Wolverines are too talented offensively to simply play field position with a never-ending series of punts. Michigan has scored at least 30 points in 11 of 12 games this season. If you take those points as a given, you just need a couple field goals or a pick six from either team to get the rest of the way to the over. If Iowa contributes anything to the scoreboard, consider it a bonus.
Random Fact to Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
With the regular season now concluded, we can take one final tally of the teams that won and lost bettors money this fall. Only three FBS teams managed to win double-digit games against the spread:
- New Mexico State (11-2)
- Arizona (10-2)
- UNLV (10-2)
The Aggies and Rebels have one more opportunity this weekend to add to the win total as underdogs in their conference championship games. While betting on these teams made you money, choosing Vanderbilt was only slightly more lucrative than investing in FTX. The Commodores dramatically underachieved this season, winning only two games against the spread.
Finally, I want to thank all my readers for joining me for a third season of this ongoing segment. I know many of you are non-gamblers who are specifically focused on Virginia sports. Still, I hope you found something valuable or interesting in these columns to further your college football watching experience. You can find me on the message boards offering questionable betting advice on college basketball any time!
SabreBetrics is written by a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
